Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

[Cheddar Please]

What should we expect for the upcoming weekday grosses this week

[AniNate]

Quiet place is tracking pretty well, and despicable me looks like it will be a reliably huge box office boost after that, so I'm not super concerned about it being just a one movie thing. 

 

I actually did always think this year could end up ahead of 2023 overall still because a lot of the big guns are stacked towards the end of the year. May was a lot more disappointing than I expected so that had me wavering in my beliefs, but inside out has pretty much offset that disappointment now so I think we've still got a pretty decent shot.

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

I don't wanna inspire any kind of doom and gloom about the box office right now, but as amazing as it is that Inside Out 2 just pulled a Top Gun: Maverick-level hold this weekend, it can't be the only film that carries the box office for a while. 

 

Whether it's a tall order to ask or not, we need both A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 to perform well next weekend. To at least show that the box office can have much more variety and won't be living or dying by Inside Out 2 until at least Deadpool and Wolverine comes out. 

 

So, let's all hope that next weekend we can get a somewhat healthy top five, especially since we still have two films from May in the top five. In any other summer, that's not normal. 

 

 

QP seems on track to open at worst 45 m so that should be good. As for Horizons it will depend on if the Boomers ignore the reviews and the 3 hour length.

[AniNate]

Would've been nice if Horizon could draw the boomers in but with the weak reviews I wouldn't blame them for staying away. Not really counting on it to save adult cinema anymore. 

 

It's probably gonna be up to the late year festival/awards fodder again to bring the old crowd back, but for now I'll take what I can get as long as it's bringing net positive results.

 

 

Edited June 23 by AniNate

[WittyUsername]

Apart from Top Gun: Maverick, when was the last time a noteworthy movie managed to bring in an older audience? 

[Ryan C]

I actually do think A Quiet Place: Day One will do ok. It's looking to land between $40M-$50M, which would be very good and assuming the budget isn't too high, it should finally give the horror genre their first bonafide hit of the year. 

 

However, because it's a prequel, there's always that chance it will only appeal to the hardcore fans and that there won't be much walk-up business. In short, it could become the next Furiosa. 

 

Both aren't the same kind of prequels (Day One doesn't require you to have seen the first two Quiet Place movies), but I just fear that worse case scenario could happen, especially since I don't think many people were clamoring for a prequel to a Quiet Place. 

 

We'll see and I don't think it's gonna meet the same fate as Furiosa, but that movie has almost made me opposed to the idea of a prequel because it's almost basically setting yourself up for a lower return. 

[AniNate]

Sound of freedom last year, would prefer to not have to rely on... that kind of movie though

 

 

Edited June 23 by AniNate

[Ryan C]

Just now, AniNate said:

Sound of freedom last year, would prefer to not have to rely on... that kind of move though

 

I was just gonna say Sound of Freedom, but it really should've been a much better and less controversial movie that brought older people back to theaters. 

 

We need more Top Gun: Mavericks and less of the Sound of Freedoms. 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Would've been nice if Horizon could draw the boomers in but with the weak reviews I wouldn't blame them for staying away. Not really counting on it to save adult cinema anymore. 

 

It's probably gonna be up to the late year festival/awards fodder again to bring the old crowd back, but for now I'll take what I can get as long as it's bringing net positive results.

 

 

In the end Costner should have made a better movie or movies. He has always had a tendency to think people want long drawn out inflated movies. It worked for Dances With Wolves but not so much Wyatt Earp or the Postman 

[AniNate]

Oppenheimer did draw a lot of older audiences too, like 60% over 25 apparently. It was a movie in that mold even if the Nolan and meme of it all made it seem more like a young, hip movie. 

 

 

Edited June 23 by AniNate

[elinio]

23 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Quiet place is tracking pretty well, and despicable me looks like it will be a reliably huge box office boost after that, so I'm not super concerned about it being just a one movie thing. 

 

I actually did always think this year could end up ahead of 2023 overall still because a lot of the big guns are stacked towards the end of the year. May was a lot more disappointing than I expected so that had me wavering in my beliefs, but inside out has pretty much offset that disappointment now so I think we've still got a pretty decent shot.

Yes, i agree with you. We knew  January, February and April would be awful because the slate was weak. The only failure is May .

 

September (Bettlejuice, The Wild Robot, Transformers) , October (Joker 2, Smile 2, Venom 3) , November (Gladiator, Red One, Moana 2, Wicked), December (Mufasa, Sonic 3, Lord of the Rings) will be better than 2023 where the strike had big effects with the calendar (Dune 2 , Ghostbusters for example).

