China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Polaroids]

3 hours ago, firedeep said:

so Mermaid is actually not bad? here comes CNY holiday champion......

Here's another review - http://www.fmoviemag.com/mermaid-%E7%BE%8E%E4%BA%BA%E9%B1%BC-review/ One thing to keep in mind though is that these are local reviews in Malaysia and Singapore since the movie had early screenings there.

2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

That is great to hear. Potentially a film to challenge Monster Hunt's record after all.

I doubt it. Too much competition.

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Oops. Did not know. Not that I want to do a name change.

 

Anyway since Olive has picked it up, so let us see how things go. I see show count increasing in last hour. KFP3 is continuing at add at around 8% take rate. So its looking at around 9K shows at this point. That would be 4.5% of shows. 35m is impossible.

Presales on the move now at 36 hours out. More than doubled so far today. Most of it in the last 2 hours. At 4.6m 2% market share with 4.1% show share. The new releases will little more than double their PS. KFP3 will trip or quad PS putting MS at a minimum of 4%. However PS will continue to rise faster for KFP. (I keep thinking of chicken when I write that). 6% MS or more likely. Not sure what woke it up but if it keeps trending like this we will be talking about bigger number than 35m.

Olive, I think I will get some KFC with your 658 yuan. 

[FranMan]

1 hour ago, sgchn40 said:

 

Yeah. The second trailer is so serious

 

I was waiting for the punchline throughout it and that was it. In truth, it's hard to capture Chow's brand of humour or his sensibilities with a trailer.

53 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

Here's another review - http://www.fmoviemag.com/mermaid-%E7%BE%8E%E4%BA%BA%E9%B1%BC-review/ One thing to keep in mind though is that these are local reviews in Malaysia and Singapore since the movie had early screenings there.

 

I'm surprised Show Luo hasn't collaborated more with Chow. His style of comedy meshes so much with Chow's.

[Lihongkim]

5 minutes ago, FranMan said:

 

I was waiting for the punchline throughout it and that was it. In truth, it's hard to capture Chow's brand of humour or his sensibilities with a trailer.

 

I'm surprised Show Luo hasn't collaborated more with Chow. His style of comedy meshes so much with Chow's.

Show Luo, he is the reason why I become a die hard fan of Go Fighting. 

[FranMan]

3 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

Show Luo, he is the reason why I become a die hard fan of Go Fighting. 

 

I liked him since his  娛樂百分百 days. Think he's a great entertainer and all rounder.

[Olive]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

Presales on the move now at 36 hours out. More than doubled so far today. Most of it in the last 2 hours. At 4.6m 2% market share with 4.1% show share. The new releases will little more than double their PS. KFP3 will trip or quad PS putting MS at a minimum of 4%. However PS will continue to rise faster for KFP. (I keep thinking of chicken when I write that). 6% MS or more likely. Not sure what woke it up but if it keeps trending like this we will be talking about bigger number than 35m.

Olive, I think I will get some KFC with your 658 yuan. 

Only bet for one month, $10(66 yuan)

[keysersoze123]

mfantin that you will miss the math and send him 660 yuan instead of 66. after all its just another zero.

[POTUS 2020]

26 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

Only bet for one month, $10(66 yuan)

 

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

mfantin that you will miss the math and send him 660 yuan instead of 66. after all its just another zero.

Forgot the decimal. 65.8 Yuan 

 

PS 5M

PS 12-15m Tomorrow nite

Monday 40-60m chicken

Edited February 6, 2016 by No Prisoners

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

Presales on the move now at 36 hours out. More than doubled so far today. Most of it in the last 2 hours. At 4.6m 2% market share with 4.1% show share. The new releases will little more than double their PS. KFP3 will trip or quad PS putting MS at a minimum of 4%. However PS will continue to rise faster for KFP. (I keep thinking of chicken when I write that). 6% MS or more likely. Not sure what woke it up but if it keeps trending like this we will be talking about bigger number than 35m.

Olive, I think I will get some KFC with your 658 yuan. 

 

90% of shows are booked and its at 4.1%. As I said take rate is 8%. it will finish around 4.5%. No way its gonna have bigger BO share than show count. Not with small screens and evening show share is even less( 2.9%). Smaller screens will have 100-120 seats and with 9000 shows it will have around million tickets it has only 40m yuan worth of tickets to sell. It would be lucky to see 50% of that. So sub 20m is highly likely.

