South Korea Box Office

[mr1006]

Oppenheimer is getting rave reviews from Korean critics. A prominent critic gave it 8/10 (for reference, that's the same score he gave Saving Private Ryan, Parasite, Inception, and No Country for Old Men). I can see the movie breaking out.

[eeetooki]

Already got someone to buy me all those Oppenheimer Korean movie goodies lol

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

@keysersoze123

Movie	Total Recall	R2B	War for the Planet of the Apes	The Witness	The Meg
Year	2012	2012	2017	2018	2018
Day of Release	Wednesday	Wednesday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Wednesday
CGV Golden Egg	N/A	N/A	89	88	81
OD	250,229	206,793	568,308	368,981	157,303
FSS	432,154	394,740	683,488	810,587	200,353
OWeek	871,898	769,214	1,605,663	1,579,114	456,179
Total	1,219,637	1,201,948	2,051,315	2,524,720	527,332
FSS/OD	1.727	1.909	1.203	2.197	1.274
Oweek/OD	3.484	3.720	2.825	4.280	2.900

 

I could only find 5 movies over the last 15 years that opened on August 15 on a Tuesday or Wednesday. In the years when Liberation Day landed on a Monday, movies would simply open in the prior week/end and treat it as a 4-day OW. Any year where Liberation Day landed on a Thursday I deemed too close to the OW to make comparison useful. Of these five movies, none of them had amazing WOM, I expect Oppenheimer to be received better given the worldwide reception, which should lead to better holds. With that said it seems 3-4x the OD is typical for the opening week, and around 2x for the FSS OW. WFTPOTA had a tremendous amount of competition, it opened next to two other local holdovers that also did 400k+ admissions on Aug 15 and then ran into another big opener the week after so it lost screens quickly, explaining the poor multiplier. Oppy should have a clear path to dominate the upcoming weeks so its multiplier probably isn't applicable.

 

 

Every movie on the list above obviously had terrible WOM considering how front loaded they were. I am waiting for CGV Egg/Naver scores before we judge Oppy. I am hoping for much better legs. 

[TalismanRing]

Aug 12, 2023: SATURDAY

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Concrete Utopia South Korea	Aug 09, 2023	$3,389,337 ($8,127,157)	450,688 (1,118,265)	1,730	53.39%
2		Smugglers South Korea	Jul 26, 2023	$1,273,654 ($30,350,035)	170,120 (4,194,029)	1,186	20.06%
3		Elemental U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$573,941 ($48,439,040)	76,346 (6,569,135)	769	9.04%
4		Ransomed South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$369,804 ($6,747,962)	49,366 (933,375)	753	5.82%
5		Mission: Impossible U.S.	Jul 12, 2023	$184,645 ($29,741,411)	24,668 (3,939,684)	414	2.9%
6		The Moon South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$151,252 ($3,536,548)	20,101 (465,420)	563	2.38%
7		Octonauts: Above and Beyond U.K.	Aug 10, 2023	$75,446 ($200,223)	11,278 (30,567)	245	1.18%
8		Detective Conan Japan	Jul 20, 2023	$74,302 ($5,172,474)	9,806 (721,595)	225	1.17%
9		Running Man : Revengers South Korea	Aug 10, 2023	$50,379 ($111,799)	7,493 (18,498)	221	0.79%
10		Barbie U.S.	Jul 19, 2023	$56,802 ($4,035,459)	7,014 (548,947)	149	0.89%

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

On 8/11/2023 at 4:15 PM, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Oppenheimer Presales (T-3)

Current PS = 261,310 (+49,982)

Current ATP = ₩13,874 ($10.44)

Today's ATP = ₩9,223 ($6.94)

 

 

Traditional comps

• 1.182x of Thor 4 at T-3 -> 536k T-0
• 2.741x of Smugglers at T-3 -> 665k T-0
• 2.312x of GOTG 3 at T-3 -> 624k T-0
• 1.297x of Captain Marvel at T-3-> 573k T-0
• 3.735x of Concrete Utopia at T-3 -> 649k T-0
• 0.497x of Dr. Strange 2 at T-3 -> 513k T-0
• Comps Average -> 594k T-0
• Opening Day Range -> 594k - 772k admissions ($5.30m - $6.89m)

 

 

Pace-adjusted comps (last 3 days)

• 1.046x of Thor 4's pace at T-3 -> 560k T-0
• 1.247x of Smugglers's pace at T-3 -> 830k T-0
• 0.915x of GOTG 3's pace at T-3 -> 571k T-0
• 0.912x of Captain Marvel's pace at T-3 -> 523k T-0
• 1.226x of Concrete Utopia's pace at T-3 -> 795k T-0
• 1.018x of Dr. Strange 2's pace at T-3 -> 523k T-0
• Comps Average -> 634k T-0
• Opening Day Range -> 634k - 824k admissions ($5.65m - $7.35m)

