China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$1000M China is at risk as C.E.R. says that we need ¥6730M for $1000M China. Want to see score is at 439K. Hopefully, I expect exchange rate to stable before release. 

 

Whatever, ¥6000M is my highest bid and Lowest one is to overtake Endgame (¥4250M)

I was asking more about the trailer. If we had any view counts in China or whatever.

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, MaverickXXR said:

I was asking more about the trailer. If we had any view counts in China or whatever.

I don't know if Douyin count make any sense but here is the official count on Weibo (8.06M views) from 20th Century Studio's Weibo

 

James Cameron's Weibo

 

Spoiler

I am sorry for what has happened today. I have made lots of typos on my post including misunderstanding. I am totally absent minded as I am following Eleksyon 2022 too much today.

 

[Olive]

Avatar 2 trailer has quite good buzz. but no where near AEG.

[porginchina]

Bad Guys has received a one-month extension in theaters until June 28 as theaters remain generally quiet. Shanghai's numbers are getting better (at least where I live, Covid testing continues at a ferocious pace, so the downturn in cases is likely due to an actual downturn in cases; we've been receiving nucleic acid tests every 48 hours).

 

So far no word on when Jurassic World Dominion might receive a release. Personally, I'll be surprised if the first big release after this round of lockdowns is a domestic movie as I can't see regulators wanting to force a domestic film studio to shoulder that risk (the first big release in 2020 was The Eight Hundred, a movie that had been blocked from its initial release due to governmental conflicts and was thus politically expendable; I can't think of any high-profile Chinese movie in the past few months to suffer from such backlash).

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, porginchina said:

Bad Guys has received a one-month extension in theaters until June 28 as theaters remain generally quiet. Shanghai's numbers are getting better (at least where I live, Covid testing continues at a ferocious pace, so the downturn in cases is likely due to an actual downturn in cases; we've been receiving nucleic acid tests every 48 hours).

 

So far no word on when Jurassic World Dominion might receive a release. Personally, I'll be surprised if the first big release after this round of lockdowns is a domestic movie as I can't see regulators wanting to force a domestic film studio to shoulder that risk (the first big release in 2020 was The Eight Hundred, a movie that had been blocked from its initial release due to governmental conflicts and was thus politically expendable; I can't think of any high-profile Chinese movie in the past few months to suffer from such backlash).

In before Jurassic World Dominion gets release date of July 8 in China as a shade at Marvel from China.

 

 

[porginchina]

Found this piece on China's May Day box office haul—https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202205/07/WS62761f41a310fd2b29e5b3d4.html

 

Quote

 

China's movie box office enjoyed a bounce over the May Day holiday, amassing 297 million yuan ($44.77 million) over the five-day period ending Wednesday.

 

The nearly 300-million-yuan revenue, though much lower than the 1.67 billion yuan generated during the holiday last year, is "no easy feat," according to experts reached by Xinhua.

 

It is meaningful considering that the current wave of COVID-19 infections has caused the postponement of release dates by multiple major domestic titles and mounting cinema closures, especially in Shanghai and Beijing -- two box office powerhouses.

 

The achievement somehow signals hope for further film market recovery and serves as a warm-up for the summer movie season, usually a busy moviegoing period, they said.

 

 

An 80+% year-on-year drop as "better than expected." The moviegoing picture is bleak in China, at least for the foreseeable future.

[NCsoft]

26 minutes ago, porginchina said:

Found this piece on China's May Day box office haul—https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202205/07/WS62761f41a310fd2b29e5b3d4.html

 

 

An 80+% year-on-year drop as "better than expected." The moviegoing picture is bleak in China, at least for the foreseeable future.

 

Pretty unfortunate situation.

Starting to doubt if any film this year, imported or local, can take advantage of the Chinese market size at its maximum. 

Edited May 11, 2022 by NCsoft

[Issac Newton]

Wednesday Estimates

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥2.3M / ¥101.1M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥2M / ¥120.8M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥1.5M / ¥105.9M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥0.8M / ¥160.1M

#5 Drishyam : ¥0.6M / ¥28.7M

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥157.4M), Moonfall (¥144.6M), Uncharted (¥130.6M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥92M), Hotel Transylvania 4 (¥88.7M), Escape Room 2 (¥57.5M), &Ambulance (¥14.9M)

 

In Mainland China, "Bad Guys" became the first US Animated production to exceed ¥100M since "Raya and The Last Dragon" (¥127.54M / March 2021). Overall, "Bad Guys" became the first Imported Animated Film to exceed ¥100M since "Hello World" (¥136.51M / June 2021).

