The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

No way it makes less than 50M here.

[Elessar]

This has been posted in China forum by firedeep, who knows very well Chinese market:

This seems to be a recent development. Have they figured out Hollywood movies make too much money?

[The Toymaker]

I'm just saying what I see, guys. I'm not like Heretic and a lot of others, they just follow what everyone else says. I'm not afraid to get it wrong.

Edited October 15, 2012 by Barney Ross

[Fake]

Even though I don't agree with Algren's numbers I understand where he is coming from. Most people have just ASSUMED that this will be performing like LOTR. Truth is, we have to wait and see.Also, China is a pretty unpredictable market. Spiderman which broke the OW back in 2007 came so close to be outgrossed by Battleshit. So big performance in the past doesn't necessarily guarantee big performance in the future.

[The Toymaker]

Fake, what a very mature post. You're leaving the possibility open that The Hobbit doesn't perform like ROTK. Very good.

[Heretic]

I'm just saying what I see, guys. I'm not like Heretic and a lot of others, they just follow what everyone else says. I'm not afraid to get it wrong.

Because if I have a genuine opinion that others agree with, I'm a sheep. Haha good one.

[Heretic]

Fake, what a very mature post. You're leaving the possibility open that The Hobbit doesn't perform like ROTK. Very good.

Which is why its a fucking prediction. There's always the possibility someones prediction is not met, but I'm not gonna say 'I think the hobbit will make 900m, but it could also make 600m'. What's the point?

Do you think by being a minority, it makes you seem more clever or something?

[The Toymaker]

Because if I have a genuine opinion that others agree with, I'm a sheep. Haha good one.

No, no you don't. You are just like many here. You wait for the first prediction, then you go +/- 10%. That's the definition of a sheep trying to appear knowledgeable.

[The Toymaker]

Which is why its a fucking prediction. There's always the possibility someones prediction is not met, but I'm not gonna say 'I think the hobbit will make 900m, but it could also make 600m'. What's the point?Do you think by being a minority, it makes you seem more clever or something?

Or something. Being able to think for myself is refreshing. Try it sometime.It's funny that 100% of your comments follow the general consensus of this forum.

[Heretic]

Because the general concensus is infant that you are prick that knows almost nothing about the BO and you think you're intelligent for predicting numbers that are out of the ordinary. And no, I'm not a sheep because my prediction is similar to others due to the fact I can actually back up my predictions with an explanation, unlike you.

[peludo]

Even though I don't agree with Algren's numbers I understand where he is coming from. Most people have just ASSUMED that this will be performing like LOTR. Truth is, we have to wait and see.Also, China is a pretty unpredictable market. Spiderman which broke the OW back in 2007 came so close to be outgrossed by Battleshit. So big performance in the past doesn't necessarily guarantee big performance in the future.

That is a very respectable point and maybe you are right (we will know it in January), but the Spiderman case is not exactly the same given TASM is a reboot with different director, actors and a different style from Raimi trilogy. In Hobbit case we have the same cast and director. We will have to see the style but for the moment I see the same one.And given you talk about Spiderman I will give some data: TASM has dropped (in some cases, a lot) in most developed markets, and has grown in expanding markets. China's case is specially striking: Spiderman 1 grossed 5 million in 2002. And Spiderman 3 grossed 20 million even after breaking OW, as you have said. TASM has grossed 50 million with the competition of TDKR, Prometheus and The Expendables. That is 10 and 2.5 times higher, respectively, even with disadvantages. I do not think it is a bad performance.

[The Toymaker]

Yes, an explanation with points that everyone else has already mentioned. You're the definition of a sheep.Ooh, Heretic's hitting me where it hurts....I know nothing about BO. Please don't hurt my feelings. :rolleyes:Yeah, and you're not exactly making a fucking career out of it, Heretic, so I don't see why you're snobbish about knowing about box office, especially since we've already proven that you're a sheep.

[Heretic]

O

Yes, an explanation with points that everyone else has already mentioned. You're the definition of a sheep.Ooh, Heretic's hitting me where it hurts....I know nothing about BO. Please don't hurt my feelings. :rolleyes:Yeah, and you're not exactly making a fucking career out of it, Heretic, so I don't see why you're snobbish about knowing about box office, especially since we've already proven that you're a sheep.

So basically, if you are in favour of a majority point of view, you are a sheep. You're so ignorant its unbelievableI never said my prediction would be right either, but that is my prediction simply because I believe in it.

[The Toymaker]

No, not at all.

If people are in favour of the majority view 100% of the time, then you are a sheep. That describes you, by the way.

[Heretic]

Hahahahaha does it really? Prove it.

[The Toymaker]

I've not got the time to waste on you.You know you are a sheep now. My work here is done.Shall we get back on topic?

[Heretic]

Because you can't.

[peludo]

No, not at all.

If people are in favour of the majority view 100% of the time, then you are a sheep. That describes you, by the way.

The fact is we are giving you objective data about the evolution of franchises along the last 10 years in China. Every franchise have multiplied their grosses, with no exceptions and independently of actors, directors or style. I do not care if we talk about Transformers, Harry Potter, Shrek or Pirates of the Caribbean. You are giving us a 30-40 million prediction, but we still do not know which criteria you have used to get that number.

[The Toymaker]

Because you can't.

I'm not trawling through 4,000 posts to prove you wrong, It's what I've seen in your posts since being here that has given me the opinion that you are a sheep. I don't care to prove it.

[The Toymaker]

The fact is we are giving you objective data about the evolution of franchises along the last 10 years in China. Every franchise have multiplied their grosses, with no exceptions and independently of actors, directors or style. I do not care if we talk about Transformers, Harry Potter, Shrek or Pirates of the Caribbean. You are giving us a 30-40 million prediction, but we still do not know which criteria you have used to get that number.

Based on TDKR and TASM and the levels of hype and buzz for those films and what I don't see for The Hobbit.