The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[peludo]

Germany bo is not in a good shape either. IA3 did 82M there while IA4 failed 60M. Even bigger decrease in admissions. TH has no chance to match LORT movies in admissions in Ger. Maybe IA4 number is already the up limit there under current condition.Japan also does not look good for HW movies this year. We once thought Brave could easily make 50M there yet it even failed 20M.POTC4 was a beast in Russia which made 65M there, all time #2 for HW movies. But big HW movies since then didnt come close to that number anymore. doubt TH can match POTC4.As for UK, I am thinking 80M-ish, right along side with TDKR. Though I wont rule out 100MFor these developed markets, LOTR was 10 years ago. Things changed significantly. We dont know how much it will decrease from LOTR (yes, decreases in these developed markets overally are inevitable in my opinion.) And how much expanding makets will embrace TH depends on its quality.

I am asuming a 30-40% drop in admissions in developed markets. Inflation, 3D and better exchange rates make the 2001-2003 developed markets numbers can stay flat relative to ROTK.Germany: IA4 has grossed 63 . Other franchise like Harry Potter has kept its gross along the years. In fact, last year DH2 grossed 78 million. I know it was the final movie, but DH1 had grossed 65 million in 2010, nearly the same than HP1 (67). Well, FOTR was 10 million higher than HP1 and TTT was 19 million higher than HP2.In Russia, POTC was already very big before POTC4. Last year every franchise increased a lot relative to previous movies:POTC3 (2007) vs POTC4 (2011): 30 million vs 63 (110%)HP5 (2007) vs DH2 (2011): 16 vs 36 (125%)Transformers (2007) vs Transformers 3 (2011): 15 vs 45 (200%)Shrek 3 (2007) vs Puss in boots (2011): 23 vs 50 (117%)Ice age 2 (2006) vs Ice age 4 (2012): 19 vs 49 (158%)POTC did 9 million in 2003. TTT did 8.8 and ROTK did 14.United Kingdom: as Heretic has said there is no way TH makes less than TDKR or Avengers. I think the minimum is 60 million pounds (about 97 million $ today)In Japan we have this evolution this year: TDK (14) vs TDKR (24) and MIB2 (28) vs MIB3 (38). My impression is that Japanese people love some Hollywood movies and franchises, but there are many other movies or franchises which they are not interested in. Last year both DH2 and POTC4 surpassed 100 million there. POTC1 did 58 million in 2003, POTC2 did 84 and POTC3 did 91.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Great breakdown. Though I am just still not convinced 1B OS.

[peludo]

Great breakdown. Though I am just still not convinced 1B OS.

Thank you . I know it is difficult to reach that number (beyond Avatar and Titanic) but I think we have been rounding it enough time with POTC4, DH2 or TA, and Hobbit has enough potential to reach it.

[John Marston]

I don';t think AUJ can reach 1 billion overseas. Either one or both of the follow ups I think could though

[Rudolf]

I don';t think AUJ can reach 1 billion overseas. Either one or both of the follow ups I think could though

TH1 has better chances than TH2 IMHO

[Fake]

Out..... thinking 750-775m atm.....

[Rudolf]

I think 750 OS are almost locked as are 1b WW.

[Fake]

Nothing is locked......

[Rudolf]

Nothing is locked......

that is why I said almost

[Rudolf]

For my statistical coparision of preferences for Return Of The King (2003) I had to sum up the 15 biggestHollywood-blockbusters of 2003 for the countries where I could find them. Comparing them with the values of 2011, you get a factor that accounts for inflation, exchange-rate-changes, changing in cinema going preferencces and 3D supplements for the countries with data. Using these factors you get predictions for The Hobbit1:Germany 101.4mAustria 11.5mItaly 44.8mUK 115.4mAustralia 63.8mChina 118.8mFrance 67.9mRussia 59.5mJapan 82.4m (smaller value because Hollywood decreases there)South Korea 42.5mArrgenina 11.5mMexico 31.4mYou can mentally substract a percentage for franchise fatigue, if you want. So predictions of 100+ in China have some merit.

