fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) Expectations have nothing to do with anything.Next to the original trilogy, TH is doing quite poorly with a massive drop in attendance.Next to the average tentpole, TH is doing very well.TH is a great success but we are talking about one of the most renown intellectual properties in the world.This. It`s doing well. It just isn`t the story anymore, well, not the positive story like THG, TA, Skyfall. IMO, people expected too much from the fact it`s based on a classic while market has changed, both in literature and movies. YA was in infancy back in 2001-2003. Now it`s a major genre and there`s a huge demographics that is drawn to kind of stories and heroes that TH simply doesn`t have and won`t have even with some made-up additions. Thanks to YA explosion, girls are no more satisfied with movies where female characters are added only as boner-givers to adolescent boys. They want a character as the main protagonist so they can identify with her. That`s why I`m hoping that "instant boner" double-wielder ina corset warrior Elfette will completely misfire with THG fans and female audience. She`s a ridiculous and much much older Katniss knock-off created to cash in on THG craze and be sex object for boys who can be her sons. Pathetic.Anyway, my point is that every generation has their own heroes and this generation`s ones, at least on female side, come from recent literature. OTOH, guys, and girls as well, are also treated to Marvel marvels and TDK so that`s really much more competition for TH than LOTR ever had. Edited December 23, 2012 by fishnets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Better number for TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't like these movies anyway, so I don't mind them disappointing. They insist upon themselves, and they insist upon themselves for 3 hours.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Better number for THWell, $31 mio estimate for weekend was always bullshit so of course it`s a better number though I don`t see why it wasn`t estimated at about $36 mio to begin with. B was close with $34 mio. I hope B`s right. I don`t want any jumps to $40 mio, no sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And i don't. Last time i checked $400m is much less than $550m. Even without 3D ROTK adjusts to close to $500m.And that's the next "mistake" - you can't just adjust receipts. Look at the following list:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/You'll see that from 2003 (RotK) to 2011 (we dont' have numbers yet for 2012) the market expanded by nearly exactly 10%. That's about the maximum factor you should apply when adjustung numbers. The same applies as with 3D: The more expensive the tickets, the fewer admissions. Otherwise (using your adjustment) 2011 should be up about 126% from 2003. It doesn't work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So 35 for the weekend then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C73V Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 They insist upon themselves, and they insist upon themselves for 3 hours..According to peter griffin, the same is true for the godfather which makes it a bad movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) And that's the next "mistake" - you can't just adjust receipts. Look at the following list:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/You'll see that from 2003 (RotK) to 2011 (we dont' have numbers yet for 2012) the market expanded by nearly exactly 10%. That's about the maximum factor you should apply when adjustung numbers. The same applies as with 3D: The more expensive the tickets, the fewer admissions. Otherwise (using your adjustment) 2011 should be up about 126% from 2003. It doesn't work that way.It does work that way, sometimes. Look at Toy Story.Why should 2011 be up 126%? Only a fraction of all tickets sold are in 3D, the vast majority of movies are in 2D. Edited December 23, 2012 by Elessar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So 35 for the weekend then. Sounds right. I`d say that anything under is underestimation. I was calling Saturday jump since opening weekend so I should get a round of applause for being objective despite rooting heavily against this completely unnecessary, redundant trilogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 According to peter griffin, the same is true for the godfather which makes it a bad movie.Yeha but at least everyone had balls to admit GF3 was bad. ROTK was laughably overrated by everyone at the time because they wanted to believe that each new movie was better than the previous one and now that people have sobered up they cite FOTR or TTT as the best and ROTK as really bloated and the real beginning of Count Bloatula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It does work that way, sometimes. Look at Toy Story.Why should 2011 be up 126%? Only a fraction of all tickets sold are in 3D, the vast majority of movies are in 2D.While the majority of films are in 2D, most of the top earners are 3D.And taking a single film where those calculations work seems a bit far-fetched - what's with Batman Begins / The Dark Knight? With a very stable franchise, like Harry Potter, this might work (and still they decreased). With others, it just gives you a range.Predicting Hobbit was not that difficult, you could start with FotR or RotK and end up with 362mil (FotR) or 415mil (RotK); then add a bit of caution because Hobbit really isn't that epic, and so I came to my range from 350 to 400 which seemed sensible for me. Now it looks as if it's disappointing (from my POV) but it's really not that far behind those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Batman? Have you watched Batman & Robin?While many top earners are in 3D, they still sell only a fraction of total tickets in a given year, plus the 3D share of said movies are less than 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 add a bit of caution because Hobbit really isn't that epic.People overestimate epic. It has to be put in the context of characters to work hence why epic stuff like Battleship, Kingdom of Heaven,etc flopped. If people don`t like the stars (vanilla shit like Borelando and Kitsch) or don`t care for characters (from previous movie or the source from which the movie`s adapted) epic won`t help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yea30% drop sounds abouy rightI don't see any reason why it will drop that much.20% or better I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) I don't see any reason why it will drop that much.20% or better I say.TH? Please drop 30% for worse on Sunday. Edited December 23, 2012 by fishnets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 TH? Please drop 30% for worse on Sunday.Everyone will be on Holiday on Monday..... so Sunday drop should be quite small.IAL dropped 18% on corresponding day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Everyone will be on Holiday on Monday..... so Sunday drop should be quite small.IAL dropped 18% on corresponding day.Fuck, so TH will achieve $40 mio weekend then. I don`t want that to happen. It`s still over 50% drop, way bigger than any LOTR movie`s second weekend drop but I want it to drop harder than even KK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ummm....FRI 10.2SAT 14.3SUN 11.5WKND 36.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jb007 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Fake's projection looks good. TH will get some good grosses over the next two weeks because of the holidays. It should finish around $300M. Given the movie's quality, $300M is good for it.Compared to LOTR grosses, it is an out and out disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ummm....FRI 10.2SAT 14.3SUN 11.5WKND 36.0That would be 57.5% drop, 0.1% better than KK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
