China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[A Marvel Fanboy]

TDKR will be released on 74 digital IMAX screens (sharing with TASM) and 4 real IMAX screens in China.

[fmpro]

TDKR will be released on 74 digital IMAX screens (sharing with TASM) and 4 real IMAX screens in China.

Any presale numbers?

[vc2002]

Did you ever visit Prometheus's page on Mtime or read the comments to news about the movie ? Not many movies can get as many attentions/anticipations PROM has got. Here again, you are underestimating the population of the Aliens films in China by saying "Prometheus doesnt have a subject appearing to the Chinse audience in the first place".

On Mtime it says 5333 people wanting to see it & 1408 people rated it already, and the figures for TDKR are 10748 & 5102.

I see very poor buzz on this film. The Alien franchise is rather un-known in China, and you can even tell on their Mtime or Douban pages. Like I did on Tintin, I even asked a few people around me (some mid-30 males), and only one of them said he had a very rough memory about some alien-creature film.

You can simply try to release TDKR with TA on the same day in July in North America, adding PROM 6 days later and TE2 4 days later, and see what happens. This is the nightmare no one/box office geek could ever imagine.

Yes, people will be lining for what they want to see but what if they no longer can line up ? Most GA will have to make a choice between TDKR and TASM even though they want to check out both. And under the shadows of the giant two, relatively less appealing PROM, TR and TBL will totally BOMB. Mad 3 and THG wont do 400M yuan combined if they got dates of PROM OR TBL, probably 100M for each if not worse.

The US market is fully developed, so we know there's a limit to its potential (which apperantly would be Avatar's admissions ATM). But China is in the process of explosion, and the market is now big enough to consistantly generate breakouts, and certainly enough for a 2D and a 3D to co-exist and both have great results.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

On Mtime it says 5333 people wanting to see it & 1408 people rated it already, and the figures for TDKR are 10748 & 5102.

I see very poor buzz on this film. The Alien franchise is rather un-known in China, and you can even tell on their Mtime or Douban pages. Like I did on Tintin, I even asked a few people around me (some mid-30 males), and only one of them said he had a very rough memory about some alien-creature film.

Wrong. Alien films are one of most populate classic series in China. There is an Alien baidu tieba and it is quite an active one, especially considering the film is 30 years old.

The US market is fully developed, so we know there's a limit to its potential (which apperantly would be Avatar's admissions ATM). But China is in the process of explosion, and the market is now big enough to consistantly generate breakouts, and certainly enough for a 2D and a 3D to co-exist and both have great results.

So wrong. If, even a fully developed market like US cant not support 3 big movies one time. How the hell a massive frontloading undeveloped market like China can ? TDKR/TASM or TA on same day in NA will see much much lower opening but great legs could still happen. But in China or Russia, sorry but no legs at all. Movies always die very soon.

And What is worse is there not only all about 2D's TDKR and 3D's TASM but also 2D's TE2 and 3D's PROM right followed closely. Yet you still see "great results" ? I dunno how...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

On Mtime it says 5333 people wanting to see it & 1408 people rated it already, and the figures for TDKR are 10748 & 5102.

You want to compare hype with TDKR ? No movie gonna win TDKR on buzz.

http://www.mtime.com/top/movie/anticipate/

PROM is the third on chart, even ahead of TH.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Any presale numbers?

Not yet.But yesterday one theater in Changchun, a big city in Northeast China, sold 50 tickets for TASM after presale begun in 30 minutes .

[vc2002]

Wrong. Alien films are one of most populate classic series in China. There is an Alien baidu tieba and it is quite an active one, especially considering the film is 30 years old.

There's an active Alien baidu tieba, so it's one of the most popular? There is a difference between "having its fans" and "being popular". Also there's a difference between some internet tieba and real life. I trust what I learned from real life, and in real life I found it not exactly that well-known. This method worked on Tintin and I'm sure it will continue to work on Prometheus, at least for my predictions. This film will not act like a prequel to "one of most populate classic series in China". It will earn its money by its own.

BTW, even on the internet, when you look at much more reliable sites like Mtime and Douban, you can still get to the point that it's not that popular.

So wrong. If, even a fully developed market like US cant not support 3 big movies one time. How the hell a massive frontloading undeveloped market like China can ? TDKR/TASM or TA on same day in NA will see much much lower opening but great legs could still happen. But in China or Russia, sorry but no legs at all. Movies always die very soon.

And What is worse is there not only all about 2D's TDKR and 3D's TASM but also 2D's TE2 and 3D's PROM right followed closely. Yet you still see "great results" ? I dunno how...

Because China is a fast developing market, that's why. Fast developing means its potential isnt like what we normally understand in developed market. Avatar is a great example. It didnt even come close to the DOM admission record, yet it broke the record in China, and not just broke it, but crushed it. So where's the "if it cant do it there, how can it do here?" question? No one is gonna ask that, because that's what a fast developing market is supposed to be. It's supposed to generate something that we wont be expecting in fully developed market. Edited August 16, 2012 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

VC, tired of these endless arguing I am. -_-What is your high end predictions for these movies in China ?Lets see what you got.

