A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Olive said: Ip Man 3 presales picked up, 100M yuan OD looks likely. I think $50M OW is on the way. Zootopia still disappoints, 50-60M yuan OW at best, the best case is 250M(half of BH6) ,with no holiday ahead, 200M is not certain. I think 200m total for Z is always locked, no matter how disappointing the opening is. I dare to say 400m is the floor for it. It's an original animation, so presale doesn't matter. great WOM will do the work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 40 minutes ago, sgchn40 said: Agree! The funny thing is that they wanted soft power. Well the banned shows ironically was chased after by many people outside of China. They just killed one of their sources of soft power I think they are letting K-drama (or other...) to dominate Asia entertainment. As a die-hard fan of Chinese drama, I'm so disappointed. Why just they let it go & become the most powerful entertainer in Asia (or worldwide)? Can't think of what's the communist thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Olive said: Mermaid will have another 3-month extended run... I dont get these extended runs if they don't have any screens and are only making peanuts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 1 hour ago, firedeep said: I think 200m total for Z is always locked, no matter how disappointing the opening is. I dare to say 400m is the floor for it. It's an original animation, so presale doesn't matter. great WOM will do the work. I think Zootopia picked a bad release. Disney is too obessed over day and date release. If it open in mid April, its quite empty as of the schedule right now and the WOM from other Asian countries can shine through by then. Maybe opening day 25% to 30% showtimes. Piracy won't affect much since Chinese wants to watch it in Mandarin. Coming out against Ip Man 3... is not a smart movie, at least move it to March 11th against the bad WOM Gods of Eygpt. Don't Disney know Ip Man 2 beat Iron Man 2 in 2010? And i think Zootopia's release is too close to KFP3, since KFP3 is still showing in limited theaters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, TigerPaw said: I think Zootopia picked a bad release. Disney is too obessed over day and date release. If it open in mid April, its quite empty as of the schedule right now and the WOM from other Asian countries can shine through by then. Maybe opening day 25% to 30% showtimes. Piracy won't affect much since Chinese wants to watch it in Mandarin. Coming out against Ip Man 3... is not a smart movie, at least move it to March 11th against the bad WOM Gods of Eygpt. Don't Disney know Ip Man 2 beat Iron Man 2 in 2010? And i think Zootopia's release is too close to KFP3, since KFP3 is still showing in limited theaters. It would turn out another KFP3...The local movies will kill it 2 weeks later 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 So many Hollywood Films yet nothing seems to be really set on April. Weird, Jungle Book still not confirmed? London has Fallen too... April seems pretty dead... What is the multiplier like for a weekday opening (Friday)? Eg Presales of Zootopia is 5m yuan, so can we expect a 3 to 4x multiplier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 37 minutes ago, TigerPaw said: So many Hollywood Films yet nothing seems to be really set on April. Weird, Jungle Book still not confirmed? London has Fallen too... April seems pretty dead... What is the multiplier like for a weekday opening (Friday)? Eg Presales of Zootopia is 5m yuan, so can we expect a 3 to 4x multiplier? Why so odd?!?! They have given up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 3 hours ago, Lihongkim said: I think they are letting K-drama (or other...) to dominate Asia entertainment. As a die-hard fan of Chinese drama, I'm so disappointed. Why just they let it go & become the most powerful entertainer in Asia (or worldwide)? Can't think of what's the communist thinking. They probably think it is more important to build a "harmonious" society than to become the leading entertainment hub. But seriously, they NEED to seriously consider a rating system for TV and movie for the industry to flourish. Otherwise it is all children show and anti-Japanese occupation movie. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Thursday est Mermaid 16.6M/3229M TMK2 6M/1185M IPM3 5M midnights Macau 3:4.7m/1110m Crouching Tiger:3.9M/254M KFP3:1.55M/982M 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaroids Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 4 hours ago, Lihongkim said: China wanna be new hollywood, but look at what they're doing? They're digging their own grave. Even a normal thing was banned. It's so fucking ridiculous. No wonder why there are so many historical/period & wuxia dramas were produced every year. Nothing else productions can do. Hide contents Ice Fantasy has reincarnation. Would it be banned? Damn!!! it's my most waiting drama 2016. I gonna die. Don't know how can I live without those banning dramas? I would be looking forward to that if Feng Shaofeng and Victoria Song weren't cast as leads.. I guess I'll wait for the movie version now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Presales for Ip Man 3 on Maoyan reached 44m Yuan. 100M Yuan OD seems very likely, may reach up to 130m Yuan OD. =) Might hit a 350 to 400M Yuan OW, depending on WOM, Gewara Score is at 8.6 now (it was 8.2 this morning). Wonder how much impact Bluray HK release(10th March) will do to it next week! