China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[porginchina]

8 hours ago, MG10 said:

So are they willing to continue with the absurd strategy of targeting 0 cases and deaths or are they also thinking of other solutions like South Korea and Japan (or simply any other country that isn't China or Australia)? And does anyone know if the market will recover in time for June or if it might take even longer?

My understanding is that dynamic zero-Covid will continue until they've a) vaccinated most of the elderly b) acquired a large enough stockpile of effective treatment drugs c) I think they're also hoping that the virus becomes less deadly. China has a huge elderly population with a ton of preexisting conditions and a very unequal distribution of medical resources between developed cities like Shanghai and the rest of the country. In the immediate term, abandoning the zero-Covid measures would be a disaster as the medical system would get overwhelmed (and you'd have general societal chaos).

 

They are moving into a new phase of pandemic prevention by trying to up the elderly vaccination rate and requiring near-constant nucleic acid testing for people. The situation does appear to be getting better; Shanghai's numbers are going down, but nobody I know places much faith in the figures the government has been releasing (the city government has lost so much credibility throughout this crisis). Beijing's in quasi-shutdown now and is trying to mass test their way into normalcy.

 

I believe Shanghai is generally expected to return to normalcy either late this month or early June. Hopefully the market as a whole is back to functioning by then as well.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, porginchina said:

 

I believe Shanghai is generally expected to return to normalcy either late this month or early June. Hopefully the market as a whole is back to functioning by then as well.

 

I feel like even if the theatres reopen up to 80%+, the attendance is still going to be way down for quite some time,  just because the cost and the fear associated with getting infected (or worse, being locked down literally right in the theatre) is way too high in China that it significantly outweighs any motivation for movie going. The mentality toward Covid is just completely different.

 

JW Dominion is going to be interesting to watch, it will probably come at a time when most theatres are open though general attendance is still down, but perhaps the right film can stimulate attendance. 

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by NCsoft

[dobrevvselena]

 

 

[porginchina]

Link to full story (partially behind a paywall): https://puck.news/the-chinese-had-one-note-on-spider-man/

 

Quoting the relevant section—
 

Quote

 

According to multiple sources, when the authorities got back to Sony, they had a request: Delete the Statue of Liberty from the ending of the film. Yes, seriously. As anyone who’s seen No Way Home knows, the entire climactic action sequence takes place with a trio of Spider-Men swinging over and around Lady Liberty as they battle the supervillains. Plus, without getting too into MCU plot points, the Statue plays a larger role in the Marvel movies. It was an outrageous ask.

 

But…. as is familiar to anyone who has debated censoring films for China, cuts often equal money. And Rothman loves money—this is a guy who projected a giant $3.3 billion figure, representing Sony’s recent box office gross, behind him during his Cinemacon presentation this week. Still, to Rothman’s credit, Sony immediately said no. (The studio declined to comment.) 

 

But the Chinese weren’t done. Then they asked if the Statue could simply be minimized in the sequence: if Sony could cut a few of the more patriotic shots of Holland standing atop the crown, or dull the lighting so that Lady Liberty’s visage wasn’t so front-and-center. Sony thought about this request, per my sources, but ultimately passed, knowing that it almost certainly meant forfeiting that potentially massive China payday. Could the studio have made the changes? Maybe, but the move would have caused a media firestorm in the U.S. and elsewhere. Plus, even with the alterations, there was no guarantee that No Way Home would get into the country, and even if it did, U.S. films just aren’t doing as well in China as they once did. Pretty easy decision.

 

Assuming this is true (and it seems plausible), the film regulators in Beijing are doing an excellent job of ensuring China's future irrelevancy as a film market and massively undermining their own global influence. (Also, nationalistic tabloid Global Times has weighed in on the Multiverse of Madness madness: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1260710.shtml; nothing new or interesting, really, but worth noting that we've now got semi-official confirmation of the government being irritated).

 

Wonder if we'll get any fuss from the Chinese side when the US/Canada surpasses China's 2022 box office, possibly within the next week.