[vc2002]

Like I said, TA set the maximum of what a SH film could do ATM in China. TDKR had the best chance of matching it, but the lousy schedule obviously killed it. I predicted 70m and I will stay with it.TASM 50m.Prometheus is a toast in the first place. Bad schedule or not, it's not gonna be another JC. I dont see a lot of promotion here neither. 25m.TBL actually can do solid business as the franchise was a well-know brand and could be considered as a smaller MI, but since its most connecting star wasn't even in it, plus its poor reviews in the US, I dont have too much hope on it. Maybe 20m.TE2 50m

[Ozymandias]

Don't the chinese really dig science fiction? But I'm not ruling out 25m for Prometheus because of that ridiculous release schedule.

[keysersoze123]

Like I said, TA set the maximum of what a SH film could do ATM in China. TDKR had the best chance of matching it, but the lousy schedule obviously killed it. I predicted 70m and I will stay with it.TASM 50m.Prometheus is a toast in the first place. Bad schedule or not, it's not gonna be another JC. I dont see a lot of promotion here neither. 25m.TBL actually can do solid business as the franchise was a well-know brand and could be considered as a smaller MI, but since its most connecting star wasn't even in it, plus its poor reviews in the US, I dont have too much hope on it. Maybe 20m.TE2 50m

Those numbers look good to me.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Don't the chinese really dig science fiction? But I'm not ruling out 25m for Prometheus because of that ridiculous release schedule.

Yes, we do. Even shitty Skyline did more than 10M two years ago. Source code also did solid numbers.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Those numbers look good to me.

Hmm, good but depending on how you look at it. Obviously they all could do much better than these numbers if not for the actual schedule.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Like I said, TA set the maximum of what a SH film could do ATM in China. TDKR had the best chance of matching it, but the lousy schedule obviously killed it. I predicted 70m and I will stay with it.

I still see 100M for TDKR.

TASM 50m.

80M for Spidey.

Prometheus is a toast in the first place. Bad schedule or not, it's not gonna be another JC. I dont see a lot of promotion here neither. 25m. (Make it more than 30M)

TBL actually can do solid business as the franchise was a well-know brand and could be considered as a smaller MI, but since its most connecting star wasn't even in it, plus its poor reviews in the US, I dont have too much hope on it. Maybe 20m.

TE2 50m (More than that)

End

[fmpro]

Not yet.But yesterday one theater in Changchun, a big city in Northeast China, sold 50 tickets for TASM after presale begun in 30 minutes .

Thats nice... I hope for great numbers

[fmpro]

Like I said, TA set the maximum of what a SH film could do ATM in China. TDKR had the best chance of matching it, but the lousy schedule obviously killed it. I predicted 70m and I will stay with it.TASM 50m.Prometheus is a toast in the first place. Bad schedule or not, it's not gonna be another JC. I dont see a lot of promotion here neither. 25m.TBL actually can do solid business as the franchise was a well-know brand and could be considered as a smaller MI, but since its most connecting star wasn't even in it, plus its poor reviews in the US, I dont have too much hope on it. Maybe 20m.TE2 50m

TASM will do a few dollars more than 50 mill :)You know that

[vc2002]

Don't the chinese really dig science fiction? But I'm not ruling out 25m for Prometheus because of that ridiculous release schedule.

Chinese dont DIG sci-fi. Chinese love big spectacle effects. Sci-fi's tend to have that, that's why usually we love them, which is why bullshit like Battle LA did solid business. Prometheus lacks those spectacles. Also sci-fi horror never sold well. Check the first page, "ALL TIME HOLLYWOOD RELEASEes", there are a lot of sci-fi's there but you dont see a god damn horror at all. Edited August 16, 2012 by vc2002

[vc2002]

TASM will do a few dollars more than 50 mill :)You know that

How about the fact that the government might steal a couple of million dollars like they usually do?

[Rudolf]

Chinese dont DIG sci-fi. Chinese love big spectacle effects. Sci-fi's tend to have that, that's why usually we love them, which is why bullshit like Battle LA did solid business. Prometheus lacks those spectacles. Also sci-fi horror never sold well. Check the first page, "ALL TIME HOLLYWOOD RELEASEes", there are a lot of sci-fi's there but you dont see a god damn horror at all.

Chinese dont DIG sci-fi. Chinese love big spectacle effects. Sci-fi's tend to have that, that's why usually we love them, which is why bullshit like Battle LA did solid business. Prometheus lacks those spectacles. Also sci-fi horror never sold well. Check the first page, "ALL TIME HOLLYWOOD RELEASEes", there are a lot of sci-fi's there but you dont see a god damn horror at all.

Resident Evil?

[Ozymandias]

Chinese dont DIG sci-fi. Chinese love big spectacle effects. Sci-fi's tend to have that, that's why usually we love them, which is why bullshit like Battle LA did solid business. Prometheus lacks those spectacles. Also sci-fi horror never sold well. Check the first page, "ALL TIME HOLLYWOOD RELEASEes", there are a lot of sci-fi's there but you dont see a god damn horror at all.

lolwut? Prometheus is arguably the best looking film since Avatar. The visuals, CGI, sets, and cinematography are all top notch. Academy nominations in some of those areas are locks.

And Battle LA had god awful CGI...