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash Skywalker Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 BvS is opening how many days before the Qingming Festival? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 15 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said: BvS is opening how many days before the Qingming Festival? 9 Days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash Skywalker Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 (edited) 21 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: 9 Days. So does it have a chance getting the same fate as KFP3. I know the competition BvS face aren't that big like Chineese trio released during New year but.... i'm skeptical Edited March 3, 2016 by Ash Skywalker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 57 minutes ago, Olive said: Thursday est Mermaid 16.6M/3229M TMK2 6M/1185M IPM3 5M midnights Macau 3:4.7m/1110m Crouching Tiger:3.9M/254M KFP3:1.55M/982M looking at screen count everything but mermaid is almost done. TMK2 should crawl to 1.2B while Macau 3 and KFP3 are almost done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said: So does it have a chance getting the same fate as KFP3. I know the competition BvS face aren't that big like Chineese trio released during New year but.... i'm skeptical 3 notable local movies opening pre- Qingming weekend. Chongqing Hot Pot The Bodyguard Who sleeps My bro CHP may make over 100M USD, the other two won't be that big, maybe 300-400M yuan each. But BVS may lose quite a lot screens if it's frontloaded. Edited March 3, 2016 by Olive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash Skywalker Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Olive said: 3 notable local movies opening pre- Qingming weekend. Chongqing Hot Pot The Bodyguard Who sleeps My bro CHP may make over 100M USD, the other two won't be that big, maybe 300-400M yuan each. But BVS may lose quite a lot screens if it's frontloaded. Yes that's what i'm afraid. Even a good movie can't do anything without the good amount of screens. If KFP3 has good amount of screens after those three released it may have pulled some good amount of money. But still as you ppl said KFP3 would have done more if it's released on the new year. The chances are that being front loaded are more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Presales Friday 00:00 IPM3:44.46M Zootopia:4.89M Mermaid:2.11M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 26 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said: Yes that's what i'm afraid. Even a good movie can't do anything without the good amount of screens. If KFP3 has good amount of screens after those three released it may have pulled some good amount of money. But still as you ppl said KFP3 would have done more if it's released on the new year. The chances are that being front loaded are more likely. Those 3 movies are not as big as your 3 CNY huge budgeted productions. As long as BvS does well in opening week and WOM doesn't fall off, it should maintain at least 20percent showtimes. Of that 3 films, i foresee 2 of them grossing less than 300m Yuan, not the 1.1 billion yuan minimum for those CNY releases. In terms of showtimes, BvS may be 2nd during the Qingming weekend, so definitely not as low as KFP3. Issue with KFP3 is that it came out on a dead weekend where everyone is travelling home, did below expectations hence showtimes were harshly cut. As long as BvS's WOM stays, it will do very well. I did mention in that Release Date thread that i would prefer BvS to open on 1st April instead but end March isn't bad. I am actually more upset about Revenant suddenly squeezing into MAR 18 to take adv of the Oscar Best Actor win. The oscar win trended very well on Weibo and if Revenant explodes... BvS's opening showtimes is not as high as expected resulting in dissapointing numbers then the showtimes cut in April will be significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash Skywalker Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 36 minutes ago, TigerPaw said: Those 3 movies are not as big as your 3 CNY huge budgeted productions. As long as BvS does well in opening week and WOM doesn't fall off, it should maintain at least 20percent showtimes. Of that 3 films, i foresee 2 of them grossing less than 300m Yuan, not the 1.1 billion yuan minimum for those CNY releases. In terms of showtimes, BvS may be 2nd during the Qingming weekend, so definitely not as low as KFP3. Issue with KFP3 is that it came out on a dead weekend where everyone is travelling home, did below expectations hence showtimes were harshly cut. As long as BvS's WOM stays, it will do very well. I did mention in that Release Date thread that i would prefer BvS to open on 1st April instead but end March isn't bad. I am actually more upset about Revenant suddenly squeezing into MAR 18 to take adv of the Oscar Best Actor win. The oscar win trended very well on Weibo and if Revenant explodes... BvS's opening showtimes is not as high as expected resulting in dissapointing numbers then the showtimes cut in April will be significant. 1.I know and yes Olive mentioned it too. I fort to mention that in the reply. 2. I hope that doesn't happen. Is there any chance now BvS getting a April 1st release or after the release of the Revenant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