[peludo]

For my statistical coparision of preferences for Return Of The King (2003) I had to sum up the 15 biggestHollywood-blockbusters of 2003 for the countries where I could find them. Comparing them with the values of 2011, you get a factor that accounts for inflation, exchange-rate-changes, changing in cinema going preferencces and 3D supplements for the countries with data. Using these factors you get predictions for The Hobbit1:Germany 101.4mAustria 11.5mItaly 44.8mUK 115.4mAustralia 63.8mChina 118.8mFrance 67.9mRussia 59.5mJapan 82.4m (smaller value because Hollywood decreases there)South Korea 42.5mArrgenina 11.5mMexico 31.4mYou can mentally substract a percentage for franchise fatigue, if you want. So predictions of 100+ in China have some merit.

Those numbers are quite close to my predictions . ROTK grossed 493 million in these countries. The numbers you have given add 750.9. That is a 52% increase. TH1 needs a 34% increase over ROTK's 742 million to get 1 billion OS. Edited September 26, 2012 by peludo

[IndustriousAngel]

Good news for Austria ... at least all five theaters of the small "Hollywood Megaplex"-chain have upgraded their equipment (Christies) and will show "The Hobbit" in 48fps. No news yet from Cineplexx which is the biggest chain and belongs to distributor Constantin but I guess they can't let that happen so I guess every Austrian will have access to "The Hobbit" in 48fps.

[peludo]

Good news for Austria ... at least all five theaters of the small "Hollywood Megaplex"-chain have upgraded their equipment (Christies) and will show "The Hobbit" in 48fps. No news yet from Cineplexx which is the biggest chain and belongs to distributor Constantin but I guess they can't let that happen so I guess every Austrian will have access to "The Hobbit" in 48fps.

I envy you. I wish I can watch it in 48fps.

[Bluebomb]

The only way to get an accurate prediction is discussing country by country. My predictions for the moment are:Hong Kong - 8Indonesia - 2.5Malaysia - 7Philippines - 5Singapore - 6Thailand - 5

HK will do more than 8m. IMAX and 3D prices will make sure of it.Indonesia will do much more than 2.5m. It's a bigger market than Philippines. For this type of movie, it won't make less than what Philippines makes. I think Thailand will make slightly more...about 7-8m. LOTR: ROTK made 4.6m there and handily beat Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia's grosses.

[peludo]

HK will do more than 8m. IMAX and 3D prices will make sure of it.Indonesia will do much more than 2.5m. It's a bigger market than Philippines. For this type of movie, it won't make less than what Philippines makes. I think Thailand will make slightly more...about 7-8m. LOTR: ROTK made 4.6m there and handily beat Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia's grosses.

Thank you very much for your corrections . I had predicted those numbers comparing with other franchises like Harry Potter or PIrates but I must confess I do not know very well Asian southeast markets. Furthermore, I do not want to overpredict.My purpose giving the whole list with (nearly) every market is that other posters like you, who know wide better than me the tastes of the country where he lives, can give a better prediction. Together we can give a better prediction for OS global number. Not only for this movie, but for every movie. Edited September 27, 2012 by peludo

[peludo]

This has been posted in China forum by firedeep, who knows very well Chinese market:

Skyfall in middle January, one of the worst release dates, same day (or week) with the Hobbit, one month of theater time.

This factor changes the prevision in China. Something very similar has happened in August/September with TASM, TDKR, Prometheus and TE2. All of them have made, more or less, about 50 million (excepting Prometheus, which did 34), when they had potential to 70-80. I will say about 80 million for The Hobbit instead 125 in China.

[The Toymaker]

$1B WW, maybe.$300m DOM$680m OSGive or take 10%.

[The Toymaker]

I think it'll make about $30m-$40m from China. Never seen any interest for LOTR in China. They prefer things like Transformers, in my opinion.

[peludo]

I think it'll make about $30m-$40m from China. Never seen any interest for LOTR in China. They prefer things like Transformers, in my opinion.

I have never been in China and I don't know their tastes very well but the numbers say that ROTK did 10.4 million in 2004. In the same year it was only surpassed by 3 Chinese movies. It was over movies like The day after tomorrow (10.3 million too), Troy (8), Spiderman 2 (6.5) or Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (4.6).And in Chinese forum it has always been said that Hobbit could go easily over 100 million. The fact that it has to compete with Skyfall will affect it and make TH not reach 100 million, but I think 80-90 are still reachable.

[Heretic]

Once again, Algren is proving he knows next to nothing about the BO.

Edited October 14, 2012 by Heretic