AniNate Posted Friday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:18 PM (edited) The flip side of that is all it takes is one movie to really break out to offset that. Moana 2 certainly has that potential based on the streaming data and Quorum awareness. Edited Friday at 05:21 PM by AniNate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:26 PM 1 minute ago, AniNate said: The flip side of that is all it takes is one movie to really break out to offset that. Moana 2 certainly has that potential based on the streaming data. I agree and a $600M+ domestic run for Moana 2 would definitely help offset any losses. Still, before this week, Joker 2 was expected to do at least $250M-$300M domestically. Now we're at a point where it could barely top out at $100M. For what was expected to be one of the Fall's biggest grossers, that's a massive downgrade and much like when The Fall Guy and Furiosa both bombed, it puts a lot more pressure on the rest of the movies coming out afterwards to exceed expectations if you wanna catch up with the pace of last year's box office. I don't want to start any kind of doom and goom stuff or whatever, but I'm just worried that even if the rest of the movies do well from now to December, it won't be enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickiland16 Posted Friday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:53 PM 26 minutes ago, Ryan C said: It's honestly gonna be upsetting if everything this Fall (Transformers One, Smile 2, Venom: The Last Dance, The Wild Robot, etc.) all perform well or exceed expectations, but the one movie that we all expected to be the biggest one of at least September and October misses expectations by over half. Though the Fall slate is much better than last year's, that is gonna hurt the box office no doubt. I already wasn't overly confident about this last week, but Joker 2 could be the movie that stops 2024 from getting real close to 2023's $9B total. Yeah the last months of the year would need other surprise/big breakouts for it to happen. Maybe The Wild Robot and/or Transformers One going over $200M because of good WOM or Gladiador 2 being another Beetlejuice 2/Twisters could help. Also Moana 2 pulling an Inside Out or Wicked going over $300M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:57 PM (edited) It's been awhile since we've had a real big disappointment, we were bound for one at some point. But I still don't think it necessarily precludes something else rising up to take its place, and tbh I'd personally prefer a timeline where that happens. Edited Friday at 06:05 PM by AniNate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted Friday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:01 PM I'm someone who created a box office club thread on 2024 catching 2023, and I'm also someone pessimistic on Joker in my tracking. I still feel it's possible. And it doesn't have to all hang on Moana. The calendar is actually legitimately full between now and the end of the year. It looks pretty close to prepandemic times. It might be a few different films all doing a bit better than top end expectations. Maybe Smile 2 sees growth from the first. Maybe Saturday Night grabs a bigger audience. Perhaps Wicked becomes a phenomenon. There's lots of scenarios to make up ground. It won't be easy. And not guaranteed at all. But there's options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted Friday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:22 PM 1 hour ago, vafrow said: I'm someone who created a box office club thread on 2024 catching 2023, and I'm also someone pessimistic on Joker in my tracking. I still feel it's possible. And it doesn't have to all hang on Moana. The calendar is actually legitimately full between now and the end of the year. It looks pretty close to prepandemic times. It might be a few different films all doing a bit better than top end expectations. Maybe Smile 2 sees growth from the first. Maybe Saturday Night grabs a bigger audience. Perhaps Wicked becomes a phenomenon. There's lots of scenarios to make up ground. It won't be easy. And not guaranteed at all. But there's options. I don't deny that the calendar is pretty full between now and the end of December, but also remember that there's practically nothing noteworthy releasing either on November 1 or November 8. As much as we all know why that is, I feel like if there was a major wide release (maybe a franchise sequel or something) on either of those two weekends, I would feel less worried about Joker 2 underperforming. Since there isn't though, it does put a lot more pressure on both Wicked and Gladiator II to overperform after a couple of stale weeks. Again, I don't want to inspire any doom and gloom and I know this Fall will be much stronger compared to last year's, but we would have to get really lucky in order for 2024 to catch up to 2023's pace. Not impossible, but we're gonna need as many big overperformers if not more than this summer had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:31 PM (edited) If it doesn't end up catching up, so be it. It's still probably gonna end on a strong enough note that the industry is optimistic heading into 2025 (ideally boosted by an... agreeable outcome to that reason that is keeping early November empty). Catching up to last year would mainly just be a nice media narrative for a few days. It's frankly a small miracle it's even being considered a realistic scenario at this point. There were still people insisting it was impossible as recently as July. Edited Friday at 07:47 PM by AniNate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted Friday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:54 PM 21 minutes ago, Ryan C said: I don't deny that the calendar is pretty full between now and the end of December, but also remember that there's practically nothing noteworthy releasing either on November 1 or November 8. As much as we all know why that is, I feel like if there was a major wide release (maybe a franchise sequel or something) on either of those two weekends, I would feel less worried about Joker 2 underperforming. Since there isn't though, it does put a lot more pressure on both Wicked and Gladiator II to overperform after a couple of stale weeks. Again, I don't want to inspire any doom and gloom and I know this Fall will be much stronger compared to last year's, but we would have to get really lucky in order for 2024 to catch up to 2023's pace. Not impossible, but we're gonna need as many big overperformers if not more than this summer had. Those two empty weekends aren't ideal, but, I also don't know how things will play out around that time. I'm not convinced that slot will stay as empty as it looks. I know the challenges