Crazy day, Oppenheimer outpaced every comp significantly, resulting in a big jump in the estimates. If this is because of EA then this would significantly deflate the OD as we saw with MI7 earlier this summer. If this is genuine natural growth then we're gonna be seeing fireworks on August 15! Lastly the ATP is coming down very quickly now. The KRW cratering vs. the USD is not helping things. I think it's probably gonna fall a little bit short of Avatar 2's $8.92 ATP by OD, somewhere around $8.50 perhaps, so you can maybe adjust the USD estimates slightly down.

 

00:25 Update - no sign of Oppenheimer on Saturday's CGV start, this looks promising...

Oppenheimer Presales (T-2)

Current PS = 318,362 (+57,052)

Current ATP = ₩13,359 ($10.04)

Today's ATP = ₩11,000 ($8.27)

 

 

Traditional comps

• 1.201x of Thor 4 at T-2 -> 544k T-0
• 2.769x of Smugglers at T-2 -> 672k T-0
• 2.274x of GOTG 3 at T-2 -> 614k T-0
• 1.317x of Captain Marvel at T-2-> 582k T-0
• 4.001x of Concrete Utopia at T-2 -> 695k T-0
• 0.501x of Dr. Strange 2 at T-2 -> 517k T-0
• Comps Average -> 604k T-0
• Opening Day Range -> 604k - 785k admissions ($5.39m - $7.00m)

 

Pace-adjusted comps (last 2 days)

• 1.109x of Thor 4's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 604k T-0
• 1.143x of Smugglers's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 769k T-0
• 1.022x of GOTG 3's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 628k T-0
• 1.075x of Captain Marvel's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 626k T-0
• 1.253x of Concrete Utopia's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 871k T-0
• 1.082x of Dr. Strange 2's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 560k T-0
• Comps Average -> 676k T-0
• Opening Day Range -> 676k - 879k admissions ($6.03m - $7.84m)

Higher ATP today, maybe theatres added more PLF showings to meet demand. This might still end up close to Avatar 2's $8.92 ATP by opening day. To give you an idea of what to expect, 431k by midnight tomorrow will maintain the traditional comp average while 455k will maintain the pace-adjusted average going into the final day.

Edited August 12, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[charlie Jatinder]

Will guess 525-550K final presales. Now this will

be quite backloaded though there is holiday to consider.

 

Lets see where day start, but would expect CGV around 80K ish start and end at 140-150k ish.

 

325-350K OD may be.

 

on high end, something like 100K start, 170K finish for 400K ish.

 

Weekend perhaps

 

400

200

175

225

400

375 // 1.8M ish

Edited August 13, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

I'd be surprised if the PSM is that low, but then again Avatar 2 did have a very low PSM earlier this year and that was very PLF-heavy. August 15 seems like a very walk-up heavy day though just looking at the numbers in previous years, which should boost it. One thing I've not considered is three other movies opening on that day, Guardian, Sweet Water and Meg 2 so there's gonna be a screen clash between those four and the holdovers which might prevent massive numbers on Oppenheimer's OD.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

@keysersoze123 I decided to look at some other national holidays to expand the search for movies with better WOM and I found one good comp. Logan opened on Independence Movement Day; March 1 2017 (Wednesday) and had a 96% CGV golden egg score. Its first week dailies looked like this:

 

Day	Adm.	%YD
Wed	256,255
Thu	91,603	-64%
Fri	120,875	+32%
Sat	269,116	+123%
Sun	243,001	-10%
Mon	87,367	-64%
Tue	78,915	-10%

 

For a FSS of 632,992 which is 2.47x the OD and a OWeek of 1,147,132 which is 4.48x the OD. Notably Logan had some big competition from a local movie 'Blue Beard' which opened on the same day to 386k admissions and 984k for the OWeek. It had bad WOM but Logan could have probably done better without it. If Oppenheimer gets similar levels of praise I think it can gun for >2.5x the OD for the weekend since it's weekend-skewing anyway and 4.5x the OD for the first week. It could go higher if it opens softer like @across the Jat verse is predicting.