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

90% of shows are booked and its at 4.1%. As I said take rate is 8%. it will finish around 4.5%. No way its gonna have bigger BO share than show count. Not with small screens and evening show share is even less( 2.9%). Smaller screens will have 100-120 seats and with 9000 shows it will have around million tickets it has only 40m yuan worth of tickets to sell. It would be lucky to see 50% of that. So sub 20m is highly likely.

 

 

Take rate will rise tomorrow

Are you saying 90% booked based on last week? They can always squeeze more in.

70m children within theater distance from the age of 3-10 plus parents. Other movies skewing older. They'll sell the houses out!

That 4th opener underperforming in PS. It will take its share.

Edited February 6, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

…Monkey king targets children.

[POTUS 2020]

29 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

…Monkey king targets children.

OK 6m children will see that. 64m left.

They built 6000 theaters last year. Safe to assume there are 120 new theaters opening this week. More shows available. 

[Olive]

Well most Children love Sun Wukong more than Po, Why don't they see It on the first day of Year of Monkey.

[keysersoze123]

mfantin's projections for saturday was already way off. Now he is predicting sub 50% drop tomorrow despite theaters closing early. Probably will drop 60% tomorrow. Even on saturday it dropped a bit from yesterday which was surprising.

[Fake]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

mfantin's projections for saturday was already way off. Now he is predicting sub 50% drop tomorrow despite theaters closing early. Probably will drop 60% tomorrow. Even on saturday it dropped a bit from yesterday which was surprising.

Actually, it wasn't surprising at all.

 

Last time New Year fell on a Monday was 2012.

 

Total daily grosses for previous days:

 

THU: 40.67M

FRI: 41.17M (+1%)

SAT: 36.62M (-11%)

SUN: 12.32M (-66%)

 

This was roughly the trend KFP3 followed (though a smaller drop on Saturday).

 

I won't be surprised if KFP3 drops to 15M tomorrow.

[sgchn40]

How much is your prediction for this Chinese New Year holiday compared to last year? 

 

Last year (19th to 24th Feb) was ¥1.73b or $276.4m, which was a 24% increase from 2014. Would we see a 30% jump this time with MK2 and Mermaid?

[POTUS 2020]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

mfantin's projections for saturday was already way off. Now he is predicting sub 50% drop tomorrow despite theaters closing early. Probably will drop 60% tomorrow. Even on saturday it dropped a bit from yesterday which was surprising.

I said I wasn't sure how Saturday would play out. Olive also thought 70m for Saturday earlier in the week. Pre-sales are down 45% for tomorrow not 60% like we thought.But Saturday and Sunday are not of importance for the rest of the run. Monday is.

TMK did 62m with 14.7 MS and SS . That was just a summer saturday that did 425m.

Monday is an event day. Seat saturation will run higher. There are 10% more theaters. They will squeeze in more shows than that weekend. It's already at 4.2% SS so 5%+ should happen

 Monkey vs Panda and chicken....

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Fake said:

Actually, it wasn't surprising at all.

 

Last time New Year fell on a Monday was 2012.

 

Total daily grosses for previous days:

 

THU: 40.67M

FRI: 41.17M (+1%)

SAT: 36.62M (-11%)

SUN: 12.32M (-66%)

 

This was roughly the trend KFP3 followed (though a smaller drop on Saturday).

 

I won't be surprised if KFP3 drops to 15M tomorrow.

 

I did not look that long back. So that makes sense. I agree with 15m for sunday as well. I dont know how its gonna increase from sunday with 1/3 the shows. Even with early close KFP3 has 30k+ shows for tomorrow. weird that it has only 9.4% attendance.

[POTUS 2020]

21 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

How much is your prediction for this Chinese New Year holiday compared to last year? 

 

Last year (19th to 24th Feb) was ¥1.73b or $276.4m, which was a 24% increase from 2014. Would we see a 30% jump this time with MK2 and Mermaid?

Last year opened to 360m and hovered close to 300m for the next 5 days.

It's definitely going to open over 500m.  The same pattern would be 4.8x OD. If it's 600m then 2.88B would happen if none of the movies collapse due BWOM. 

That's not a projection @keysersoze123 jjust an example. 

[jiangsen]

Saturday Estimates

Kung Fu Panda 3: 41.8M/665M

Guo Nian Hao: 5.9M/44.35M

Alvin 4: 3.97M/58.32M

Star Wars TFA: 3.4M/823M

Boonie Bears III: 2.73M/274M

Detective Chinatown: 2.23M/822M