Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[lab276]

So it's Saturday was Friday - midnights.

The minus sign doesn't really look like a minus.

[Shawn Robbins]

BTW, anyone looking to compare IAL to TH, IAL's midnights were 1.7m. http://boxofficemojo...?id=2635&p=.htm

Funny you mention that. I remember the midnight show for IAL. I was shocked at how many people showed up at my theater. Didn't think one show would sell out and they ended up screening it in 3 or 4 auditoriums to meet demand. I would put that on the fact that TDK's trailer was launching with it, but even in late 2007 trailers were already online by that point. Plus IAL had a ton of buzz on its own too thanks to Smith coming off of Pursuit of Happyness.

[baumer]

So Shawn, what would you predict for the weekend off a 40 mill Friday?

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

So it's Saturday was Friday - midnights.

Pretty much, so if TH has a 40m OD and 13m came from midnights then Sat is equal to Friday proper, then its Sat will be smaller than IAL's Saturday(13+27 = 40). I see an increase though, since TH is more appealing to families. Maybe something like this:40(13+27)33(+22% from Fri proper)22(-33%)=95m

[lab276]

Pretty much, so if TH has a 40m OD and 13m came from midnights then Sat is equal to Friday proper, then its Sat will be smaller than IAL's Saturday(13+27 = 40). I see an increase though, since TH is more appealing to families. Maybe something like this:40(13+27)33(+22% from Fri proper)22(-33%)=95m

I don't think the increase will be that big, Narnia only went up 10%. Different weeks, but the difference shouldn't be so great. Edited December 14, 2012 by lab276

[Heretic]

When it's not even 7pm on the east coast, and 4pm on the West, Nikki's 'values' hold absolutely no weight whatsoever.

[iceroll]

I think that 40m number will go up, people had work/school today and it will do a lot of nighttime business.

[riczhang]

So what've I missed? (And it looks like we could hit 50 pages by the end of the day, or early tomorrow )

[Shawn Robbins]

So Shawn, what would you predict for the weekend off a 40 mill Friday?

Hah. I honestly don't know. There just aren't any good comparisons for this movie, IMO. Narnia 1 has always felt like the best one to me given the family-leaning book comparison. If it does $40m Friday, I think it could still get to a $100 million weekend. I really cannot write off the family rush for this though which could give it a big Saturday and Sunday. That's really what a cornerstone of what I've always banked on for the movie (and/or them not showing up until next weekend closer to Christmas).We'll see. Not to use it as a crutch, but the news of the day isn't helping matters either. I'm actively trying to avoid hearing or reading about it (only site I'm on online is here) but can't seem to get away from it. Edited December 14, 2012 by ShawnMR

[mattmav45]

The problem with a lukewarm reception for The Hobbit is the main criticism comes from the dividing into three separate films. Main criticism seems to be pacing issues and lagging time..........which is directly as a result of trying to stretch this out as much as humanly possible.The Hobbit really needed to be a badass film...........the kind of event that made people want two more films. I think this initial reception is only going to hamper the last two films as well.It's quite obvious when only the LOTR loonies are trying to salvage any hope or grace at this point.

[kayumanggi]

Saw this last night. Very enjoyable. To haters out there, DIE.

[Shawn Robbins]

The Hobbit really needed to be a badass film...........the kind of event that made people want two more films. I think this initial reception is only going to hamper the last two films as well.

Completely agreed with this part of your post. I've always felt this would be the highest grossing of the three films. Still, we don't know where its headed yet. Edited December 15, 2012 by ShawnMR

[kayumanggi]

The LOTR films had pacing issues too.

[Shawn Robbins]

The LOTR films had pacing issues too.

Every movie has pacing issues for some people. Especially on the Internet. Avengers, LOTR, TDK... if there's a movie people love, others don't. If there's a movie don't like, others do. Edited December 15, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Dementeleus]

I think it'll definitely hurt DoS to some degree. But, I think DoS will boost interest again. Figure on it following the Star Wars pattern (both OT and PT, interestingly enough).

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I don't think the increase will be that big, Narnia only went up 10%. Different weeks, but the difference shouldn't be so great.

True, but Narnia's fanbase was...different. Still, in your scenario it would look like this:40302090m OW.100m isn't out, because all TH would need is the Friday number to go up 3m or so. 45 would be enough.

[Dementeleus]

I'll also say that I don't think the "bloat" in TH1 is a direct result of 3 films, I think PJ is arguably too in love with the material and wants to keep it all in. If you only have enough for 2 films and decide to expand to 3, you don't make the first film almost 3 hours -- you keep it short and slide a bunch of material into the next one. Even taking 20 minutes or so out of TH1, I can't see how you could get through all the events to the original spot where it was supposed to end -- there's just too much to do unless it's all one giant montage.

Edited December 15, 2012 by Telemachos

[Shawn Robbins]

I'm anxious to see this in HFR now. Say what you will about the narrative structure, this is one of the most visually striking movies I've seen since Avatar.

[Shawn Robbins]

I'll also say that I don't think the "bloat" in TH1 is a direct result of 3 films, I think PJ is arguably too in love with the material and wants to keep it all in. If you only have enough for 2 films and decide to expand to 3, you don't make the first film almost 3 hours -- you keep it short a slide a bunch of material into the next one. Even taking 20 minutes or so out of TH1, I can't see how you could get through all the events to the original spot where it was supposed to end -- there's just too much to do unless it's all one giant montage.

Agreed. I originally thought the three film plan would mean a first movie closer to the running time of 140-150 minutes tops but I was wrong on that end. After seeing it though, I totally get why. For what they apparently wanted to accomplish here, the additional material usually makes sense. Edited December 15, 2012 by ShawnMR

[lab276]

I think PJ is arguably too in love with the material

I think he's too in love with making really long films.