The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[peludo]

Okay. But what I am saying is, how many films are making 40m in Spain nowadays?

I'm conscious that box office in Spain is collapsing. That's absolutely true. But considering a 40%-45% drop in admissions since LOTR, what I think is quite reasonable, it would sell 3.5-4 million admissions (FOTR sold 7 million admissions, TTT sold 6.4 million and ROTK, 6.8 million) that would give a 35-40 million $. Movies VAT is increasing September 1st from 8% to 21%. TA average ticket price is 7€ (8.75$), so the VAT increase will rise ticket price for a movie like The Hobbit to nearly 8€ (~10$). In fact, I expect a higher 3D ratio for The Hobbit than TA have had.Spain loves LOTR movies and The Hobbit is the most expected movie of the year by far. And I already know you don't like LOTR comparisons, but ROTK ranks 3rd, FOTR ranks 4th and TTT 5th in all time grossers ranking. In fact, the 3 movies are in top ten in all time adjusted ranking. That's a fact that must be seriously considered. If there is a movie that can reach 40 million $ or even more here (beyond Avatar) is this. It's not necessary any movie since Avatar had done 40 million. This have the potential to do it.

[peludo]

I'm pissed about the exchange rates. Hobbit will lose like $100m in Europe.

Euro is the same than in 2003 (we will see what happens in December. I hope it can at least keep 1.2 barrier). Only British pund has dropped (15%). On the other hand, Australian dollar and Japanese yen have both increased a 35% since 2003 (Australian dollar has doubled since 2001 ). It's obvious Euro has dropped a lot since 2009 (a 20%), but not since 2003, ROTK release year. Its average value in December 2003 was 1.22 and in January 2004 was 1.26 (http://www.gocurrency.com/v2/historic-exchange-rates.php?ccode2=EUR&ccode=USD&frMonth=6&frDay=30&frYear=2004), very similar to today value (1.2266).If Hobbit loses Europe gross won't be because of this, unless it collapses. Of course, If it collapses, I will reduce my prediction.

[Elessar]

Euro is the same than in 2003

I know, i meant compared to two years ago. I want Hobbit to crush stupid DH2!

[peludo]

I know, i meant compared to two years ago. I want Hobbit to crush stupid DH2!

it will

[Elessar]

Eh, could be close.

[peludo]

Eh, could be close.

Looking the foreign grosses DH2 did, the only big markets I see DH2 can beat TH are France, Japan (both barely) and Asian southeast countries like Hong Kong, Malaysia or Singapore. Sincerely, the other grosses are beatable

[JCS]

Looking the foreign grosses DH2 did, the only big markets I see DH2 can beat TH are France, Japan (both barely) and Asian southeast countries like Hong Kong, Malaysia or Singapore. Sincerely, the other grosses are beatable

DH2 will be tough to beat in the UK. Would be great to see The Hobbit top it.

[IndustriousAngel]

As mentioned in another thread, repeat business is the key here. There are only so many fantasy and Tolkien fans; to reach the billion those must be seduced to watch it twice and more often. The LotR-films did create such business (we watched RotK 7x in its theatrical run) and still struggled to reach 1 billion WW; so it's possible with a good film and 3D and expanding markets, but by no means easy. I think it will top the billion but not by much.

[peludo]

DH2 will be tough to beat in the UK. Would be great to see The Hobbit top it.

I asume it will be hard, but I think it's possible. What are you expecting in UK for TH1? I was thinking in 115-125. I'm seeing Pound has dropped a 3-4% since July 2011 (DH2 release), and about a 12% since ROTK release. ROTK grossed 106 million. With the new exchange it would have been about 93 million. Then we should add inflation (15%? 20%?) and 3D (again, 15%? 20%?), and substract a logical drop in attendance from what LOTR did. I think it's reachable.

[JCS]

I asume it will be hard, but I think it's possible. What are you expecting in UK for TH1? I was thinking in 115-125. I'm seeing Pound has dropped a 3-4% since July 2011 (DH2 release), and about a 12% since ROTK release. ROTK grossed 106 million. With the new exchange it would have been about 93 million. Then we should add inflation (15%? 20%?) and 3D (again, 15%? 20%?), and substract a logical drop in attendance from what LOTR did. I think it's reachable.

I was thinking more conservative, around $100M gross in the UK as it is the first film and not like ROTK which was the epic finale to a loved trilogy.It will be clearer closer to release, seems so far off now.

[peludo]

I was thinking more conservative, around $100M gross in the UK as it is the first film and not like ROTK which was the epic finale to a loved trilogy.It will be clearer closer to release, seems so far off now.