 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

18 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Oppenheimer Presales (T-2)

Current PS = 318,362 (+57,052)

Current ATP = ₩13,359 ($10.04)

Today's ATP = ₩11,000 ($8.27)

 

 

Traditional comps

• 1.201x of Thor 4 at T-2 -> 544k T-0
• 2.769x of Smugglers at T-2 -> 672k T-0
• 2.274x of GOTG 3 at T-2 -> 614k T-0
• 1.317x of Captain Marvel at T-2-> 582k T-0
• 4.001x of Concrete Utopia at T-2 -> 695k T-0
• 0.501x of Dr. Strange 2 at T-2 -> 517k T-0
• Comps Average -> 604k T-0
• Opening Day Range -> 604k - 785k admissions ($5.39m - $7.00m)

 

Pace-adjusted comps (last 2 days)

• 1.109x of Thor 4's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 604k T-0
• 1.143x of Smugglers's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 769k T-0
• 1.022x of GOTG 3's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 628k T-0
• 1.075x of Captain Marvel's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 626k T-0
• 1.253x of Concrete Utopia's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 871k T-0
• 1.082x of Dr. Strange 2's 2-day pace at T-2 -> 560k T-0
• Comps Average -> 676k T-0
• Opening Day Range -> 676k - 879k admissions ($6.03m - $7.84m)

Higher ATP today, maybe theatres added more PLF showings to meet demand. This might still end up close to Avatar 2's $8.92 ATP by opening day. To give you an idea of what to expect, 431k by midnight tomorrow will maintain the traditional comp average while 455k will maintain the pace-adjusted average going into the final day.

Oppenheimer Presales (T-1)

Current PS = 395,936 (+77,574)

Current ATP = ₩12,839 ($9.65)

Today's ATP = ₩10,707 ($8.05)

 

 

Traditional comps

• 1.165x of Thor 4 at T-1 -> 528k T-0
• 2.428x of Smugglers at T-1 -> 589k T-0
• 2.062x of GOTG 3 at T-1 -> 557k T-0
• 1.257x of Captain Marvel at T-1-> 555k T-0
• 3.381x of Concrete Utopia at T-1 -> 587k T-0
• 0.498x of Dr. Strange 2 at T-1 -> 514k T-0
• Comps Average -> 555k T-0

 

 

Pace-adjusted comps (last day)

• 0.969x of Thor 4's pace at T-1 -> 512k T-0
• 0.877x of Smugglers's pace at T-1 -> 517k T-0
• 0.907x of GOTG 3's pace at T-1 -> 505k T-0
• 0.954x of Captain Marvel's pace at T-1 -> 530k T-0
• 0.845x of Concrete Utopia's pace at T-1 -> 496k T-0
• 0.995x of Dr. Strange 2's pace at T-1 -> 512k T-0
• Comps Average -> 512k T-0

Looks like Jat's range is pretty spot on for T-0. As for the opening day I don't have a clue. Avatar 2 had an extremely low 0.419x PSM, Oppenheimer will for sure be higher but maybe not as high as the 1-1.3x ratio I was predicting earlier if the presales are this backloaded. Comparing with Avatar 2's OWeek/T-0 ratio gives 1.91m - 2.07m admissions for the first seven days, call it 2m, which would be around $16-18m depending on the ATP. Very well received movies can 3x the OWeek or better so $50m final seems like a good target for Oppy provided it has good WOM, otherwise close to $30m final.

Edited August 13, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[TalismanRing]

Aug 13, 2023: SUNDAY

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Concrete Utopia South Korea	Aug 09, 2023	$3,220,768 ($11,349,992)	427,564 (1,546,067)	1,697	53.31%
2		Smugglers South Korea	Jul 26, 2023	$1,208,466 ($31,559,284)	161,260 (4,355,386)	1,161	20%
3		Elemental U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$573,750 ($49,012,795)	76,436 (6,645,573)	763	9.49%
4		Ransomed South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$356,062 ($7,104,353)	48,011 (981,434)	759	5.89%
5		Mission: Impossible U.S.	Jul 12, 2023	$173,831 ($29,915,320)	23,253 (3,962,949)	405	2.87%
6		The Moon South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$137,270 ($3,673,828)	18,402 (483,828)	563	2.27%
7		Detective Conan Japan	Jul 20, 2023	$69,226 ($5,241,681)	9,272 (730,865)	225	1.14%
8		Octonauts U.K.	Aug 10, 2023	$61,372 ($261,609)	9,081 (39,651)	240	1.01%
9		Monster Family 2 U.K.	Aug 02, 2023	$40,991 ($645,104)	7,220 (99,766)	259	0.67%
10		Running Man : Revengers South Korea	Aug 10, 2023	$47,649 ($159,480)	7,028 (25,532)	215	0.78%

 

[TalismanRing]

W/E Drops

Smugglers: -54.63%

Elemental: - 33.92%

Ransomed: -71.52%

MI 7:  -54.4%

Moon: -72.63%

 

