Bishop54 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Is Jurassic World a lock for $250M in China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Is Jurassic World a lock for $250M in China? No. Far from it actually. 200m will be a hopeful prediction I believe. I think its going to be huge but 250m, although slightly possible, is a little too much IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 So FF7 has another 10-15M to make in China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Is Jurassic World a lock for $250M in China? No. Far from it actually. 200m will be a hopeful prediction I believe. I think its going to be huge but 250m, although slightly possible, is a little too much IMO. Firedeep predicts 300 mill + Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop54 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 $300M+ for Jurassic World would make me very very happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 I guess then the early decisions to import Annie and Unbroken are paying off based on this calculation. That's a good guess of the movies being imported I should say...one of them might drop out in favor of "Pan," china film just signed to handle merchandising rights of that...which means, well, they have an incentive to import that movie now wouldn't they? Yes, it's possible that Pan gets imported. Hold on a sec, firedeep. One thing of note: you're assuming the Chinese films hold up the end of their bargain. I don't know enough of what's coming but seems the big guns are now trained mostly towards Chinese New Year 2016 and not December, right? Outside of Lost in Hongkong, what else is expected to break the bank there? As Lihongkim has mentioned of, LiHK, eyeing October holiday release, should be a 2B+ contender, Hollywood Adventures could do 1B+, July's Zhi Zi Hua Kai (栀子花开) from He Jiong could also be as big as 700m. Then you have The Ghouls, Fading Wave, Breakup Guru 2, Skiptrace ... in December. Sure, some of these could under-perform but in total, there are way more local films than imported ones, allowing the possibility of more unexpected local hits. Maybe not as big as Terminator, but other notable big local releases should include Tiny Times 4, Monster Hunt, The Wasted Time, The Hidden Heroine, Death Duel .... I am not sure Lu Chuan's Ghost Blows Out the Light could be ready this year though. Let's not start with those dozens of sub 200m ones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 Nothing is ever locked but I think JW could do $250m+. As for AoU, with a superb release route, I don't see anything less than $250m. In fact, some aggressive box office watchers are already paging close to $240m 6-days opening ..... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Nothing is ever locked but I think JW could do $250m+. As for AoU, with a superb release route, I don't see anything less than $250m. In fact, some aggressive box office watchers are already paging close to $240m 6-days opening ..... Whaaaaaaaaat? 240 mill american dollars in 6 days???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 (edited) Whaaaaaaaaat? 240 mill american dollars in 6 days???? Yeah, something like 1.5B yuan through Tue to Sun, including record-breaking Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri and Sat. FYI, I only have it at 1.2B 6-days... Pre-sales could be very missleading sometimes. Edited May 5, 2015 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Yeah, something like 1.5B yuan through Tue to Sun, including record-breaking Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri and Sat. FYI, I only have it at 1.2B 6-days... Pre-sales could be very missleading sometimes. That would be mind boggeling If it does 1.5B in the first 6 days i will do a naked dance and post somewhere on the internet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynosure Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 No way will FF7 keep the OS crown if it does that in China...Curses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 (edited) Still thinking AOU 6-day OW will be 1B yuan max, 900M range. Edit: TF4 OD was Friday and made 193M yuan, but 5000+ screens have been added since then and TA2 runtime is 25 minutes short.200M yuan OD for AOU will be out of world. Edited May 5, 2015 by Johnny Storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Yeah, something like 1.5B yuan through Tue to Sun, including record-breaking Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri and Sat. FYI, I only have it at 1.2B 6-days... Pre-sales could be very missleading sometimes. WHAAT!! I'd be happy with even 1B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 What sort of competition will AoU be facing? Could you post the major openers in AoU's first few weeks run and a rough prediction for their total gross? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 WHAAT!! I'd be happy with even 1B. Those people always over-predict a lot, they're the Chinese Neo's. What sort of competition will AoU be facing? Could you post the major openers in AoU's first few weeks run and a rough prediction for their total gross? None in its following 14 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Good news then! I think if it does open to 1B, then it could have a shot at 2B or at least 1.86B ($300m) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Good news then! I think if it does open to 1B, then it could have a shot at 2B or at least 1.86B ($300m) That would be outstanding! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alee7915 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Johnny, this for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Still thinking AOU 6-day OW will be 1B yuan max, 900M range. Edit: TF4 OD was Friday and made 193M yuan, but 5000+ screens have been added since then and TA2 runtime is 25 minutes short.200M yuan OD for AOU will be out of world. 32M OD, would that be a record? Is that a 150M+ 6-day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 Apparently, AOU has better release window than F7 had. Taking a look at the competitors of the two. F7: 10 days before release ---- Wolf Warriors + Let's Get Married = 800m+ 5 days after release -------- Ever Since We Love = 150m 12 days after release ------ The Left Ear + Home = 700m+ 18 days after release ------- Silent Separation + Helios = 600m 1.45B competition in total, not counting cannon fodders AOU: 4 days before release ---- Chappie < 150m 14 days after release ----- Tomorrow < 400m 21 days after release ------ SA < 500m 1.05B competition in total, not counting cannon fodders. F7 had that May holiday boost but even without the boost, it would still easily do 2.2B+. I think AOU can get 60%+ show count or 84k~90k screenings per day in release next week. (F7 got 65+% in first few days.) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