 

Last Wednesday

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥10.87M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥7.52M

#3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥3.09M

#5 Man On The Edge : ¥2.51M

#6 Drishyam : ¥1.19M

 

Cinema Opened : 7600 / 11822 (63%) 

[porginchina]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Pretty unfortunate situation.

Starting to doubt if any film this year, imported or local, can take advantage of the Chinese market size at its maximum. 

There might be more hope in the second half of the year, depending on how the Party handles Omicron. Right now, they're just locking down harder than ever in an attempt to zealously show their dedication to dynamically achieving societal zero spread, or whatever the current smear of jargon-y Xi-pleasing buzzwords happens to be. But the economic damage caused by the policy is extreme and they have to pivot at some point. Living in China, I've been consistently amazed at how central the economy is to the legitimacy of the entire political system of modern China. An economic crash will look very, very bad for the leadership and will be almost impossible to cover up.

 

I rather suspect that once Shanghai is deemed to be cleared of Covid, we might— might— start seeing some sort of pivot. Possibly. It may not be labeled explicitly as a pivot (there's a lot of interpretive wiggle from in "dynamic zero-Covid"), but it's possible.

 

Tl;dr— yep, the situation looks bleak as hell right now, but zero-Covid won't last forever and the government will be strongly incentivized to get the economy functioning again in the relatively near future.

[NCsoft]

18 minutes ago, porginchina said:

There might be more hope in the second half of the year, depending on how the Party handles Omicron. Right now, they're just locking down harder than ever in an attempt to zealously show their dedication to dynamically achieving societal zero spread, or whatever the current smear of jargon-y Xi-pleasing buzzwords happens to be. But the economic damage caused by the policy is extreme and they have to pivot at some point. Living in China, I've been consistently amazed at how central the economy is to the legitimacy of the entire political system of modern China. An economic crash will look very, very bad for the leadership and will be almost impossible to cover up.

 

I rather suspect that once Shanghai is deemed to be cleared of Covid, we might— might— start seeing some sort of pivot. Possibly. It may not be labeled explicitly as a pivot (there's a lot of interpretive wiggle from in "dynamic zero-Covid"), but it's possible.

 

Tl;dr— yep, the situation looks bleak as hell right now, but zero-Covid won't last forever and the government will be strongly incentivized to get the economy functioning again in the relatively near future.

 

I certainly hope this is the case.

I do agree that zero Covid will have to end at some point, recently the RMB trending down hard against USD, and other economic indicators aren't looking particularly good either. You're right in saying that the legitimacy of CCP hinged on economic development, but lately I feel the trend may be shifting toward a more nationalistic mentality based on antagonistic attitude toward the west, I think given the population demographics crisis, even the CCP understand that China's vigorous economic growth will flatten fairly soon and a shift in emotional target is needed.

 

There are some whispers that relaxation of the zero-covid policy will only come after the 20th congress meeting and then Xi assumes office for next term (I don't think that happens until early next year); the idea is that higher level of political stability can pave the way for policy relaxation. If that's case, we've got quite some time to wait.

 

[The GOAT]

1 hour ago, porginchina said:

There might be more hope in the second half of the year, depending on how the Party handles Omicron. Right now, they're just locking down harder than ever in an attempt to zealously show their dedication to dynamically achieving societal zero spread, or whatever the current smear of jargon-y Xi-pleasing buzzwords happens to be. But the economic damage caused by the policy is extreme and they have to pivot at some point. Living in China, I've been consistently amazed at how central the economy is to the legitimacy of the entire political system of modern China. An economic crash will look very, very bad for the leadership and will be almost impossible to cover up.

 

I rather suspect that once Shanghai is deemed to be cleared of Covid, we might— might— start seeing some sort of pivot. Possibly. It may not be labeled explicitly as a pivot (there's a lot of interpretive wiggle from in "dynamic zero-Covid"), but it's possible.

 

Tl;dr— yep, the situation looks bleak as hell right now, but zero-Covid won't last forever and the government will be strongly incentivized to get the economy functioning again in the relatively near future.

Vaccinate your Elders. Start jabbing every old person you see in the streets. Problem solved. 

Also, The Global Financial Collapse will happen regardless.   
 

 

[porginchina]

Disney CEO Bob Chapek on China—

 

Quote

“We’ve got a long track record of success and a strong fan base for our brands and franchises in this market,” he told Wall Street on a post-earnings conference call, in response to a question. “We’ll continue to submit our films for release. And it is worth noting, I think, though, that at the time that we are having some difficulty in getting our films in China, that Doctor Strange did extraordinarily well.”

