Frozen OS thread

[catlover]

LOTR probably has a different demo to disney princess films, I'm thinking it skews much older which means holiday effect will be much less important. Narnia was an adaption of a very well known and popular book. Frozen is an original animated film albeit with huge global WoM, but original animation nonetheless, which probably means it would have performed much better in december. Not saying it did bad mind you, because it's the highest grossing OW for an animated film outside of ghibli/pixar/franchise but just think dec would have been the better month for a release. The highest grossing pixar films MU, FN, TS3 were released in july/dec too.According to corpse, july/dec has the best multipliers in the year.

 

You just answered your own question. LOTR and Narnia are based on well-known books, and MU, FN, TS3 have Pixar brand. Frozen is an original animated film. So without the hype from worldwide success, Let It Go & soundtrack popularity, and Oscars, Frozen would have opened lower (may around half) than it actually did in March. Yes with December release legs would have probably been better, but with smaller OW, wouldn't it be the same or even lower in the end? For example, $4m OW with 15x multiplier will give it $60m total, but $7m OW with smaller 10x multiplier will give it $70m. Which one is better?

Edited March 17, 2014 by catlover

[Olive]

Frozen monday is much better than Doraemon.

[Rsyu]

You just answered your own question. LOTR and Narnia are based on well-known books, and MU, FN, TS3 have Pixar brand. Frozen is an original animated film. So without the hype from worldwide success, Let It Go & soundtrack popularity, and Oscars, Frozen would have opened lower (may around half) than it actually did in March. Yes with December release legs would have probably been better, but with smaller OW, wouldn't it be the same or even lower in the end? For example, $4m OW with 15x multiplier will give it $60m total, but $7m OW with smaller 10x multiplier will give it $70m. Which one is better?

As les miserables has proven, if the WoM is strong enough legs can go above and beyond expectations. Also I disagree that OW for frozen would have been much lower in december. WoM was great back then too and in a country as wired as Japan, WoM spreads extremely fast. Also Frozen opened in SK on Jan 16th and it literally exploded. A country that was indifferent to disney and animations in general managed to gross the highest OS to date. Now imagine that in a country with twice the population, loves animation and has traditionally long legs with great multipliers in december.

[Omni]

Frozen monday is much better than Doraemon.

You mean Doraemon's first Monday, right?

 

Edit: nevermind, just checked the Japan thread ^^

Edited March 17, 2014 by Omni

[Olive]

You mean Doraemon's first Monday, right?

Doraemon 2nd Monday is also better than 1st Monday.

[catlover]

As les miserables has proven, if the WoM is strong enough legs can go above and beyond expectations.Also I disagree that OW for frozen would have been much lower in december. WoM was great back then too and in a country as wired as Japan, WoM spreads extremely fast. Also Frozen opened in SK on Jan 16th and it literally exploded. A country that was indifferent to disney and animations in general managed to gross the highest OS to date. Now imagine that in a country with twice the population, loves animation and has traditionally long legs with great multipliers in december.

 

Again, you answered your own question. The same thing with Frozen. if WOM is strong enough, it can have winter legs in spring. Speaking of WOM, yes it was great back then in December, but not as great as today. No "$1b WW", "3rd biggest 5th & 6th weekend in the US", "#1 on Billboard 200" marketing, because well, those hadn't happened yet. Let It Go also hadn't been as big. That marketing, and the songs (especially Let It Go) were the things that eventually pushed its OW to be that big. So yeah, I'm pretty sure it would have smaller OW in December.

 

By January, the hype got bigger than ever. Correct me if I'm wrong, in SK, mid-January was the perfect release date. Enough hype from other countries to build solid OW, and then lunar new year holiday to boost its gross. But in Japan, January & February are not the best months to release a movie. No holiday boost, no breaks. So March release was actually the best option, with spring breaks, 3-day holiday this weekend, and Golden Week to help its late legs.

 

Also, think about this. Nobody knew that Frozen would be this big. Like I said, In Japan, Disney thanksgiving movies have always been released in March. It's working really well for those movies before, so why would they change the release date for Frozen?

Edited March 17, 2014 by catlover

[catlover]

I copied from Japan BO thread.

 

Frozen 3-day actuals: 986.4M yen($9.72M)

Sat-sun OW: 763.4M yen($7.53m), 90.1% of MU.

OW admissions: 602,347 (MU:614,969)

 

Admission-wise it was very close to MU. It would have beaten MU with Saturday release. I'm still amazed.