Aug 11, 2023 ~ Aug 13, 2023

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Weekly Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Concrete Utopia South Korea	Aug 09, 2023	$8,406,602 ($11,349,992)	1,129,525 (1,546,067)	1,731	53.44%
2		Smugglers South Korea	Jul 26, 2023	$3,150,333 ($31,559,284)	425,366 (4,355,386)	1,186	20.02%
3		Elemental U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$1,433,154 ($49,012,795)	192,830 (6,645,573)	769	9.11%
4		Ransomed South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$922,890 ($7,104,353)	125,390 (981,434)	759	5.86%
5		Mission: Impossible U.S.	Jul 12, 2023	$453,693 ($29,915,320)	61,255 (3,962,949)	414	2.88%
6		The Moon South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$369,502 ($3,673,828)	50,581 (483,828)	598	2.34%
7		Detective Conan Japan	Jul 20, 2023	$194,008 ($5,241,681)	26,357 (730,865)	225	1.23%
8		Octonauts U.K.	Aug 10, 2023	$158,582 ($261,609)	23,841 (39,651)	245	1%
9		Barbie U.S.	Jul 19, 2023	$146,697 ($4,090,227)	18,517 (555,760)	149	0.93%
10		Running Man : Revengers South Korea	Aug 10, 2023	$120,618 ($159,480)	18,247 (25,532)	221	0.76%

Edited August 13, 2023 by TalismanRing

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

On 8/6/2023 at 4:09 PM, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Total Presales for the upcoming days as of Monday 00:00

 

Holdovers

(%Yesterday/%Last Week)

Elemental - 18,020 (-58%/-63%)

 

Didn't log exactly what the number was, but Elemental's Monday 00:00 PS total was around 27k today, so almost a 50% increase on last week. Most of that is probably concentrated around Tuesday since it's a holiday but it's still a good jump, particularly when Smugglers only had a small increase while Ransomed and The Moon dropped over 55% each. Oppy will be taking most of Concrete Utopia and Smugglers's screens anyway so I don't think the drops for Elemental next week will be anywhere near as bad as last week, 7m+ is still in play.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Looking like somewhere around 570k for Oppenheimer at T-0

Meg 2 looking like a huge flop, the first one had very bad WOM but it still managed to open to 157k and finish with 527k admissions, this one is gonna barely scrape 20k TOTAL presales at T-0

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Looking like somewhere around 570k for Oppenheimer at T-0

Meg 2 looking like a huge flop, the first one had very bad WOM but it still managed to open to 157k and finish with 527k admissions, this one is gonna barely scrape 20k TOTAL presales at T-0

So its doing better than all pace adjusted comps you had put yesterday and looking at traditional comps, its doing better than all hollywood movies. Only Smugglers/Concrete Utopia would stay ahead. 

 

If I am not wrong CGV is around 50% of overall PS and tomorrow being National Day would it skew more than normal. I am hoping its more than 100K that Charlie put as optimistic number. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

23 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Oppenheimer Presales (T-1)

Current PS = 395,936 (+77,574)

Current ATP = ₩12,839 ($9.65)

Today's ATP = ₩10,707 ($8.05)

 

 

Traditional comps

• 1.165x of Thor 4 at T-1 -> 528k T-0
• 2.428x of Smugglers at T-1 -> 589k T-0
• 2.062x of GOTG 3 at T-1 -> 557k T-0
• 1.257x of Captain Marvel at T-1-> 555k T-0
• 3.381x of Concrete Utopia at T-1 -> 587k T-0
• 0.498x of Dr. Strange 2 at T-1 -> 514k T-0
• Comps Average -> 555k T-0

 

 

Pace-adjusted comps (last day)

• 0.969x of Thor 4's pace at T-1 -> 512k T-0
• 0.877x of Smugglers's pace at T-1 -> 517k T-0
• 0.907x of GOTG 3's pace at T-1 -> 505k T-0
• 0.954x of Captain Marvel's pace at T-1 -> 530k T-0
• 0.845x of Concrete Utopia's pace at T-1 -> 496k T-0
• 0.995x of Dr. Strange 2's pace at T-1 -> 512k T-0
• Comps Average -> 512k T-0

Looks like Jat's range is pretty spot on for T-0. As for the opening day I don't have a clue. Avatar 2 had an extremely low 0.419x PSM, Oppenheimer will for sure be higher but maybe not as high as the 1-1.3x ratio I was predicting earlier if the presales are this backloaded. Comparing with Avatar 2's OWeek/T-0 ratio gives 1.91m - 2.07m admissions for the first seven days, call it 2m, which would be around $16-18m depending on the ATP. Very well received movies can 3x the OWeek or better so $50m final seems like a good target for Oppy provided it has good WOM, otherwise close to $30m final.