 

(Source: https://deadline.com/2022/05/disney-ceo-bob-chapek-china-dr-strange-1235021804/)

 

More context from Deadline:

 

Quote

China and Hollywood have always had complicated relations. U.S. executives say it’s been a bit more so since the film industry, and the vetting of all foreign submissions, was put under the direct control of the Communist Party’s propaganda department in 2018. Execs during an international session at CinemaCon last month said films often aren’t rejected outright but just linger after being submitted, with a release date never set.

 

My take— yes, Disney is obviously struggling to get their films into China, but they co-own two Chinese theme park resorts, have had phenomenal success getting release dates even after the movie industry was put under the CCP's propaganda department in 2018 (China was one of the first markets Endgame opened in, and it opened right before the May Day holiday). That Turning Red hasn't yet acquired a Chinese release while Warner Bros. and Universal are doing just fine tells me that there's a Disney-specific problem working with the Chinese. Reading Chapek's words overly literally, if Disney's current strategy is "submit the movies for approval and see what happens," that's an awful strategy that fails to take into account anything with Chinese business culture. Iger went to the effort of building strong relationships with Chinese government officials; seems like Chapek isn't making any such efforts?

 

Don't see the problems that Disney's been having under Chapek causing an issue for Avatar: The Way of Water since Cameron is politically savvy with regards to China, but for general Disney releases like Lightyear and Thor: Love and Thunder…

[Arian1010]

At this point, it's safe to say that Chapek is just an awful leader. There is no better explanation for that. Chapek also expected Galactic Starcruiser to sell very well, which is pure arrogant. I hope Cameron and Avatar won't be affected. 

Edited May 12, 2022 by Arian1010

[Gavin Feng]

What little Bob said is trending on local internet.

[honeycookiez]

Jeez, as expected, I have no problem with seeing Chapek effed himself with the Florida gov but please why does he need to bring the others down to his hell hole too

Edited May 12, 2022 by honeycookiez

[Leviathan]

Chapek is like Walter Hamada of Disney 

[JustLurking]

What's with the outrage here? It doesn't seem to me like he said anything particularly egregious? "Yeah, we're struggling to get releases in China, but our films are still doing really well". Pretty simple, and frankly...true?

 

He's not going to give a doom-and-gloom answer, you've got to focus on the positives even if the loss of Chinese market is a net negative. Like, I seriously don't get what sort of answer y'all expected and/or wanted.

Edited May 12, 2022 by JustLurking

[honeycookiez]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

What's with the outrage here? It doesn't seem to me like he said anything particularly egregious? "Yeah, we're struggling to get releases in China, but our films are still doing really well". Pretty simple, and frankly...true?

 

He's not going to give a doom-and-gloom answer, you've got to focus on the positives even if the loss of Chinese market is a net negative. Like, I seriously don't get what sort of answer y'all expected and/or wanted.

 

From a certain point of view, yes, we understand why he had to sweet talk to the shareholders, There are a lot of ways to positively address the situation without @ss pulling it and dragging China along to save face while the other competitors and companies are still getting along very well with China. On Weibo, people are saying "then we should just ban all Disney films" (which means including Avatar). Thank Chapek for another massive F-up unprecedented "power move".

Edited May 12, 2022 by honeycookiez

[porginchina]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

What's with the outrage here? It doesn't seem to me like he said anything particularly egregious? "Yeah, we're struggling to get releases in China, but our films are still doing really well". Pretty simple, and frankly...true?

 

He's not going to give a doom-and-gloom answer, you've got to focus on the positives even if the loss of Chinese market is a net negative. Like, I seriously don't get what sort of answer y'all expected and/or wanted.

I was hoping for some awareness that Disney's struggles with China are becoming more and more unique to Disney; while I wouldn't expect Chapek to directly say that his current administration is incompetent, some awareness of the need to cultivate relationships in the country and respect Chinese citizens beyond coveting their money would be nice. Ultimately, Chapek's response is overly simplistic and fails to answer the questions asked by shareholders in any meaningful way.

 

While no American company needs to operate within China, Disney has made significant investments towards building their presence in the Chinese market, most notably with Shanghai Disneyland. If you're committed to China, then take China seriously and treat the market with some basic respect. Also, if you're committed to maximizing your shareholder's return on investment, then take China seriously and treat the market with some basic respect.

[Arian1010]

Looking back, it's such a miracle that Marvel had Bob Iger's aid when they tried to build up their franchise and Infinity war saga from the baby steps, you don't know what you've got till it's gone I suppose. I hope Secret war saga would archive the same support some days, I'm trying to be positive, lol, things are definitely so doom and gloom these days.