Edited March 17, 2014 by catlover

[Olive]

Frozen daily numbers in Japan:

 

Date-Gross-Change-Admissions

3/14- ￥223M/$2.20M -   N/A   - 193k

3/15- ￥361M/$3.56M- +61.8%- 286k

3/16- ￥402M/$3.96M- +11.4%- 316k

[Rsyu]

Again, you answered your own question. The same thing with Frozen. if WOM is strong enough, it can have winter legs in spring. Speaking of WOM, yes it was great back then in December, but not as great as today. No "$1b WW", "3rd biggest 5th & 6th weekend in the US", "#1 on Billboard 200" marketing, because well, those hadn't happened yet. Let It Go also hadn't been as big. That marketing, and the songs (especially Let It Go) were the things that eventually pushed its OW to be that big. So yeah, I'm pretty sure it would have smaller OW in December.

 

By January, the hype got bigger than ever. Correct me if I'm wrong, in SK, mid-January was the perfect release date. Enough hype from other countries to build solid OW, and then lunar new year holiday to boost its gross. But in Japan, January & February are not the best months to release a movie. No holiday boost, no breaks. So March release was actually the best option, with spring breaks, 3-day holiday this weekend, and Golden Week to help its late legs.

 

Also, think about this. Nobody knew that Frozen would be this big. Like I said, In Japan, Disney thanksgiving movies have always been released in March. It's working really well for those movies before, so why would they change the release date for Frozen?

 

Sorry I just don't think the OW would have been halved because of the WoM difference in december and march. You can make figures to support your case I guess but it isn't conclusive. You say the hype was bigger than ever in mid january but not in dec? I don't really see what's so different between those 2 time periods except gross. There was no $1bil ww, no academy awards then either. 

Also I never said release Jan&Feb. I only said Dec has the better multiplier so why not release then? So you said the WoM wasn't really big then and the OW would have been halved leading to a lower total gross.  I guess I just don't agree with this. 

 

Tangled grossed $31M and WiR grossed $29M with march releases. Considering the grosses from pixar films, I think they could do better than that. 

 

Sorry for sounding so argumentative

[mfantin65]

According to Corpse, this is not a bad release date at all. On the contrary, it may be the best option available: late opening to let the buzz and hype rise, and two holidays coming within 45 days. WIR increased by 4% and Doreamon by 7% last year on the same weekend, thanks to the holiday. So my prediction is 7.5/8.0M. Anything under 7 would be disappointing and probably a sign of frontloadness. Sub-7.5 would give me a 'meh', too. 'Awesome Land' is above 8.5M.

Oh my. We are predicting same number for the first time. Omni has stepped it up. The box office angels are weeping!I'm starting to think SK type bump. 10m next weekend, 30 total.

[catlover]

Sorry I just don't think the OW would have been halved because of the WoM difference in december and march. You can make figures to support your case I guess but it isn't conclusive. You say the hype was bigger than ever in mid january but not in dec? I don't really see what's so different between those 2 time periods except gross. There was no $1bil ww, no academy awards then either. 

Also I never said release Jan&Feb. I only said Dec has the better multiplier so why not release then? So you said the WoM wasn't really big then and the OW would have been halved leading to a lower total gross.  I guess I just don't agree with this. 

 

Tangled grossed $31M and WiR grossed $29M with march releases. Considering the grosses from pixar films, I think they could do better than that. 

 

Sorry for sounding so argumentative

 

Okay, maybe not half, but certainly lower OW. In mid-December Frozen had only made $164.8 in NA and people predicted its total to be $250m, while its OS total was only $101.6m. Do you think those numbers would create a hype big enough for a big OW in Japan? We didn't even realize Frozen's potential until the 3rd or 4th week of its US run. Frozen was released in most countries in mid to late December, and we didn't get the whole box office numbers for Christmas & New Year until after the holiday. So we just realized how big Frozen was in January.

 

You said a country as wired as Japan, WOM spreads extremely fast. That's true, but only within the country itself. They don't speak English, and the interest in English is relatively low compared to other countries. How could the WOM reach Japan? It could actually, through Japanese media. They were the one that brought the hype for Frozen to Japan. But they didn't pick it until January, because again, people didn't realize how big Frozen was gonna be. That's what made the difference. Even if you think the hype wasn't that different between December & January, but it sure is much much bigger now than in December, don't you think?

 

Well that was my argument on why I think Frozen would have lower OW in December. But I don't know why Disney always releases their thanksgiving movies in March, instead of December. Maybe the same reason for Frozen, to build hype, because Disney animations are not as big as Pixar. But in this case, for Frozen, I still think March release was the best option.

