China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

		TF4								FF7
Day	Daily	% Change	% BO -OW	Total	$ Tot		Daily	% Change	TF4 vs FF7	Total	$ Tot	TF4 Day Mltplier	Day xM +OW	$ Proj
Fri	195			195
Sat	223	14.4%		418			51	- MN
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103		347		63.14%	398	64
Mon	123	-42.1%	9.07	754	124		184	-47.0%	49.47%	582	94	11.03	2,421	390
Tues	112	-8.9%	8.25	866	142		167	-9.2%	48.84%	749	121	12.12	2,416	389
Wed	95	-15.7%	6.97	961	157		137	-18.0%	44.82%	886	143	14.35	2,358	380
Thur	84	-11.0%	6.21	1045	171		114	-16.8%	35.39%	1000	161	16.10	2,228	359
Fri	87	3.4%	6.42	1132	186	E	142	24.6%	63.03%	1142	184	15.58	2,604	419
Sat	130	48.8%	9.55	1262	207	E	225	58.5%	73.61%	1367	220	10.47	2,748	443
Sun	118	-9.0%	8.69	1379	226	P
													Proj Ave	397
		1st	Week							2nd	Week
Fri	195			195	32	E	142		-27.18%	142	23
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69	E	225	58.5%	0.90%	367	59
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103
Mon	123	-42.1%		754	124
		Str8 Up
TF/FF	Day	TF4	FF7
F/Su	1	195	398
S/M	2	223	184
S/T	3	213	167
M/W	4	123	137	11.3%
T/Th	5	112	114	1.6%
W/F	6	95	142	50.1%
Th/S	7	84	225	167.2%
F/Su	8
	Total	1045	1367	30.8%
	Tot $	171	220	28.7%

 

 

 

I don't see how it misses 400m   at this point unless they yank 66% of its theaters next weekend.

 

Comparing FF7 2W toTF4 OW. It was a fine Friday increase but Saturday's was a huge  . When you remove midnights from TF4 and opening day hype, FF7's second weekend is effectively matching TF4's OW, and this, after doing 1b/161m in sales. I don't see how it declines any faster percentage wise than TF4 did from its OW over the coming midweek, and if it retains showtimes, holds or outperforms TF4 next weekend, then if TF4 could make 217 after OW then its possible FF7 could follow suit 450M+

 

Holding similar declines from Saturday for the next 3 weeks projects 443m.

 

Str8 Up  Its running 30% ahead and wont give much ground back as M-T wont be much smaller than TF4's S-Su.  This shows regardless of what day its comparing to, it keeps holding or increasing the percentage lead. 30% more at this point is $415m and it will increase that percentage later in the week.

 

This is part market expansion, but the rest is a serious WOM bolstering the numbers. The demand is saying this going to a whole other level. What the powers that be do is another thing. Looking forward to the Monday and Tuesday numbers. The unrealistic is looking possible though...

 

TF4 made 93m after its 55m second weekend. I don't see how this makes just 100m more after this 90m+ weekend to come in at 350m. I'll eat Omni's hat!

Edited April 18, 2015 by No Prisoners

[seduh]

great Saturday! It's going to be a close race to $400

[Olive]

[POTUS 2020]

are there any large local films opening next weekend?

I assume there are a couple the following weekend for may day

[Olive]

Kungfu panda 3 will also be a coproduction, likely to be released during Spring Festival Golden week.

[Fullbuster]

I just can't believe FF7 will pass TF4, it's completely unheard o_o

I really wish The Avengers 2 can surprise us and pass $300m, that would be so incredible! Now I bet on $250m and that would be fantastic already but I really hope it can go beyond my expectations.

[Emirazza]

Kungfu panda 3 will also be a coproduction, likely to be released during Spring Festival Golden week.

KP2 made $500M OS, but next year I think KP3 would make $500M alone in China. 

Edited April 19, 2015 by Emirazza

[abra]

Gewara 2002401 nice result?

[Neo]

[htall90]

I just can't believe FF7 will pass TF4, it's completely unheard o_o

I really wish The Avengers 2 can surprise us and pass $300m, that would be so incredible! Now I bet on $250m and that would be fantastic already but I really hope it can go beyond my expectations.

