JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Natsu Lian]

Maleficent will have much more sunday. It already had 35 million thursday.I think it'll do 3.5 - 4 million friday- sunday.Then 38.5-39 million sunday.

How much do you think Marnie and Pokemon will make by Sunday? 

[#ED]

I agree PokeHex...Check out my thread?

[Corpse]

Your projections are really... wide, PokeHex.

 

Marnie will likely finish around 4 billion ($40 million).  3.5-4.5 billion is its total range.  Low-end if it behaves more like Princess Kaguya or Tales from Earthsea, high-end if it achieves the normal 10-12 multiplier.

Pokemon will likely finish around 2.75 billion ($27 million).  2.5-3.0 billion would be its total range.  Pokemon is pretty consistent, so it's easy to predict.  

[Natsu Lian]

Your projections are really... wide, PokeHex.

 

Marnie will likely finish around 4 billion ($40 million).  3.5-4.5 billion is its total range.  Low-end if it behaves more like Princess Kaguya or Tales from Earthsea, high-end if it achieves the normal 10-12 multiplier.

Pokemon will likely finish around 2.75 billion ($27 million).  2.5-3.0 billion would be its total range.  Pokemon is pretty consistent, so it's easy to predict.  

Lol.  I tend to have quite the immense projection due to the fluctuation between each film.  Pokemon has been consistent within the $20 - 40 million marks so a $27 million grossing is pretty likely.  As for Marnie, I do believe the grossing prediction comes from my own biased feelings, lol.  

[Ajbg]

Your projections are really... wide, PokeHex.  Marnie will likely finish around 4 billion ($40 million).  3.5-4.5 billion is its total range.  Low-end if it behaves more like Princess Kaguya or Tales from Earthsea, high-end if it achieves the normal 10-12 multiplier.Pokemon will likely finish around 2.75 billion ($27 million).  2.5-3.0 billion would be its total range.  Pokemon is pretty consistent, so it's easy to predict.

Corpse, do You already know how Maleficent is doing against Godzilla?How much % it will fall?Thank You in advance.

[Corpse]

Weekend Forecast (07/26-27)

 

 

01 (--) ¥520 million ($5.1 million), 0, ¥690 million ($6.8 million), Godzilla (Toho) NEW

02 (01) ¥387 million ($3.8 million), -19%, ¥4.05 billion ($39.8 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 4

03 (03) ¥254 million ($2.5 million), -33%, ¥1.10 billion ($10.8 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) Week 2

04 (02) ¥216 million ($2.1 million), -45%, ¥880 million ($8.7 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) Week 2 

05 (--) ¥190 million ($1.8 million), 0, ¥190 million ($1.8 million), Eight Ranger 2 (Toho) NEW

06 (05) ¥94 million ($0.92 million), -31%, ¥1.40 billion ($13.7 million), Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros.) Week 4

07 (04) ¥90 million ($0.88 million), -47%, ¥375 million ($3.7 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Toei) Week 2

08 (--) ¥70 million ($0.69 million), 0, ¥70 million ($0.69 million), Time Trip App (Toei) NEW

09 (06) ¥61 million ($0.60 million), -24%, ¥600 million ($5.9 million), Say, "I Love You" (Shochiku) Week 3

10 (07) ¥47 million ($0.46 million), -39%, ¥25.25 billion ($248.2 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 20

 

>Godzilla performed well yesterday, and ticket sales so far this morning look pretty good, too. I wouldn't say it's guaranteed to open above ¥500 million ($5 million), but it appears strong enough right now to do so.  Godzilla should also break Disney's 19-consecutive week hold atop the box-office, too.  

 

>Eight Ranger 2 should open a little more than the previous film.

 

>Memories of Marnie and Pokemon XY are likely to switch places in their second weekends.  As long as Marnie is above ¥1 billion ($10 million) after Sunday, it should be able to reach ¥4 billion ($40 million).  That's certainly less than Studio Ghibli was hoping for, but it would be a respectable finish.  

 

>And you know.. Frozen may leave the Top 10 this weekend.  I forgot Time Trip App was opening, and while it won't do much, it'll place in the Top 10 for sure.  Planes 2 and Mission Impossible: Samurai! are probably going to have a better weekend holds, too.  I'll leave Frozen in 10th for now, but I don't think it's going to make it.

[paul75]

So Maleficent final numbers shoud be + 60m USD?

[Corpse]

Yeah, may push for $70 million.  

[alee7915]

Corpse, what's your estimation for Godzilla's total gross in Japan?

[Corpse]

Corpse, what's your estimation for Godzilla's total gross in Japan?

If it opens around $5 million, then $30-40 million.  

[Tau Ceti]

Corpse, do you already know who's going to win Japan's Championship Series in baseball? I'd like to place my bets in advance. I promise to split the winnings.

[Godzilla]

Yay glad to see Godzilla locked to reach $500M WW and $300M OS. Plus $200M DOM is definitely happening. Should finish around $520M WW. Thank you Japan.

[Annayya]

Yay glad to see Godzilla locked to reach $500M WW and $300M OS. Plus $200M DOM is definitely happening. Should finish around $520M WW. Thank you Japan.

 

If a movie makes half billion we will get a sequel.