of getting in the necessary advertising, but I think something can squeeze in there at the mid size level. I feel like The Red One would be ideal to move up. The Rock is someone who can overcome a crowded media space. And Amazon getting that in theatres at the begging of November means they can probably get away with dropping it on Prime a week before before Christmas while giving it enough time. It also feels like the type of movie people would want to watch when they want to escape the election cycle. There's going to be zero messaging in that movie. But even if 2024 doesn't catch 2023, on a weekend by weekend basis, we're pretty much going to be doing better than last year for almost every part of the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:00 PM (edited) I do think HERE is aiming to be something of a tension release option that attracts audiences across the aisle. Life affirming feel goodbadgood Zemeckis melodrama with the Forrest Gump crew. AFI premiere too so he may very well be on his game. Edited Friday at 08:03 PM by AniNate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted Friday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:21 PM 1 hour ago, vafrow said: Those two empty weekends aren't ideal, but, I also don't know how things will play out around that time. I'm not convinced that slot will stay as empty as it looks. I know the challenges of getting in the necessary advertising, but I think something can squeeze in there at the mid size level. I feel like The Red One would be ideal to move up. The Rock is someone who can overcome a crowded media space. And Amazon getting that in theatres at the begging of November means they can probably get away with dropping it on Prime a week before before Christmas while giving it enough time. It also feels like the type of movie people would want to watch when they want to escape the election cycle. There's going to be zero messaging in that movie. But even if 2024 doesn't catch 2023, on a weekend by weekend basis, we're pretty much going to be doing better than last year for almost every part of the calendar. Everyone is avoiding early November because of the anxiety surrounding this election (and of course, concerns about how one particular candidate's fan base will respond to another potential loss, having previously taken things to a violent level in January '21), and the marketing campaigns run the risk of getting drowned out in all the noise. Industry insiders have said so themselves. The schedule as it appears now is going to stay as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:41 PM (edited) Realistically it probably won't be what everyone fears, but that's the reality at the moment that there's a lot of anxiety. Studios think a lesser chance of that year end comeback narrative panning out is worth the bet hedging Will say the right outcome will sure give a big festive vibe to that Thanksgiving tentpole slate Edited Friday at 09:44 PM by AniNate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted Friday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:54 PM https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-speak-no-evil-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-dave-bautista-1236087187/ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: $50M Speak No Evil: $12.5M Deadpool and Wolverine: $5M Am I Racist?: $4M The Killer's Game: $2.5M-$4M Good for Beetlejuice (hope a great Saturday boosts that weekend estimate number), a solid opening for Speak No Evil (I called it yesterday), and it's insane that Deadpool and Wolverine is still in the top 5. If it can keep up these strong holds for the next two weeks, taking down Barbie domestically can be possible. On the other hand, it sucks Am I Racist? is in the top five, but thank God it's doing much less than I originally thought it would. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:02 PM Honestly the only place that has made me aware of am I racist is this forum. Sucks as it may to be reminded that there are idiots in the country, at least the mainstream largely refuses to give them a platform. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:43 PM @Sophie to answer your question which could've been asked in this thread, the pm deadline updates aren't consistent. Could be anywhere from early in the afternoon to late at night depending on how buzzy the new releases are and how many clicks they aim to get. Saturday AM update though typically comes around 11AM eastern, and Sunday weekend estimates around the same time. There are other people such as @charlie Jatinder who do independent estimates and we sometimes get updates from him earlier, but again he's just one person and it's basically up to him when we get estimates and whether he even feels like giving them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertman2 Posted Saturday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:06 AM 6 hours ago, Ryan C said: https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-speak-no-evil-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-dave-bautista-1236087187/ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: $50M Speak No Evil: $12.5M Deadpool and Wolverine: $5M Am I Racist?: $4M The Killer's Game: $2.5M-$4M Good for Beetlejuice (hope a great Saturday boosts that weekend estimate number), a solid opening for Speak No Evil (I called it yesterday), and it's insane that Deadpool and Wolverine is still in the top 5. If it can keep up these strong holds for the next two weeks, taking down Barbie domestically can be possible. On the other hand, it sucks Am I Racist? is in the top five, but thank God it's doing much less than I originally thought it would. hope Am I Racist goes lower! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted Saturday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:10 AM 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Saturday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:13 AM Least it's not an A+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted Saturday at 04:19 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:19 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Saturday at 04:29 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:29 AM Pretty much matching IT 1's true Friday drop. Not terrible but given it already lost more ground with the weekdays it's gonna need some real good Halloween spirit late in its run to get to $300mil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted Saturday at 04:36 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:36 AM 75M week and 40% drops would be ~299M finish. Just outside of DOM top 100, could make it in with good 3rd weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
