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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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vc2002 Summer Tentpole

vc2002

Posted
Posted (edited)

$1 billiona in China? Let's not get ahead of ourselves.China is an exploding market, but it's also an immature market. When mega-films like Avatar and TF3 came, they took over two thirds of the screens, and they dominated over weeks because of the lack of the competition.The volume of the market is growing fast, but it's also becoming more open and mature, and if a few years later we have like 10 times more screens, we're not gonna see a film taking over half of the screens and facing little competition. It's gonna be a lot of competition, and a lot of options for the audience.This is not saying films like Avatar 2 and TF4 won't make monstrous performance. We just need to understand China is not gonna maintain the growing speed when the market is several times bigger and more open, and their boxoffice will not perform in the way the previous films broke out.

Edited by vc2002
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Bluebomb Box Office Gold

Bluebomb

Posted
Posted

$1 billiona in China? Let's not get ahead of ourselves.China is an exploding market, but it's also an immature market. When mega-films like Avatar and TF3 came, they took over two thirds of the screens, and they dominated over weeks because of the lack of the competition.The volume of the market is growing fast, but it's also becoming more open and mature, and if a few years later we have like 10 times more screens, we're not gonna see a film taking over half of the screens and facing little competition. It's gonna be a lot of competition, and a lot of options for the audience.This is not saying films like Avatar 2 and TF4 won't make monstrous performance. We just need to understand China is not gonna maintain the growing speed when the market is several times bigger and more open, and their boxoffice will not perform in the way the previous films broke out.

Well, in the immediate future, there are only 34 Hollywood releases allowed each year. With 10x more screens and 34 Hollywood releases, China will become a opening-heavy market. It is feasible that those big blockbuster movies can do insane OWs instead of having leggy runs. Avatar 2 could do 100m on OW, for example.
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SentryTrans Box Office Gold

SentryTrans

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Well, in the immediate future, there are only 34 Hollywood releases allowed each year. With 10x more screens and 34 Hollywood releases, China will become a opening-heavy market. It is feasible that those big blockbuster movies can do insane OWs instead of having leggy runs. Avatar 2 could do 100m on OW, for example.

Only 100m on OW?It should be about 150m-200m.
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SentryTrans Box Office Gold

SentryTrans

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I am very conservative with my predictions. But yeah, 150m-200m is very possible.

TF3 made about 62m Opening Week. There were about 8,000 screens(about 4000 3D screens) in July 2011, including about 30 IMAX screens.If Avatar 2 would be released in 2015, there would be about 60,000 screens in the end of 2015, including 800 IMAX screens.Who would knows Avatar 2's OW now? Edited by SentryTrans
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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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MI4 is still doing healthy weekend numbers. What's he all time top 4? Any chance climbing one spot higher?

All time top 5: In ¥, it's Avatar, TF3, two local movies and MI4.In $, MI4 now is third highest, right behind Avatar and TF3.First page (#1) updated, you can check it out.
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Cedarpoint1111 Summer Tentpole

Cedarpoint1111

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TF3 made about 62m Opening Week. There were about 8,000 screens(about 4000 3D screens) in July 2011, including about 30 IMAX screens.If Avatar 2 would be released in 2015, there would be about 60,000 screens in the end of 2015, including 800 IMAX screens.Who would knows Avatar 2's OW now?

From 8,000 screens to 60,000???
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