[honeycookiez]

1 hour ago, porginchina said:

Link to full story (partially behind a paywall): https://puck.news/the-chinese-had-one-note-on-spider-man/

 

Quoting the relevant section—
 

Assuming this is true (and it seems plausible), the film regulators in Beijing are doing an excellent job of ensuring China's future irrelevancy as a film market and massively undermining their own global influence. (Also, nationalistic tabloid Global Times has weighed in on the Multiverse of Madness madness: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1260710.shtml; nothing new or interesting, really, but worth noting that we've now got semi-official confirmation of the government being irritated).

 

Wonder if we'll get any fuss from the Chinese side when the US/Canada surpasses China's 2022 box office, possibly within the next week.

 

 

So, I'm a little bit confused, are they being strict this time specifically just because of the upcoming big event (re-electing Mr.Xi)? or will they be more strict moving forward? 

[porginchina]

18 minutes ago, honeycookiez said:

 

 

So, I'm a little bit confused, are they being strict this time specifically just because of the upcoming big event (re-electing Mr.Xi)? or will they be more strict moving forward? 

A mixture of factors, I'd assume. Keep in mind that China doesn't believe in explaining itself super clearly— they derive more leverage from uncertainty. But a few possibilities:

1. Xi's general drive towards more Chinese nationalism and the increasing influence of online super-nationalists (the so-called keyboard warriors) on government direction
2. Politically important events like the 100th anniversary of the Party in 2021 and Xi's re-election later this year are causing regulators to be more scrupulous than they otherwise would be
3. Heightened international tensions due to the pandemic (as well as political missteps by the Xi administration resulting in a surge in anti-China sentiment abroad)
4. Overconfidence in the domestic Chinese movie industry's ability to keep theaters afloat (right now looks like they'll produce 2-3 big mega-hits a year, which just isn't enough… the mid-range has really fallen out of the market)

For Multiverse of Madness, anything connected to Falun Gong in your movie is going to be an immediate ban. We're talking similar levels of political sensitivity to the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989; even when screenshots from Multiverse of Madness were circulating through Weibo to criticize Marvel, many netizens blurred out the offending text (the censors still struck down a number of images).

 

Ultimately, all of this is just speculation, albeit informed speculation. In the short-term, I'm growing steadily less optimistic in China's direction, particularly as we see more and more political entrenchment, but long-run I remain generally hopeful about the country's potential.

[Issac Newton]

WK: April 29-May 1, 2022 (Fri-Sun)

 

#01 Stay With Me : ¥55,360,600 🆕

#02 Bad Guys : ¥29,821,300 🆕

#03 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥19,767,700 / ¥136,352,100 (-2)

#04 Man On The Edge : ¥14,551,200 / ¥82,269,800 (-2)

#05 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥11,474,900 / ¥71,724,000 (-1)

#06 Drishyam : ¥5,193,200 / ¥18,523,500 (-1)

#07 Uncharted : ¥4,099,800 / ¥122,268,700 (+2)

#08 The Batman : ¥3,923,400 / ¥152,229,500 (-1)

#09 Escape Room 2 : ¥3,393,800 / ¥51,093,000 (-3)

#10 Moonfall : ¥3,319,800 / ¥136,481,700 (-2)

 

Unplaced Numbers (Total)

Water Gate Bridge : ¥4,062,977,400

Too Cool To Kill : ¥2,624,431,100

Boonie Bear: Back To Earth : ¥967,331,200

We Made A Beautiful Bouquet : ¥91,038,200

Ambulance : ¥13,290,900

Love At Second Sight : ¥7,779,400

 

New Releases, Stay With Me &Bad Guys dominated the Weekend with strong debut at No.1 &No.2 respectively. Stay With Me had scored 8.5 on Ticketing Platform "Maoyan" which includes also declared to be the most anticipated release of the week. I am currently thinking about ¥150M+ potential finals which is already being supported by Monday trends.