If we take the first film, the number would be better . FOTR, the less epic, is the highest grosser of the trilogy, with 62.7 million Pounds, while ROTK did 60.8 (TTT did 57.6 million)

[JCS]

If we take the first film, the number would be better . FOTR, the less epic, is the highest grosser of the trilogy, with 62.7 million Pounds, while ROTK did 60.8 (TTT did 57.6 million)

Yes in £ it is but was thinking in $. The exchange rate really changes the grosses for the LOTR trilogy in the UK.It should do at least £60M then especially with 3D.

[peludo]

Yes in £ it is but was thinking in $. The exchange rate really changes the grosses for the LOTR trilogy in the UK.It should do at least £60M then especially with 3D.

What I meant is FOTR had more admissions in UK than ROTK. It's not necessary a wide epic movie to get incredible grosses. I don't know what has been the inflation in the last 10 years, but asuming a 20% (2% per year), the 3 LOTR movies would adjust to about 70-75 million pounds (without 3D). With 3D (adding another 15%) it would be around 80 million pounds each. I know it's difficult TH can reach that (different times with a logical drop in attendance), but the potential is enormous. Edited July 31, 2012 by peludo

[JCS]

What I meant is FOTR had more admissions in UK than ROTK. It's not necessary a wide epic movie to get incredible grosses. I don't know what has been the inflation in the last 10 years, but asuming a 20% (2% per year), the 3 LOTR movies would adjust to about 70-75 million pounds (without 3D). With 3D (adding another 15%) it would be around 80 million pounds each. I know it's difficult TH can reach that (different times with a logical drop in attendance), but the potential is enormous.

Yes indeed. I said it should do at LEAST £60M with 3D and coming off the epic LOTR trilogy. And it could go higher to £70M/£80M depending on WOM.

[peludo]

Yes indeed. I said it should do at LEAST £60M with 3D and coming off the epic LOTR trilogy. And it could go higher to £70M/£80M depending on WOM.

I know you wanted to say that. I only wanted to point as you well said, exchange rates did an enormous damage to movie grosses during 2001 (I'm thinking in HP1 and FOTR. Both should have been 1.1-1.2 billion grossers in 2001)

[JCS]

I know you wanted to say that. I only wanted to point as you well said, exchange rates did an enormous damage to movie grosses during 2001 (I'm thinking in HP1 and FOTR. Both should have been 1.1-1.2 billion grossers in 2001)

Yep, we both agree that the exchange rate and especially the £-$ one can radically change grosses. :)Still sticking with $100M UK gross prediction for now.

[peludo]

Yep, we both agree that the exchange rate and especially the £-$ one can radically change grosses. :)Still sticking with $100M UK gross prediction for now.

quite reasonable

[keysersoze123]

I think there is almost 5 months to go. My feeling is dollar will get weaker by Christmas. It cannot sustain at this level.big question is can hobbit get all the LOTR audience. Then 1B is possible considering how big LOTR movies were everywhere. Even 1.2b os is possible.

[peludo]

I think there is almost 5 months to go. My feeling is dollar will get weaker by Christmas. It cannot sustain at this level.big question is can hobbit get all the LOTR audience. Then 1B is possible considering how big LOTR movies were everywhere. Even 1.2b os is possible.

That's the problem. If Hobbit keep the LOTR audience we would be talking about 1.5 billion+ OS (not kidding). I asume about a 30-40% drop in attendance, that is highly compensated by inflation, 3D and expanding markets (I expect 200 million more than ROTK by adding Brazil, Mexico, Russia and China)

[Michael Seng Wah]

Looking the foreign grosses DH2 did, the only big markets I see DH2 can beat TH are France, Japan (both barely) and Asian southeast countries like Hong Kong, Malaysia or Singapore. Sincerely, the other grosses are beatable

Harry Potter is popular in Malaysia but effects movies like Transformers, are more popular. TF3 still is the highest grossing entry in Malaysia, even Avengers lose with a few millions in local currency. TH can easily break DH2 as I see the hype is high for it ^^

1 Transformers 3 UIP $10,881,761 6/30 2 Kung Fu Panda 2 UIP $6,012,559 5/26 3 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol UIP $5,663,435 12/15 4 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) Disney $5,572,226 5/19 5 Fast Five UIP $5,522,487 5/5 6 Johnny English Reborn UIP $5,201,268 9/15 7 Real Steel Disney $4,825,353 10/13 8 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) WB $4,620,830 7/14

Edited July 31, 2012 by Michael89