If avengers makes 250 mil in China it would be amazing 3 times what the last one made. Can't moan about that just because it's less then ff7 250 mil is amazing gross still.

[Olive]

[Olive]

Sunday(4/19/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Furious 7: 198M~1566M~$252.7M  #2 all time grosser

2.Ever Since We Love: 24.8M~73.3M~$11.8M

3.Wolf Warriors: 9.3M~489M~$78.9M

4.Mortdecai: 4.7M~13.4M~$2.2M

5.The Queens:1.5M~11.7M~$1.9M

 

 

 (Current exchange rate $=6.196 Yuan). 

[Lihongkim]

are there any large local films opening next weekend?

I assume there are a couple the following weekend for may day

The Left Ear (4.24)

Helios, Red Amnesia, Murmur of the Heart (4.30)

You are my sunshine (5.1)

 

Maybe all of them a not strong enough to take most of screens from FF7

 

Kungfu panda 3 will also be a coproduction, likely to be released during Spring Festival Golden week.

If so, 2016 Spring Festival Golden week will see big competition :

1. The Mermaid  (Stephen Chow)

2. The Monkey King 2

3.  Macau 3

4.  Investiture of Gods (Jet Li)

 

But i don't think so b.c Ning Hao & Xu Zheng animated film " Crazy Nian " also take that golden week..

[Durden]

 

 

 

 

[Fake]

Sunday(4/19/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Furious 7: 198M~1566M~$252.7M #2 all time grosser

2.Ever Since We Love: 24.8M~73.3M~$11.8M

3.Wolf Warriors: 9.3M~489M~$78.9M

4.Mortdecai: 4.7M~13.4M~$2.2M

5.The Queens:1.5M~11.7M~$1.9M

(Current exchange rate $=6.196 Yuan).

Awesome Sunday hold! Just a 12% drop.

[POTUS 2020]

		TF4								FF7
Day	Yuan	% +/-	% BO -OW	Total	$ Tot		Yuan	% +/-	TF4 vs FF7	Total	$ Tot	% Cume	TF4 Mltplr	DayxM +OW	$Proj
Fri	195			195	32
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69		51	- MN
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103		347		63.1%	398	64	-37.9%
Mon	123	-42.1%	9.07	754	124		184	-47.0%	49.5%	582	94	-24.0%	11.03	2,421	390
Tues	112	-8.9%	8.25	866	142		167	-9.2%	48.8%	749	121	-14.9%	12.12	2,416	389
Wed	95	-15.7%	6.97	961	157		137	-18.0%	44.8%	886	143	-9.3%	14.35	2,358	380
Thur	84	-11.0%	6.21	1045	171		114	-16.8%	35.4%	1000	161	-5.8%	16.10	2,228	359
Fri	87	3.4%	6.42	1132	186		142	24.6%	63.0%	1142	184	-0.7%	15.58	2,604	419
Sat	130	48.8%	9.55	1262	207		225	58.5%	73.6%	1367	220	6.6%	10.47	2,748	443
Sun	118	-9.0%	8.69	1379	226		198	-12.0%	67.9%	1565	252	11.6%	11.51	2,670	430
Mon	54	-58.33%	4.02	1433	235	P	99	-50.0%	83.3%	1664	268	14.2%	24.85	2,852	459
Tue	53	-1.85%	3.95	1486	244	P	97	-1.9%	83.3%	1761	284	16.6%	25.32	2,852	459
Wed	43	-18.87%	3.20	1529	251	P	79	-18.9%	83.3%	1840	297	18.4%	31.21	2,852	459
Thu	39	-9.30%	2.91	1568	257	P	72	-9.3%	83.3%	1912	308	19.9%	34.41	2,852	459
														AvePro	401
		Str8 Up				TF4			1st	Week	FF7			2nd	Week
TF/FF	Day	TF4	FF7	%Cume		Day	Yuan	% Ch	Total	$ Tot	Yuan	% Ch	vs TF4	Total	$ Tot
F/Su	1	195	398	104.3%		Fri	195		195	32	142		-27.2%	142	23
S/M	2	223	184	39.4%		Sat	223	14.4%	418	69	225	58.5%	0.9%	367	59
S/T	3	213	167	18.8%		Sun	213	-4.6%	631	103	198	-12.0%	-6.9%	565	91
M/W	4	123	137	17.5%		Mon	123	-42.1%	754	124
T/Th	5	112	114	15.5%		Tue	112	-8.9%	866	142
W/F	6	95	142	18.9%		Wed	95	-15.7%	961	157
Th/S	7	84	225	30.8%		Thu	84	-11.0%	1045	171
F/Su	8	87	198	38.3%
S/M	9	130	99	31.9%	P		Day 8	DOM	Total	211
S/T	10	118	97	27.7%	P		Day 8	CHI	Total	252
M/W	11	54	79	28.4%	P
T/Th	12	53	72	28.6%	P
	Total	1486	1911.5	28.6%
	Tot $	244	308	26.5%
Proj$	30	319	404	26.5%

