Weekend (8/10-12/12) Estimates: Bourne Legacy 40.3M; Campaign 27.4M; Hope Springs 15.6M

[redfirebird2008]

Why are you saying wom is crap? LOL I was disappointed but there are a lot of people who seem to like it. WOM is mixed.

Mixed and crap might as well be the same thing. A 3 multiplier requires really good WOM in 2012.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah I give this about 5% chance to hit a 3x multi. 2.5 is likely I think.

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah I give this about 5% chance to hit a 3x multi. 2.5 is likely I think.

$100m is Universal's goal. If it struggles to get there, they will push it over.

[The Futurist]

Man, THG is still going, 21 weeks after the release ...

[Shawn Robbins]

Yea, I'm even questioning $100m at this point. That estimate coming in a hair over $40 million is suspect to say the least. They want the media coverage reporting a $40m opening -- but actuals could easily wind up closer to $38m.From there, word of mouth just doesn't look very good. Flixster rating is tanking rapidly and CinemaScore was disappointing. Not good signs.

[John Marston]

looks like TDKR might struggle to reach 450m.

[MovieMan89]

Yea, I'm even questioning $100m at this point. That estimate coming in a hair over $40 million is suspect to say the least. They want the media coverage reporting a $40m opening -- but actuals could easily wind up closer to $38m.From there, word of mouth just doesn't look very good. Flixster rating is tanking rapidly and CinemaScore was disappointing. Not good signs.

Yeah I don't think that weekend is staying anywhere near $40m either with actuals. That's way too soft of a Sunday hold. They're obviously just playing that number for media purposes. With a $38m OW or so it definitely could miss 100.

[lab276]

That's way too soft of a Sunday hold.

Really? It's right in line with everything for the past couple of weeks.

[lab276]

 

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count /Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	The Bourne Legacy	Uni.	$40,265,000	-	3,745	-	$10,752	$40,265,000	$125	1
2	N	The Campaign	WB	$27,440,000	-	3,205	-	$8,562	$27,440,000	-	1
3	1	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$19,540,000	-45.3%	3,690	-552	$5,295	$390,149,000	$250	4
4	N	Hope Springs	Sony	$15,600,000	-	2,361	-	$6,607	$20,053,000	-	1
5	3	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days	Fox	$8,200,000	-43.9%	3,398	+7	$2,413	$30,554,000	$22	2
6	2	Total Recall (2012)	Sony	$8,100,000	-68.3%	3,601	-	$2,249	$44,188,000	$125	2
7	4	Ice Age: Continental Drift	Fox	$6,750,000	-21.6%	3,102	-440	$2,176	$144,064,000	-	5
8	7	Ted	Uni.	$3,290,000	-41.7%	2,208	-559	$1,490	$209,915,000	$50	7
9	6	Step Up Revolution	Sum.	$2,850,000	-51.9%	1,898	-708	$1,502	$30,165,000	$33	3
11	5	The Watch	Fox	$2,200,000	-66.3%	2,461	-707	$894	$31,374,000	$68	3
10	8	The Amazing Spider-Man	Sony	$2,200,000	-50.0%	1,585	-840	$1,388	$255,543,000	$230	6
12	9	Brave	BV	$1,870,000	-37.4%	1,259	-851	$1,485	$227,320,000	$185	8

[redfirebird2008]

I wouldn't say it's "way too soft" of a Sunday hold, but I do think it's possible for the actual to come in under $40m. I don't think Universal will allow it to happen though. They'll fudge if they have to, just like Sony made sure that Total Recall 2012 didn't come in under Total Recall 1990 for opening weekend.

[lab276]

It's only just hit me how bad TR dropped.

[#ED]

19M is good for TDKR.

[Kalderic]

Not bad, but not overly impressive for bourne. I had hopes for more. Now to see if it can push past 100M.Good for campaign and impressive hold for ice age! As for tdk, it took a bit of a blow, but it's still got a good chance at 450. A tad sad at that drop for ASM... Oh well.

[Kalderic]

And awful for TR... Wow. That's really all I can say. Maybe it drops even more with actuall and falls 70%+... Lol

[Moviedweeb]

Does anyone know the last time a major studio didn't report the 2nd Friday estimate for one of their tentpoles until the weekend est.? I have never seen that happen before.

[ecstasy]

Total Recall just fell off the grid. Bourne just killed it. TDKR still dropped well under 50% so it wasn't tha big of a blow.And Ice Age 4 had a fantastic hold.

[redfirebird2008]

Total Recall just fell off the grid. Bourne just killed it. TDKR still dropped well under 50% so it wasn't tha big of a blow.And Ice Age 4 had a fantastic hold.

Bourne didn't kill it. Recall's own WOM killed it.

[MovieMan89]

Wow, that is tragic for TR. I guess having 3 new openers this weekend that were all fairly appealing on top of the mediocre WOM just caused it to fall into the abyss.

[ecstasy]

Bourne didn't kill it. Recall's own WOM killed it.

LMAO you hate Bourne don't cha? Why may I ask?

[redfirebird2008]

LMAO you hate Bourne don't cha? Why may I ask?

I don't hate Bourne. I love the original three. In fact, I rated Supremacy and Ultimatum higher than any action movies of the last 20 years. I hate fucking cash grab sequels like this one. But that still doesn't change the fact that Recall's own WOM has a hell of a lot more to do with its drop than Bourne. Bourne didn't kill TDKR, so I'm not sure why it would kill an even newer release.