 

Bad Guys, on the other hand, had lower anticipation across the weekend. It's loosely held OD was a great sense of worry at the start well, scores across the platform had build a strong sense of WOM, which makes sure that it's gonna be the biggest Imported Animated Film. Currently, forecast above ¥100M finals.

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 appeared on third, ranking down by two, but improved by 79%, which has already made it the third highest grossing Imported &Hollywood Title of the year. It's very much certain to exceed ¥160M now, &likely to go ahead of The Batman.

 

Man On The Edge, recording 66% increase from prev. Weekend looks to end it's run at ¥100M, While Hotel Transylvania 4 recorded 110% increase will soon cross Encanto and very soon it's likely to outgross Paw Patrol The Movie, which is currently leading the charts of being the 2022 highest grossing Animated Film (Imported)

 

Overall, among all the TOP 10, Uncharted recorded the biggest percentile increase of 129% , expecting to close at ¥130M. Well, the gap between Moonfall and The Batman is unfortunately increasing, unfavoring the likely chance of topping the latter.....

[honeycookiez]

3 hours ago, porginchina said:

A mixture of factors, I'd assume. Keep in mind that China doesn't believe in explaining itself super clearly— they derive more leverage from uncertainty. But a few possibilities:

1. Xi's general drive towards more Chinese nationalism and the increasing influence of online super-nationalists (the so-called keyboard warriors) on government direction
2. Politically important events like the 100th anniversary of the Party in 2021 and Xi's re-election later this year are causing regulators to be more scrupulous than they otherwise would be
3. Heightened international tensions due to the pandemic (as well as political missteps by the Xi administration resulting in a surge in anti-China sentiment abroad)
4. Overconfidence in the domestic Chinese movie industry's ability to keep theaters afloat (right now looks like they'll produce 2-3 big mega-hits a year, which just isn't enough… the mid-range has really fallen out of the market)

For Multiverse of Madness, anything connected to Falun Gong in your movie is going to be an immediate ban. We're talking similar levels of political sensitivity to the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989; even when screenshots from Multiverse of Madness were circulating through Weibo to criticize Marvel, many netizens blurred out the offending text (the censors still struck down a number of images).

 

Ultimately, all of this is just speculation, albeit informed speculation. In the short-term, I'm growing steadily less optimistic in China's direction, particularly as we see more and more political entrenchment, but long-run I remain generally hopeful about the country's potential.

 

 

Thank you for the detailed response, so, it's likely that for now Marvel is targeted by their strict examination because it's dominating the superhero genre, it has a large fanbase, and it also has a strong brand awareness which can easily influence its audience and young people. DC doesn't have such luxury, which ironically helps them pass the censorship easier. Plus, unfortunately, Chapek's team and relationships with China couldn't help the situation get any better, unlike in Iger's era.

Well, I have no doubt that the market will eventually recover in the long run. I think it might happen probably by the end of 2024. Personally, I don't think zero-covid is a permanent strategy, it's likely just a "display of power" of how China can influence the world (as CNN just stated that US economy just shrank in the first quarter)  until after Mr. Xi fully gets re-reelected.

[xieh tie]

 

A “Walter” remake , a co-production between Chinese and Serbian studios has been shelved because pandemic

[Issac Newton]

Monday Estimate

 

#1 Stay With Me : ¥19.2M / ¥74.6M

#2 Bad Guys : ¥17.4M / ¥47.2M

#3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥7.2M / ¥143.6M

#4 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥5.5M / ¥77.2M

#5 Man On The Edge : ¥4.8M / ¥87.1M

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥153.8M), Moonfall (¥140.1M), Uncharted (¥124.1M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥91.2M), Escape Room 2 (¥52.4M) &Ambulance (¥13.7M)

 

Great Monday! Fantastic Beasts 3 will soon be the 2022 Highest Grossing Imported Films in Mainland China by Wednesday 

 

Last Monday

#1 Man On The Edge : ¥1.70M

#2 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.47M

#4 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥534K

[Noiret Jak]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Monday Estimate

 

