08/09 WEEKEND: DP&W 53.8, IEWU 50, Borderlands 8.6 ​💣💣💣

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

I'd like to know how these guys are getting 53 million. I used openheimer's numbers from its third weekend and I only got Deadpool and Wolverine up to 47 million. It must be having a huge increase today.

While this is still Deadline and that comes with the territory, it might go north $50m by the nature of D&W. Oppenheimer is one of the best Nolan films and an excellent comp for D&W, but I wouldn’t be surprised if D&W behaves more like the main attraction of the weekend (aka this year’s Barbie) to IEWU’s Opp.

[baumer]

52 minutes ago, XXR & Friends said:

 

+65% Friday
+40% Saturday

-20% Sunday

Yeah anybody can throw out numbers I get that. I can throw at numbers to get it to 80 million this weekend. I'm saying what model or what film are they basing it on? Like I said I took Oppenheimer and it wasn't anywhere close to 65% increase on Friday it was more like a smidge less than 40%

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 hours ago, grey ghost said:

The budget for Borderlands is 130m.

 

There are very few video game properties that would warrant that budget imo.

 

The only ones that come to mind are Fortnite, Minecraft, and maybe Zelda.

Where are you seeing $130M? 

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

While this is still Deadline and that comes with the territory, it might go north $50m by the nature of D&W. Oppenheimer is one of the best Nolan films and an excellent comp for D&W, but I wouldn’t be surprised if D&W behaves more like the main attraction of the weekend (aka this year’s Barbie) to IEWU’s Opp.

Yeah if you use Barbies numbers for the same weekend it comes in at even less than what the Oppenheimer projection is.

[Killimano3]

35 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Without spoiling anything about either movie, both aren't good. It Ends with Us is saved by its great acting, but it mostly plays out like a generic romance drama (complete with a lot of cliches), feels much longer than it needs to be (there's no shortage of long awkward moments) and is based on source material that just isn't worth making an entire movie based off of. I've never read Colleen Hoover's novel, but if this movie is any indication, I don't see how she became a household name for romance novels when she's writing stuff that isn't doing anything new with the genre. 

 

My limited knowledge of her is that half the women on "booktok" love her and think she's the greatest author of all time and will defend anything she writes or does. The other half of women on booktok think she's possibly the worst thing to happen to literature ever and hate her. The Colleen hoover wars make Marvel vs DC look like polite debate

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

Yeah anybody can throw out numbers I get that. I can throw at numbers to get it to 80 million this weekend. I'm saying what model or what film are they basing it on? Like I said I took Oppenheimer and it wasn't anywhere close to 65% increase on Friday it was more like a smidge less than 40%

Oppenheimer was way stronger on the weekdays because key IMAXes were running our of space on weekends so people watched on weekdays instead. 

 

This movie gets stronger Fri/Sat bumps than Oppenehimer because of that.

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Oppenheimer was way stronger on the weekdays because key IMAXes were running our of space on weekends so people watched on weekdays instead. 

 

This movie gets stronger Fri/Sat bumps than Oppenehimer because of that.

 

By the way, on its second Friday, Oppenheimer only increased by 34% whereas Deadpool and Wolverine increased by 55%.

 

I don't think using Oppenheimer is the best comp for Deadpool and Wolverine's third weekend. 

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Oppenheimer was way stronger on the weekdays because key IMAXes were running our of space on weekends so people watched on weekdays instead. 

 

This movie gets stronger Fri/Sat bumps than Oppenehimer because of that.

Okay that makes total sense. I still like to know what movie they're basing it on. There has to be a specific film or films that they're using for the increases.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

By the way, on its second Friday, Oppenheimer only increased by 34% whereas Deadpool and Wolverine increased by 55%.

 

I don't think using Oppenheimer is the best comp for Deadpool and Wolverine's third weekend. 

You might be right so what are rated film in the middle of August are they basing it on LOL 

 

Don't get me wrong I would obviously love to see Deadpool and Wolverine make north of 50 million this weekend.

