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JUICY WEEKEND - BJBJ releases with $111M (DHD)

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37 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Cap4 (praying)  

Thunderbolts

Superman

TFF:FS

Zootopia

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I think Thunderbolts would be lucky to open at Eternals numbers.

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Beetlejuice 2 was so infectiously fun, Burton’s best in ages. Almost feels like the first genuinely fun movie of the year, outside of maybe Challengers. Hand Theroux the Oscar. 

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Just now, YM! said:

I think Thunderbolts would be lucky to open at Eternals numbers.

I can definitely see that too, footage reception seemed positive though. If Cap and bolts are good I think 100 is pretty likely and if not… not

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1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Venom 2 was released during the pandemic. It opened higher than other pandemic movies like Black Widow/Shang-Chi/Eternals, and Venom 3 does have a hook with this symbiote invasion/final chapter stuff. 

 

Let me past this comment from Relevation:

Honestly IN, we’ve clearly seen with Dune and GxK (and to a lesser extent AQPD1) that COVID really was depressing a lot of the bigger 2021 breakouts’ OW potential as demonstrated by the massive sequel increases we’ve been seeing this year even without significant new value adds. I’m not saying Venom 3 can outright pull a Dune or GxK but even just adjusting for inflation for Let There Be Carnage, you’d get $104.5M. So if that’s what Venom can do despite being depressed by COVID, I don’t see why The Last Dance would do so much worse relative to market strength as to miss $100M. I’m saying $105M for now


 

GvK and Dune released the same day on streaming. Not the same situation as Venom. GvK was also in April of that year 

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1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I'm honestly wondering, why would they both open over twice of Marvels?

For now marvels is much more the exception than the rule so I’d say the better question is “why not”?   

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I was about to post that this has to be the greatest under index I have seen. 42m is still very impressive considering how bad this week has been. It should have a big increase tomorrow. 110m OW would be phenomenal. I did not think this would succeed until presales.  

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13 minutes ago, dallas said:

I mean, Man of Steel was a divisive film on some level and it still did over $650M+. Every Superman movie that was good has done well. Every Superman movie that was bad or mid has done poorly. I don't think it's a stretch to assume a *great* Superman film will open above $100M.


I don’t disagree, the new Superman does have very good buzz from the set photos. It just depends on how the main marketing goes and of course if the movie itself is good.

 

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My prediction is that Thunderbolts will open lower than Cap 4 but will make more overall with stronger WOM. Maybe like 60M-70M for Thunderbolts OW and something like 95-105M 4-day for Cap. 

 

3 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

For now marvels is much more the exception than the rule so I’d say the better question is “why not”?   

Yeah Agree. For now it´s one of a kind at least for the MCU. Thunderbolts I think has a bit going for it, and it has that prime MCU date that audiences have been accustomed for MCU movies. Also Florence Pugh.

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16 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

 

 

 

Oh, come on! I just get out of seeing the movie a second time and as soon as I pull up my phone, I get an update that's lower than even a few hours ago. 

 

Ok, $100M+ is still probably happening and Deadline was lowballing as I expected (they don't win unless this falls below nine digits), but still. That's not the first thing I wanna see as soon as I get out of the theater.

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1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Sam Wilson Cap and the Thunderbolts aren't popular. 

Neither were gotg in 2014, or captain America in 2011, or thor in 2011, or doctor strange in 2016, or Shang-Chi in 2021, or so on and so on. Don’t really need much pre-existing popularity to open 100M nowadays as long as you’ve got a decent movie, good marketing, and not a big build up of brand damage (the DS2-QM stretch of fiascos is a bit faded now, as well as some D+ stinkers, and DPW has hopefully helped some). We’ll see in time whether they can deliver on the first two 

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Beetlejuice seems to be the rare case where a development hell movie that got out actually did well critically and financially. How about that.

 

of course, one must always wonder how things would have went if Beetlejuice went Hawaiian like originally planned….

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2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Sam Wilson Cap and the Thunderbolts aren't popular. 

Sam is more popular than people here act (not that big but people act like he´s nobody) and Thunderbolts have Pugh and Stan to give some interest for the fanbase at least. The Marvels pretty much ended up with every ingredient for failure in the end. Cap 4 trailer got a good response, the Red Hulk stuff have garnered interest, also opening over a holiday weekend and being the first big movie of 2025 and since Christmas will help it. At least OW. Don´t know how much that will be in the end, but Marvels levels seems doubtful. 

 

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