China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Rudolf]

China is already bigger than Japan in big Hollywood blockbusters. How does the local production compare with the Japanese.?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

China is already bigger than Japan in big Hollywood blockbusters. How does the local production compare with the Japanese.?

Probably about the same.Local movies share about 50% in China.

[Rudolf]

Probably about the same.Local movies share about 50% in China.

so the only thing missing in China are the smaller Hollywood movies?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

so the only thing missing in China are the smaller Hollywood movies?

Sort of.But there are some major problems for HLW films in China:1, the amount of imported/released HLW films is limited, not to mention comdies and horror mivies could rarely get released. The new rule says as most as 34 foreign big movies can get released in China each year (from 2012), but the quota actually still is totally up to the Chinese government. 34 is just the theory, the max. The quota can be not fully used if you know what I mean. They can dismiss any release any time with any excuse, like when they say XFC is not suitable for China... WTF ? Another thing to note, even a film has passed the censorship system by SARFT, which is the first step of getting release for any film, it does not gurantee the release of the film. If a local movie wants the release date, the government will no doubt cancel the release of hollywood film.2, the promotion of HLW films is limited in China, no TV spots/TV trailers/TV adds are allowed; only outdoor/internet advertising is permitted.3, Very few HLW films can get date-to-date release, while most are delayed much long time. So they have to deal with piracy, which is big problem here.4, No foreign films can open during major holidays and December. This is the case since early 2010.5, Box office of almost every big hollywood films is getting underreported. This is the case since AVATAR. Some online analysis says Avatar got under reported by about 200M yuan, while others Inception(50M+ yuan), KFP2(100M yuan), TF3(200M yuan), Titanic 3D (150M yuan)...etc. Edited May 18, 2012 by firedeep

[SpiderByte]

I think it goes without saying Iron Man 3 is going to do pretty well in China now. Apparently a tabloid newspaper in China said it'd be filimng there, and the main villlain is the Mandarin, but that Marvel's going to film it so that it doesn't portray China as a villain, just that the villain has origins from there.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

China’s Wanda Group Agrees To Pay $2.6B For AMC Entertainment

[Robertron]

China’s Wanda Group Agrees To Pay $2.6B For AMC Entertainment

That's.... massive.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The trailer of MIB3 is broadcasting everywhere in the subway. Sony is really pushing it in China.I think 70M is very easy to reach for this. I probably will make my detail (weekly) predition later.

Edited May 21, 2012 by firedeep

[Robertron]

The trailer of MIB3 is broadcasting everywhere in the subway. Sony is really pushing it in China.I think 70M is very easy to reach for this. I probably will make my detail (weekly) predition later.

Same here. The song 'Back In Time' by Pitbull is being played every hour on the radio - huge publicity for Men In Black!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Firedeep, May 21th 21:30pm (GMT+8) updates:

(poster added May 25th 10pm GMT+8)

Men in Black 3 / May 21~27th Weekly Box Office Forecast

This Friday, May 25, comes with Will Smith's Men in Black 3. Will's star power was largely built in the late 1990s, especially by the two MIB films. However WS didnt have one single film on the big screen since Hancock in 2008. So is his star power still there? Can his latest filck live up to the ever expanding oversea markets ? Many wonders or doubts. Currently staying at 63% on Rottentomatoes.com, which is not a particularly high score but should be enough for a third installment that started almost 15 years ago, it seems MIB3 actually delivered after all.

Desipte no films released since 2008, Will Smith remains one of the top popular hollywood super star in China. Debuted that July 2th, Hancock collected more than 100M yuan in the Chinese theaters, ranking #5 among all the hollywood movies on the yearly chart. Will's other Chinese releases including Bad Boys(1995, 32.8M yuan, #5) and Enemy of the State (1999, 22M yuan, #4). Not too much WS movies released in China, but all of the released ones ranked the yearly top 5 hollywood films at the box office. If MIB3 can follow this trend, it has great chance of joining the $100M club, or at least should be very close to that mark.

And then how about the marketing of this film ? Sony and Mtime will co-hold its China premiere on 23th May and WS will attend. And the trailer is showing all days recently at the subways in Shanghai. Apparently Sony are really pushing it in China. How about the hype ? Well, still 3 more days to go until it hits the theatres, MIB3 has 12,000+ want to see on Mtime.com and 15,600+ want to see on Douban.com, which respectively are the top 2 movie sites in China. All we know is the figuress are not far-off to, if not higher than, Marvel's The Avengers at the same period of the time. So the marketing is good and the hype is massive, and all it needs is a big opening. However, there is still one little problem, Marvel's The Avengers, which, also coming in 3D, is just entering its third week of theatrical run. The Avengers smashed about 120M yuan(more accurate numbers available later today) last week with a cume of 450M yuan, according to recent reports. And it should still be able to do huge business this week, though a typical 50% weekly drop is expected with the arrival of MIB3. The same weekend of last year, POTC4 opened to about 145M, which is still the 3 days opening record in China. So does MIB3 have any chance of besting that ? The aneswer is yes we think. We first predicted 70M for the Will Smith movie a few days back when making the May forecast, and now with the reviews overall positive pulling in, we have no reason not to insist on that. So if it really did open to around 150M yuan. And with nearly no major competition until Madagascar 3 (June 8th), solid legs can be expected. Thus, a total of about 80M at the end of its run sounds reasonable.