[grey ghost]

12 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Where are you seeing $130M? 

 

I googled it.

 

It's a Deadline estimate according to Business Insider.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

25 minutes ago, baumer said:

Yeah anybody can throw out numbers I get that. I can throw at numbers to get it to 80 million this weekend. I'm saying what model or what film are they basing it on? Like I said I took Oppenheimer and it wasn't anywhere close to 65% increase on Friday it was more like a smidge less than 40%

 

EDIT: I was rude.

Deadline is saying $15M for Friday. Yesterday was $9.1M. That's a 65% increase. The +40% Saturday and -20% Sunday are just estimates based on that increase. 

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, XXR & Friends said:

 

EDIT: I was rude.

Deadline is saying $15M for Friday. Yesterday was $9.1M. That's a 65% increase. The +40% Saturday and -20% Sunday are just estimates based on that increase. 

 

Well I might have come across as rude as well but it was lost in translation I wasn't being sarcastic with you. Your numbers made sense I was just saying I wonder what film deadline was using to get to those numbers. So if you misconstrued anything I said I apologize.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Yeah anybody can throw out numbers I get that. I can throw at numbers to get it to 80 million this weekend. I'm saying what model or what film are they basing it on? Like I said I took Oppenheimer and it wasn't anywhere close to 65% increase on Friday it was more like a smidge less than 40%

Let’s entertain Deadline’s projection for a bit:

 

Thursday was $9.1M.

 

Empire is saying Deadpool & Wolverine is going for a $15m and a battle for the weekend with It Ends With Us:

 

If D&W goes for $15m like Empire is projecting, a $5.9m jump from Thur to Fri means a 60.6% jump from Thursday to Friday, while Oppenheimer had a respectable 49.3% jump from its third weekend, from $5.6m to $8.3m. If we extrapolate using Opp’s comps, a 33.9% jump from $15m give us $20.1m and I think that’s where the comp falls apart, I think Deadline is expecting D&W to keep performing with better jumps than Opp, and that’s where the Jurassic World’s comp comes in handy:

 

Jurassic World:

 

Thur $8.9m

Fri $14.7m

Sat $22.5m

Sun $17.3m

That’s the pattern that Deadline is using, and if D&W keeps tracking close to JW (Empire’s early Friday indicates it might), that means that over $50m is achievable. JW’s third weekend is ~$54.5m, so while that’s Deadline, it isn’t a bad comp to have.

[dudalb]

I am curious about the Borderline numbers. Not a case of if they will be bad, just how bad.

[baumer]

Well I would imagine that schools going back in some states would affect the weekday numbers and account for some of the bigger than usual jumps on a friday. Like I said I would love to see it hit 53 million. That would be less than a 50% drop from last week and I would say 600 million is all but assured. I think at this point we all think it's going for $650 anyway.

[dudalb]

15 hours ago, AN9815 said:

A 52% verified audience score is insanely bad. Borderlands might be unwatchable lmao

That is pretty much what the critics are saying.

Happy about It Ends With Us, since I am happy when ever a straigh up drama does well at the box office.

Great Summer for both Mr. and Mrs. Reynolds.

Edited August 10 by dudalb

[ZattMurdock]

30 minutes ago, baumer said:

Okay that makes total sense. I still like to know what movie they're basing it on. There has to be a specific film or films that they're using for the increases.

It’s Jurassic World, mister B. The math checks out:

 

 https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2371716609/

 

And how close the numbers are, even if it June vs. August, I’d dare to say it’s the best comp we have for D&W.

[vale9001]

Deadpool first weekdays were weaker than Barbie and then the second weekend was bigger. 

 

Barbie second Friday got a 36.7% jump from the day before against Deadpool 55% jump.

 

Barbie third friday jump was 40%. So again a 50-55% jump for Deadpool seems fair since Its weekends jumps seem stronger than Barbie. 

Edited August 10 by vale9001

[Migs20242]

 

[ZattMurdock]