 

At the end of August, 2024 will be probably 25-28% behind 2023, but after that it will be a different story. 

 

September, October, November, December were quite weak in 2023 with only 7 movies who grossed more than 100m during this period (Taylor Swift, Five night at Freddy's, Aquaman, Migration, Wonka, Hunger Games, Trolls) and only one movie (Wonka with 218m ) grossed more than 200m.   It was a very weak end of year.

Edited June 23 by elinio

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Oppenheimer did draw a lot of older audiences too, like 60% over 25 apparently

Well if you consider over 25 old. The over 35 audience was shockingly low for a movie that should have brought them in droves.

[WittyUsername]

 I wouldn’t consider Oppenheimer to be a particularly “old” skewing movie. At least not anymore than the average R-rated movie that isn’t horror or based on a comic book. 

Edited June 23 by WittyUsername

[vafrow]

So what's the general consensus on where BBRoD is ending up. It's now pretty much at same point as BB4L, with weekend haul slightly higher at this point, better positioned for weekdays with the summer. Competition is a bit more, but a busier season. Plus, BB4L probably had $5M or so cut off with the pandemic.

 

People seem to talk about this as hitting $200M, but the target should probably be $215M-$220M or so, right? 

[JimmyB]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Uh The Fall Guy, Apes, IF, Garfield are all having small week to week drops like movies did back then. I mean it's mostly because we are in this post strike reduced schedule where not many movies are coming out but still love to see it.

Eh, The Fall Guy isnt having better drops than Bullet Train or Lost City. IF and Garfield are kids movies later in their run having 23-24% drops isnt usually, especially at these lower grosses.  Apes will hit 3x it's opening weekend number. It's certainly not like the late 80s or early 90s.  It's nice these movies arent dropping off a cliff and can do 3 - 3.5x times their opening weekend.

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

So what's the general consensus on where BBRoD is ending up. It's now pretty much at same point as BB4L, with weekend haul slightly higher at this point, better positioned for weekdays with the summer. Competition is a bit more, but a busier season. Plus, BB4L probably had $5M or so cut off with the pandemic.

 

People seem to talk about this as hitting $200M, but the target should probably be $215M-$220M or so, right? 

 

I think we will know more on where it will end up after next weekend. 

 

See how it holds against A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 and then we can make a pretty good guess on if it will hit $200M or not. 

 

As of right now though, it's chances are looking solid and that would also give it a higher domestic gross than both Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire and Kung Fu Panda 4. Movies that opened higher, but weren't as leggy. 

[AniNate]

I think all the kids movies, inside out included, benefited from this past week's heat wave throughout the entire east of the country. No one wants to go outside and not much other stuff you can do as a parent to distract your kids for two hours.

[Noctis]

Inside Out's numbers are fucking INSANITY!

 

The fact that it will hit $1b by next week is just crazy...the overseas drop is even more impressive than its domestic one. By the time it's July 7th (in 11 days), the film will be about to hit Incredibles 2's WW gross to become the highest grossing Pixar film worldwide. Either way, by next weekend, it will be very close to $1b. At the rate that it's been holding, it could feasibly hit it. 

 

$60m weekdays + $60m weekend = $475m DOM. And overseas, let's give it $75m weekdays and $105m weekend for a $300m week worldwide. Yeah, it can actually hit $1b by next weekend. Fucking crazy.

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I think all the kids movies, inside out included, benefited from this past week's heat wave throughout the entire east of the country. No one wants to go outside and not much other stuff you can do as a parent to distract your kids for two hours.

 

It's actually funny because my local theater is at a mall and they are having AC problems. So, most of the places inside there (including the theater) have been closed for a couple of days. 

 

I was gonna try and see both The Bikeriders and The Exorcism this weekend, but couldn't because of the theater closure.

 

Hopefully that issue gets fixed soon, because I got both A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon to see next weekend, and I don't wanna have a backlog of stuff that I have to catch up on. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Eh, The Fall Guy isnt having better drops than Bullet Train or Lost City. IF and Garfield are kids movies later in their run having 23-24% drops isnt usually, especially at these lower grosses.  Apes will hit 3x it's opening weekend number. It's certainly not like the late 80s or early 90s.  It's nice these movies arent dropping off a cliff and can do 3 - 3.5x times their opening weekend.

Okay. Not exactly like then but as close as we are going to get in the post covid  age of streaming era. The Fall Guy could have easily crapped out at 75-80 , Apes not much more than War did, IF about 90-95, Garfield 80.  Like I said it's more the empty post strike schedule  helping them but still like seeing movies  hold like that.