So here is my final weekly(5.21~5.27) top 5 prediction:

1. Men in Black 3 150M yuan ($23.7M) New total: 150M yuan ($23.7M)

2. Marvel's The Avengers 60M yuan -50% ($9.5M) total: 510M yuan ($80.8M)

3. The Three Musketeers 7.5M yuan -70% ($1.18M) total: 32.5M yuan ($5.15M)

4. The Grey 9.6M yuan -40% ($1.5M) total: 25.6M yuan ($4.05M)

5. Titanic 3D 4.0M yuan -60% ($0.63M) total: 975M yuan ($154.5M)

Edited May 25, 2012 by firedeep

[Rudolf]

I thought TA was $69.3m after Sunday doing $17m for last week

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I thought TA was $69.3m after Sunday doing $17m for last week

That was what Disney reported Sunday midnight. The official Chinese report is about 120M ($19M) 7 days. Whole chart will be out Tuesday.

[Olive]

so professional!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

so professional!

I will do regular weekly/monthly forecast focused on big movies if available.

[Olive]

I will do regular weekly/monthly forecast focused on big movies if available.

Good job, buddy!

[wood melon]

Firedeep, May 21th 21:30pm (GMT+8) updates:

Men in Black 3 / May 21~27th Weekly Box Office Forecast

This Friday, May 25, comes with Will Smith's Men in Black 3. Will's star power was largely built in the late 1990s, especially by the two MIB films. However WS didnt have one single film on the big screen since Hancock in 2008. So is his star power still there? Can his latest filck live up to the ever expanding oversea markets ? Many wonders or doubts. Currently staying at 63% on Rottentomatoes.com, which is not a particularly high score but should be enough for a third installment that started almost 15 years ago, it seems MIB3 actually delivered after all.

Desipte no films released since 2008, Will Smith remains one of the top popular hollywood super star in China. Debuted that July 2th, Hancock collected more than 100M yuan in the Chinese theaters, ranking #5 among all the hollywood movies on the yearly chart. Will's other Chinese releases including Bad Boys(1995, 32.8M yuan, #5) and Enemy of the State (1999, 22M yuan, #4). Not too much WS movies released in China, but all of the released ones ranked the yearly top 5 hollywood films at the box office. If MIB3 can follow this trend, it has great chance of joining the $100M club, or at least should be very close to that mark.

And then how about the marketing of this film ? Sony and Mtime will co-hold its China premiere on 23th May and WS will attend. And the trailer is showing all days recently at the subways in Shanghai. Apparently Sony are really pushing it in China. How about the hype ? Well, still 3 more days to go until it hits the theatres, MIB3 has 12,000+ want to see on Mtime.com and 15,600+ want to see on Douban.com, which respectively are the top 2 movie sites in China. All we know is the figuress are not far-off to, if not higher than, Marvel's The Avengers at the same period of the time. So the marketing is good and the hype is massive, and all it needs is a big opening. However, there is still one little problem, Marvel's The Avengers, which, also coming in 3D, is just entering its third week of theatrical run. The Avengers smashed about 120M yuan(more accurate numbers available later today) last week with a cume of 450M yuan, according to recent reports. And it should still be able to do huge business this week, though a typical 50% weekly drop is expected with the arrival of MIB3. The same weekend of last year, POTC4 opened to about 145M, which is still the 3 days opening record in China. So does MIB3 have any chance of besting that ? The aneswer is yes we think. We first predicted 70M for the Will Smith movie a few days back when making the May forecast, and now with the reviews overall positive pulling in, we have no reason not to insist on that. So if it really did open to around 150M yuan. And with nearly no major competition until Madagascar 3 (June 8th), solid legs can be expected. Thus, a total of about 80M at the end of its run sounds reasonable.

So here is my final weekly(5.21~5.27) top 5 prediction:

1. Men in Black 3 150M yuan ($23.7M) New total: 150M yuan ($23.7M)

2. Marvel's The Avengers 60M yuan -50% ($9.5M) total: 510M yuan ($80.8M)

3. The Three Musketeers 7.5M yuan -70% ($1.18M) total: 32.5M yuan ($5.15M)

4. The Grey 9.6M yuan -40% ($1.5M) total: 25.6M yuan ($4.05M)

5. Titanic 3D 4.0M yuan -60% ($0.63M) total: 975M yuan ($154.5M)

the same number that i think about MIB3 will gross in China this weekend.

[Fake]

Go MIB......

[A Marvel Fanboy]

[druv10]

It went up quite a bit. Can TA hit 100M or it will finish in the 90's.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It went up quite a bit. Can TA hit 100M or it will finish in the 90's.

90M is possible. 100M was never the option.