Olive Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 It did not beat UK OW on OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 (edited) Obviously IM3 OD hugely inflated by holiday opening and delayed-demand. It was just like a ferocious volcanic eruption. Silent come quick gone. The Thursday drop already confirms that. $150M from China is not happening. Even $130M is not certain, though very likely to be where it will end, at the moment. Had it opened on Apr 29, it probably would not break any record. But it would likely do 200M yuan more from 29th and 30th combined, based on its May 1 performance. Most holiday audience turned to So Young when IM3 was not around. That is to say, the compaign from So Young caused some 200M yuan loss for IM3 at the box office. $150M for IM3 would have been well locked had it opened 29th. Still, record is a record, better than nothing. You see how IM3 smashes on its opening day, you know why (pre-)holiday openings for Hollywood big movies are rarely allowed by SARFT. However I believe IM3 will behave more like a weekend movie, like most Hollywood movies. One big general difference between Hollywood movies and local movies at the China box office: the former weak workdays strong weekends, the latter good workdays weaker weekeneds. We will have a clear picture about where exactly IM3 will finish with by next Monday. Edited May 2, 2013 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCS Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 It did not beat UK OW on OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 FANTASTIC OPENING DAY!How much we are looking fir 5-day? 300m shouldn't be a problem, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 FANTASTIC OPENING DAY!How much we are looking fir 5-day? 300m shouldn't be a problem, right? 320m at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Bennett Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Honestly, the movie wasn't that impressive...The first time I watched its trailer I thought the movie was going to be more serious and mind-blowing with Mandarin pushing Tony Stark to the edge one way or another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Yep, the trailer is misleading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Perfectly misleading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robertron Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Yep, the trailer is misleading.Yeh, I think it's very misleading. It's nowhere near as good as the movie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 So, Midnights 12.4M yuan; OD 121M. Still, both are new records respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POLYLOVE Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 It seems today IM3 is holding well, looks 55% drop from OD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POLYLOVE Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Obviously IM3 OD hugely inflated by holiday opening and delayed-demand. It was just like a ferocious volcanic eruption. Silent come quick gone. The Thursday drop already confirms that. $150M from China is not happening. Even $130M is not certain, though very likely to be where it will end, at the moment. Had it opened on Apr 29, it probably would not break any record. But it would likely do 200M yuan more from 29th and 30th combined, based on its May 1 performance. Most holiday audience turned to So Young when IM3 was not around. That is to say, the compaign from So Young caused some 200M yuan loss for IM3 at the box office. $150M for IM3 would have been well locked had it opened 29th. Still, record is a record, better than nothing. You see how IM3 smashes on its opening day, you know why (pre-)holiday openings for Hollywood big movies are rarely allowed by SARFT. However I believe IM3 will behave more like a weekend movie, like most Hollywood movies. One big general difference between Hollywood movies and local movies at the China box office: the former weak workdays strong weekends, the latter good workdays weaker weekeneds. We will have a clear picture about where exactly IM3 will finish with by next Monday. Agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 (edited) It seems today IM3 is holding well, looks 55% drop from OD. Lol Firedeep and Fake have like Bi Polar or something... They either say the movie is smashing all record then one bad sign they are chicken little Nonetheless, I love the numbers they provide. Also whats the actual numer 19.5 or 21.1? Edited May 2, 2013 by Lordmandeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Lol Firedeep and Fake have like Bi Polar or something... They either say the movie is smashing all record then one bad sign they are chicken little Nonetheless, I love the numbers they provide. Also whats the actual numer 19.5 or 21.1? 21.5: http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2013-05-01-china-iron-man-3-sets-new-record-for-midnight-shows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 UPDATE & Analysis: IM3 VS SY Based on early estimates, here is what Thursday numbers looks like: [*]IM3 52M -57% (there is possibility that actuals falls to 50M) [*]So Young 26M -34% [*]Croods 5M -69% Normal drop fro Croods from a holiday to a working day. After 12 days, its cume gross stands at 186M $30M, already edging past KFP2 to become the biggest non-sequel animation in China. Fantastic hold for So Young. After 6 days run, its cume sits around 345M yuan. Should reach 470M by this Sunday (11 days total). With 50% weekly drop from there, it could finish its run with no less than 730M+ yuan, maybe even pushed to $120M. Good enough to give IM3 a close run. So Young is like one of the most commercially successful local movies one could ever make. First directorial debut from a top actress, Low budget, huge media buzz, huge returns. The marketing for it sure is a bit disgusting, but you cant deny its huge numbers. Then how about that daily drop for IM3 ? It is actually better than the Sun-Mon drop of TA (-66%), though Monday was TA's 3rd day, not 2nd one. In term of percentage, that IM3 2nd day drop (-57%) is by no means the biggest one (Local ROM-COM Holding Love dropped 80% off its Tanabata Day debut last summer). However, in term of gross, IM3's OD-2nd day decrease (68M) is the biggest day-to-day one ever, by a large margin, greatly exceeding that Sun-Mon one of Titanic 3D (former record, 92m-36M, 56m, -60%). The previous record before Titanic 3D was TF3 Sun-Mon decrease (99m-49M, 50m, -50%). With the estimated 52M Wednesday number, this is possibly what IM3 will do through the weekend: [*]Wed 121M [*]Thu 52M -57% [*] [*]Fri +15% 60m [*]Sat +66% 99m [*]Sun -20% 80m 412m $66.5m 5 days opening. However, if the Wed number turns out to be just at 50M, then IM3 could struggle its way to 400M $64M opening. Then what about next ? Well, considering there will be at least one big opener every weekend from next week, lets just take a -55~57% weekly drop for the next 4 weeks of its run. You will get 720M ~740M $115~118M total. Exactly like I said, it is still unclear which one of So Young and IM3 will do more in total at the moment. Really a close horse run. And if either one of the two doesnot performance conspicuously well or bad over the next few days, we probably wont know the match result until the end of their run. That will be the middle of June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 21.5: http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2013-05-01-china-iron-man-3-sets-new-record-for-midnight-shows Wrong. OD is 121M yuan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 64 million 5-day ??????????? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Wrong. OD is 121M yuan. That's what boxoffice.com posted. It might be wrong tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/iron-man-3-21-5m-in-china-breaks-all-opening-day-records-263-6m-international-total-without-may-day-yet-u-s-canada-165m-180m-debut-expected-this-weekend/ The 21.5 figure is on Deadline too and both article say that the number is confirmed by Disney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 I would be happy with $60M! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...