Edited March 17, 2014 by catlover

[LABAS]

OHOサイト上映25分前贩売数：20140317 （22:00 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名13212　104090　283　Frozen（Dubbed）*4962　*53526　188　 Frozen  (Subtitle）*3226　*66496　259　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検队～*2892　*28563　180　土竜の呗　潜入捜査官ＲＥＩＪＩ*1988　*33807　228　银の匙　Ｓｉｌｖｅｒ　Ｓｐｏｏｎ*1521　**7724　*16　 Frozen（３Ｄ・字幕版）**272　**1612　**4　 Frozen　（３Ｄ・字幕版・ＡＴＭＯＳ・ＴＣＸ）Today　：　19967Last Friday (Toho Discount Day)：　49224

 

109サイト上映25分前贩売数：20140317 （21:55 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名*4324　29614　100　アナと雪の女王　【吹替】**811　19018　*74　映画ドラえもん　２０１４**716　*3036　*14　アナと雪の女王　【字幕】Today：　5040Last Friday：7096

[druv10]

Sorry I just don't think the OW would have been halved because of the WoM difference in december and march. You can make figures to support your case I guess but it isn't conclusive. You say the hype was bigger than ever in mid january but not in dec? I don't really see what's so different between those 2 time periods except gross. There was no $1bil ww, no academy awards then either. 

Also I never said release Jan&Feb. I only said Dec has the better multiplier so why not release then? So you said the WoM wasn't really big then and the OW would have been halved leading to a lower total gross.  I guess I just don't agree with this. 

 

Tangled grossed $31M and WiR grossed $29M with march releases. Considering the grosses from pixar films, I think they could do better than that. 

 

Sorry for sounding so argumentative

 

Corpse answered this thoroughly. Late Japan release dates are better especially in this case as it won multiple Oscars but also 1B WW. Basically buzz and hype increases with late release date for movies that have great WOM. Now as for would it have done same if it was released in December, who knows but I trust Corpse and he said this release date is perfect so I'm going to go with that. 

[Boxx93]

 

 

Tangled grossed $31M and WiR grossed $29M with march releases. Considering the grosses from pixar films, I think they could do better than that. 

 

When Tangled was released in March 2011, there was an Earthquake and Tsunami that devastated the entire country. Hardly a good time to be at the movies. Without that, Tangled would have made $50m or more.

[Tower]

When Tangled was released in March 2011, there was an Earthquake and Tsunami that devastated the entire country. Hardly a good time to be at the movies. Without that, Tangled would have made $50m or more.

 

Or it would have made about the same and had a bigger opening and worse legs, it's hard to know in a leggy market like Japan.

[mfantin65]

OHOサイト上映25分前贩売数：20140317 （22:00 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名13212　104090　283　Frozen（Dubbed）*4962　*53526　188　 Frozen  (Subtitle）*3226　*66496　259　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検队～*2892　*28563　180　土竜の呗　潜入捜査官ＲＥＩＪＩ*1988　*33807　228　银の匙　Ｓｉｌｖｅｒ　Ｓｐｏｏｎ*1521　**7724　*16　 Frozen（３Ｄ・字幕版）**272　**1612　**4　 Frozen　（３Ｄ・字幕版・ＡＴＭＯＳ・ＴＣＸ）Today　：　19967Last Friday (Toho Discount Day)：　49224 109サイト上映25分前贩売数：20140317 （21:55 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名*4324　29614　100　アナと雪の女王　【吹替】**811　19018　*74　映画ドラえもん　２０１４**716　*3036　*14　アナと雪の女王　【字幕】Today：　5040Last Friday：7096

This is all chinese to me;)Does this basically say toho down 60% from friday admissions, but at higher tix prices? And the second set is a smaller chain but down only 30%?

[mfantin65]

Can we extrapolate a 50% decline in admissions from friday but maybe a 40% decline in revenue?

[Ray]

BOM is projecting Frozen to finish ahead of TDKR, good for #9 WW, but I guess not Skyfall. The latter is still what I'm hoping for... the OW might not suggest it, but I'm hoping that Frozen having good WOM and better-than-usual legs elsewhere will translate to a very good run in Japan... eventually.

[mfantin65]

BOM is projecting Frozen to finish ahead of TDKR, good for #9 WW, but I guess not Skyfall. The latter is still what I'm hoping for... the OW might not suggest it, but I'm hoping that Frozen having good WOM and better-than-usual legs elsewhere will translate to a very good run in Japan... eventually.

Ray subers is a writer not a statastician. He gets the numbers wrong all the time. It has a chance for 6th.Japan needs to do 80m to beat skyfall, 90m for rotk, 95 to beat Transf. Very possible. If frozen does 8m or more next weekend, 6th is a lock.

[Robertron]

Ray subers is a writer not a statastician. He gets the numbers wrong all the time. It has a chance for 6th.Japan needs to do 80m to beat skyfall, 90m for rotk, 95 to beat Transf. Very possible. If frozen does 8m or more next weekend, 6th is a lock.

This.Knowing how leggy Japan is, and the 10 million or so it's got left elsewhere, I'm failing to see a scenario where Frozen doesn't beat TF3...(This is providing it gets decent WoM in Japan of course)