Oppenheimer Presales (T-0)

Current PS = 572,705 (+176,769)

Current ATP = ₩12,060 ($9.02)

Today's ATP = ₩10,316 ($7.71)

 

 

 

Traditional comps

 

• 1.263x of Thor 4 at T-0 -> 483k OD
• 2.359x of Smugglers at T-0 -> 750k OD
• 2.121x of GOTG 3 at T-0 -> 346k OD
• 1.296x of Captain Marvel at T-0 -> 598k OD
• 3.297x of Concrete Utopia at T-0 -> 760k OD
• 0.554x of Dr. Strange 2 at T-0 -> 397k OD
• Comps Average -> 556k OD ($5.02m @ $9.02 ATP)

This isn't an exhaustive list of comps, just the ones I've been using. Take the estimate with a grain of salt since Oppenheimer's OD is a special case. IMO it should be bigger than the MCU comps which opened on a normal Wednesday but probably smaller than Smugglers and Concrete Utopia which opened on Culture Day and in the summer holidays respectively while also being smaller so had more room to grow.

 

We'll have much more accurate estimates for Oppy's OD in literally 15 minutes anyway once the CGV start drops.

[keysersoze123]

Does Oppenheimer have midnight shows or will it be normal morning start?

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

CGV Starts - 00:20

 

Oppenheimer - 158,000 (approx. 316,000-395,000 admissions)

Elemental - 16,000

Concrete Utopia - 47,000

Sweet Sea - 24,000

Guardian - 10,000

Smugglers - 18,000

Meg 2 - 13,000

 

Nevermind, it's playing like Smugglers LOL 800k+ admissions ($7.2m+) is on the table for the OD if the walkups are good and we get the good ratio (~40%)

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

CGV Final / CGV Start Multipliers for recent tentpoles

 

Again not exhaustive, but just the ones I have. I'm looking at the opening day for the following five movies and also the multiplier on their opening Saturday since today is obviously gonna play more like a weekend

 

Movie	OD	First Sat
GOTG3	1.872	2.148
Avatar 2	1.704	1.516
MI7	2.136	2.097
DS2	1.729	2.000
Smugglers	2.280	3.050
Average	1.944	2.162

 

Low estimate (50% CGV ratio, 1.944 multiplier) -> 614k opening day (~$5.53m)

High estimate (40% CGV ratio, 2.162 multiplier) -> 854k opening day (~$7.70m)

 

Let's see if Oppy runs into any capacity issues, hopefully its walkups play closer to Smugglers than Avatar 2 but Avatar 2's low multi is somewhat of a bummer given the similarities between the two. Indeed the long runtime might affect walkups since there will be fewer showings so 800k+ estimates might be getting a bit carried away. Still, even the absolute worst case scenario (50% CGV ratio, Avatar 2 first Sat IM) leads to a 479k opening day and ~$4.3m which is higher than I was predicting just a few days ago lol.

Edited August 14, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[TalismanRing]

Aug 14, 2023: MONDAY

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Concrete Utopia South Korea	Aug 09, 2023	$2,045,594 ($13,363,030)	286,972 (1,833,232)	1,615	52.84%
2		Smugglers South Korea	Jul 26, 2023	$831,436 ($32,296,664)	117,840 (4,473,290)	1,102	21.47%
3		Elemental U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$355,946 ($49,222,079)	49,904 (6,695,490)	718	9.19%
4		Ransomed South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$210,039 ($7,293,442)	30,146 (1,011,634)	685	5.42%
5		Mission: Impossible U.S.	Jul 12, 2023	$137,586 ($29,963,389)	19,098 (3,982,056)	398	3.55%
6		The Moon South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$85,447 ($3,748,111)	12,589 (496,407)	540	2.2%
7		Detective Conan Japan	Jul 20, 2023	$44,632 ($5,270,627)	6,052 (736,919)	212	1.15%
8		Barbie U.S.	Jul 19, 2023	$39,613 ($4,117,619)	5,228 (560,994)	143	1.02%
9		Monster Family 2 U.K.	Aug 02, 2023	$22,762 ($665,946)	3,985 (103,754)	243	0.58%
10		Octonauts: Above and Beyond U.K.	Aug 10, 2023	$19,343 ($280,175)	3,014 (42,666)	198	0.49%

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Great jump for Elemental, hopefully it retains as many showings as it can tomorrow in the face of Oppy. Its CGV start for tomorrow is up around 150%.