#1 Stay With Me : ¥19.2M / ¥74.6M

#2 Bad Guys : ¥17.4M / ¥47.2M

#3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥7.2M / ¥143.6M

#4 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥5.5M / ¥77.2M

#5 Man On The Edge : ¥4.8M / ¥87.1M

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥153.8M), Moonfall (¥140.1M), Uncharted (¥124.1M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥91.2M), Escape Room 2 (¥52.4M) &Ambulance (¥13.7M)

 

Great Monday! Fantastic Beasts 3 will soon be the 2022 Highest Grossing Imported Films in Mainland China by Wednesday 

 

Last Monday

#1 Man On The Edge : ¥1.70M

#2 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.47M

#4 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥534K

a chance that FB3 performs much higher?

[ThatWaluigiDude]

This monday looks way too good. Is there any special reason for this many movies increasing?

[Leviathan]

As expected. Here in Asia, people are very fond of the wizarding franchise even tho its quality has been downgraded lately

[Olive]

3 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

This monday looks way too good. Is there any special reason for this many movies increasing?

national holiday until Wednesday

[efialtes76]

The Bad Guys number 1 today.

[Issac Newton]

Tuesday Estimates

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥15.3M / ¥62.9M (+1)

#2 Stay With Me : ¥14M / ¥89.2M (-1)

#3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥5.6M / ¥149.1M

#4 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥4.4M / ¥81.6M

#5 Man On The Edge : ¥3.7M / ¥91M

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥154.8M), Moonfall (¥141.3M), Uncharted (¥125.8M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥91.4M), Escape Room 2 (¥53.6M), Drishyam (¥22.3M), Ambulance (¥14M)

 

Woo! Let's go Fantastic Beasts 3 (needs ¥5.7M to top The Batman) Hotel Transylvania 4 to top Paw Patrol The Movie tomorrow 🥳

 

Last Tuesday:

#1 Man On The Edge : ¥1.79M

#2 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.43M

#5 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥506K

 

15 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

The Bad Guys number 1 today.

9.1 (~14.3K) : Maoyan

8.9 (~x9.1K) : Taopiaopiao

 

Stay With Me's Scores:

8.4 (~46.5K) : Maoyan

7.8 (~x7.8K) : Taopiaopiao 

[porginchina]

Five-day box office for the May 1st holiday currently at ¥288 million ($43.6 million) as of about 6:00 p.m. China time May 4. There's still some time remaining tonight with the prime moviegoing hours, but still looks like it'll be 80+% off the previous five-day May 1st holidays 2021 (¥1673 million), down 80% from the four-day May 1st holiday in 2019 (¥1527 million), and less than a third of the three-day holiday in 2018 (¥1006 million).

 

Not great.

[Issac Newton]

Did "The Silk Road", 1988 Japanese Film had a Chinese Release? Originally, it grossed ¥8.2B in Japan. (Rental : ¥4.5B)

 

1988 Japanese film Dun Huang 敦煌 (Tonkō) is still the best war movie set in ancient China. To this day, no Chinese film could surpass it. pic.twitter.com/FMJDA5L3Wv

— Carl Zha (@CarlZha) May 2, 2022

[Issac Newton]

Wednesday Estimates 

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥10.8M / ¥73.9M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥7.3M / ¥97M

#3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥3.1M / ¥152.2M

#4 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥2.8M / ¥84.4M

#5 Man On The Edge : ¥2.4M / ¥93.6M

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥155.5M), Moonfall (¥142M), Uncharted (¥126.8M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥91.5M), Escape Room 2 (¥54.4M), Drishyam (¥23.5M), Ambulance (¥14.2M)

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 needs ¥3.3M to top The Batman, Hotel Transylvania 4 to top Paw Patrol The Movie today, later to be defeated by Bad Guys on upcoming weekend.

 

Last Wednesday:

#1 Man On The Edge : ¥1.86M

#2 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.39M

#5 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥536K

[xieh tie]