Monday est Box Office: Snow White 5.4, MIB3 2.7, Avengers 2

[kesleyk]

its not going to drop on tuesday

Why not? This will be the 5th domestic tuesday. Three of the previous four dropped from the preceding monday. two of three if you don't count memorial monday.

[druv10]

Why not? This will be the 5th domestic tuesday. Three of the previous four dropped from the preceding monday. two of three if you don't count memorial monday.

We are in the summer plus discount Tuesday will give it a 10% bump.

[kesleyk]

Why would it drop on Tuesday?

I obviously have no great insight, but why wouldn't it?

[doublejack]

I obviously have no great insight, but why wouldn't it?

Discount Tuesdays. I'm going to see Chernobyl Diaries tonight, simply because it's cheap and I needed a diversion this evening.

[baumer]

Why not? This will be the 5th domestic tuesday. Three of the previous four dropped from the preceding monday. two of three if you don't count memorial monday.

The first Tuesday is always, or usually a drop. The second Tuesday it went up. Third Tues it was coming off a Canadian holiday Monday and of course the last Tuesday was the American holiday. Today it should go up 15-20%.

[kesleyk]

We are in the summer plus discount Tuesday will give it a 10% bump.

Perhaps. Outside shot of 2.2, but I'll sick with my ridiculous guess for now.

[baumer]

Perhaps. Outside shot of 2.2, but I'll sick with my ridiculous guess for now.

But at this point, it's a mathematical certainty that it will go up. It's not a guess. There's historical data to support it.

[kesleyk]

The first Tuesday is always, or usually a drop. The second Tuesday it went up. Third Tues it was coming off a Canadian holiday Monday and of course the last Tuesday was the American holiday. Today it should go up 15-20%.

You put it at 2.4-2.3 then? As a novice that seems too high but that may be why you have the big-boy title.

[baumer]

You put it at 2.4-2.3 then? As a novice that seems too high but that may be why you have the big-boy title.

I'm not a big boy. I just look through Tuesdays in previous years. I think it will go up by 12-15%.Take a look at last year on the same Tuesday, Thor went up 10%. But I think TA is better received than Thor and it has more family appeal to it, so Tuesday will be more like OST and KFP2:http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-06-07&track=thor.htm

[druv10]

You put it at 2.4-2.3 then? As a novice that seems too high but that may be why you have the big-boy title.

I have it around 2.2-2.3M.

[kesleyk]

But at this point, it's a mathematical certainty that it will go up. It's not a guess. There's historical data to support it.

Mathematical certainty? Not. I don't put much stock in how predecessors tracked, but even looking at IM shows that every tuesday dropped from monday between opening w/e and july 15th except 6/3 (+8.6) and 7/8 (+0.6). 9 of 11 were drops, including 5 of 7 in june and july. You may be right, and it may be more likely, but this is not a mathematically provable concept.

[baumer]

Mathematical certainty? Not. I don't put much stock in how predecessors tracked, but even looking at IM shows that every tuesday dropped from monday between opening w/e and july 15th except 6/3 (+8.6) and 7/8 (+0.6). 9 of 11 were drops, including 5 of 7 in june and july. You may be right, and it may be more likely, but this is not a mathematically provable concept.

It's 100% guaranteed to increase today. I'd bet my life savings, my house,my stock options at work and my RRSP's. IM came out 4 years ago before discount Tuesdays took off.

[druv10]

TA

$2,042,375 (-65%)

Edited June 5, 2012 by druv10

[kesleyk]

I'm not a big boy.

Hehe. Was just making fun of the fact that I'm "straight-to-dvd".

[baumer]

I'm just saying kesleyk, that you don't have to be a "seasoned" box office follower to know that a film will increase tomorrow. Everything should increase tomorrow with the possible exception of SW, because it is its first Tuesday.

[redfirebird2008]

I'm just saying kesleyk, that you don't have to be a "seasoned" box office follower to know that a film will increase tomorrow. Everything should increase tomorrow with the possible exception of SW, because it is its first Tuesday.

You mean increase today.

[druv10]

I'm just saying kesleyk, that you don't have to be a "seasoned" box office follower to know that a film will increase tomorrow. Everything should increase tomorrow with the possible exception of SW, because it is its first Tuesday.

I even expect SW to increase.

[baumer]

You mean increase today.

Yes, you know what I mean.

[baumer]

I even expect SW to increase.

So do I.

[kesleyk]

It's 100% guaranteed to increase today. I'd bet my life savings, my house,my stock options at work and my RRSP's. IM came out 4 years ago before discount Tuesdays took off.

you haven't a background in mathematics/statistics I take it. If the odds are in fact 100% then to have a proper betting line would mean you would be risking all you put up for 0 additional in winnings. As well, that would mean the individual(s) betting against you would have to put up nothing to win everything put up by you since their betting line would be 0%. I would rather risk nothing in this scenario since the REAL odds are better than the offered odds.