Can't wait for the next Godzilla sequel

Edited July 26, 2014 by Annayya

[Annayya]

>And you know.. Frozen may leave the Top 10 this weekend.  I forgot Time Trip App was opening, and while it won't do much, it'll place in the Top 10 for sure.  Planes 2 and Mission Impossible: Samurai! are probably going to have a better weekend holds, too.  I'll leave Frozen in 10th for now, but I don't think it's going to make it.

 

 

We will see ... Frozen has the habit to surprise everyone all the time with everything (box office, merchanidise, album sales, DVD/Blu-ray ... and future theme park attractions). Frozen is a money making machine. Disney will definitley push for a sequel within the next 5 years.

 

When I first saw the teaser for Frozen with Olaf and the Reindeer I was like "what the heck is this" and look at where it is now.

Ofcourse I said the same thing when Disney dediced to have Cinderella's shoe as the teaser for their next big movie.

Edited July 26, 2014 by Annayya

[Natsu Lian]

Rough Estimates:

 

Godzilla - $30-40 million

Maleficent - $60 million (Possibly $70 million)

Marnie - $40 million

Pokemon - $27 million (Possibly $30 million)

Edited July 26, 2014 by PokeHex

[Corpse]

Toho, Movix, 109, Kinezo Cinema Chains Saturday Admissions (As of 02:30PM)

01. 31,352 - Godzilla (NEW)

02. 18,763 (-61%) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Week 2)

03. 18,741 - Eight Ranger 2 (NEW)

04. 17,081 (-29%) - Maleficent (Week 4)

05. 13,426 (-46%) - Memories of Marnie (Week 2)

06. 7,136 (-60%) - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Week 2)

07. 5,064 (-34%) - Say, "I Love You" (Week 3)

08. 4,301 (-46%) - Planes: Fire & Rescue (Week 2)

09. 3,205 - Time Trip App (NEW)

10. 2,108 (-52%) - Frozen (Week 20)

 

 

Only Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions (As of 02:30PM)

17,206 - Godzilla (NEW)

12,741 - Eight Ranger 2 (NEW)

10,371 (-63%) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Week 2)

9,248 (-25%) - Maleficent (Week 4)

7,460 (-42%) - Memories of Marnie (Week 2)

3,719 (-56%) - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Week 2)

2,241 (-52%) - Planes: Fire & Rescue (Week 2)

2,120 (-34%) - Say, "I Love You" (Week 3)

1,843 - Time Trip App (NEW)

1,142 (-53%) - Frozen (Week 20)

 

Godzilla is looking strong at the mid-day point and should break 35,000 at Toho Cinemas for the day, and 60,000 at the other cinemas when combined.  It looks on track for 350-400,000 admissions and ¥500-550 million ($5-5.5 million).

 

And Eight Ranger 2 is showing some very solid strength.  It might be able to break into the Top 5 rather than settle for 5th over the weekend.  

Edited July 26, 2014 by Corpse

[Corpse]

Godzilla might actually do 40,000 (Toho)/70,000 (others) for the day.  It really should play stronger into the evening instead of just matching the morning/afternoon business.  If it does 40,000/70,000 for Saturday, it could do over 400,000 admissions and 600 million ($6 million) over the weekend.  

[Ajbg]

Toho, Movix, 109, Kinezo Cinema Chains Saturday Admissions (As of 02:30PM)

01. 31,352 - Godzilla (NEW)

02. 18,763 (-61%) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Week 2)

03. 18,741 - Eight Ranger 2 (NEW)

04. 17,081 (-29%) - Maleficent (Week 4)

05. 13,426 (-46%) - Memories of Marnie (Week 2)

06. 7,136 (-60%) - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Week 2)

07. 5,064 (-34%) - Say, "I Love You" (Week 3)

08. 4,301 (-46%) - Planes: Fire & Rescue (Week 2)

09. 3,205 - Time Trip App (NEW)

10. 2,108 (-52%) - Frozen (Week 20)

Only Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions (As of 02:30PM)

17,206 - Godzilla (NEW)

12,741 - Eight Ranger 2 (NEW)

10,371 (-63%) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Week 2)

9,248 (-25%) - Maleficent (Week 4)

7,460 (-42%) - Memories of Marnie (Week 2)

3,719 (-56%) - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Week 2)

2,241 (-52%) - Planes: Fire & Rescue (Week 2)

2,120 (-34%) - Say, "I Love You" (Week 3)

1,843 - Time Trip App (NEW)

1,142 (-53%) - Frozen (Week 20)

Godzilla is looking strong at the mid-day point and should break 35,000 at Toho Cinemas for the day, and 60,000 at the other cinemas when combined. It looks on track for 350-400,000 admissions and ¥500-550 million ($5-5.5 million).

And Eight Ranger 2 is showing some very solid strength. It might be able to break into the Top 5 rather than settle for 5th over the weekend.

Probably bigger drop for Maleficent than in your first forecast. Edited July 26, 2014 by Ajbg

[edroger3]

Saturday (vs last sat)

 

  *1　*70683　Godzilla
　*2　*35414　Maleficent -38%
　*3　*28655　Eight Ranger 2
　*4　*25494　Marnie -50%
　*5　*22904　Pokemon -61%
　*6　**8192　劇場版仮面ライダー鎧武 烈車…
　*7　**7548　好きっていいなよ。
　*8　**6422　EoT -68%
　*9　**5437　幕末高校生
　10　**4968　Planes 2 -50%

 

Big drop for all and Frozen out of top 10

[Bishop54]

So Godzilla did better than expected for Saturday? Are we headed for a $6M weekend?