 

Another amazing number. Nearly matching TF4s first Sat/Sun after all that burn off. Many thought a 20-30% drop from Saturday but it held tight like TF4 did.

 

It just keeps pulling further and further away dollar and percentage wise. TF4 did well , not the typical crashes most movies have. right through its fifth and final weekend This weekend displays there is still plenty of demand to keep the PSA high and therefore the showtimes high through at least next weekend and should have decent legs through the end, decent for China anyway.

 

TF4 fell 42% on Monday in week 1 and 58% in week 2. I'd like to think it could stay close to a 40% drop, however I put 50% to project tomorrow and put the TF4 drops for the rest of the week to project it. Last week it fell 47% after that huge opener sans midnights. If it can hold 50% or better it will have a $50m midweek and close to a 100m week and $350m+ in total.as it approaches Golden Week a few days later.

 

Here is the last 3 weeks of TF4. They held better than average I assume because it was such a huge hit and the excess demand spilled over as well as WOM. I assume the same will happen with FF7 but on a bigger scale with better holds and a GW pop.

 

3RD WEEK: 53.7M/52.6M/43.7M/39.1M/41.7M/62.2M/57.7M

4TH WEEK: 25.7M/27.7M/23.2M/18.2M/16.7M/15.5M/25.3M

5TH WEEK: 12.3M/13.0/11.0M

[Olive]

 

Sunday(4/19/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Furious 7: 198M~1566M~$252.7M  #2 all time grosser

2.Ever Since We Love: 24.8M~73.3M~$11.8M

3.Wolf Warriors: 9.3M~489M~$78.9M

4.Mortdecai: 4.7M~13.4M~$2.2M

5.The Queens:1.5M~11.7M~$1.9M

 

 

 (Current exchange rate $=6.196 Yuan). 

 

Update: weaker night shows for FF7 than expected: revised Sunday 184M/1552M, or $250.3M!

[Olive]

Next Friday, The Left Ear, HOME and Sabotage will open wide, could take many screens from FF7.

But May day holiday weekend looks quite weak this year, FF7 could have a boost on that long weekend.

[Fake]

Update: weaker night shows for FF7 than expected: revised Sunday 184M/1552M, or $250.3M!

Fuck dis shit!

However, still a good number..... around what was expected.

Should drop 55-60% tomorrow.

[abra]

1ST UPDATE, WRITETHRU; Refresh for latest… Estimated offshore returns are starting to roll in from the studios on a weekend that saw Furious 7 keep up its breakneck box office pace. Universal’s magnificent 7 cruised past $1B on Friday, marking a milestone as the studio’s first ever billion-dollar-baby. This weekend, it added $167.9M at 18,423 dates in 67 territories for an overseas cume of $858.3M in only 19 days. The worldwide tally is now $1.153B after three weeks at No. 1 and making F7 the studio’s top-grossing movie ever and the No. 7 pic of all time.

In China, the Furious numbers are positively mad. With a $93.3M weekend in the Middle Kingdom, the total is now $250.5M after just eight days. Vin Diesel & Co have broken myriad records including as the fastest film to cross 1B yuan (it took five days). F7 is now the second highest grossing American film of all time, behind Transformers: Age Of Extinction at $301M.

 

http://deadline.com/2015/04/international-box-office-furious-7-child-44-cinderella-dragonball-z-1201412508/

 

$ 93m data unless some do not agree ?