85th Academy Awards (24/2/13) Official Thread- TONIGHT!! NOMINEES IN THE FIRST POST

[riczhang]

Is there "too depressing" for the best documentary Oscar?

 

Well, most of them aren't as despressing as Invisible War. 

[CoolioD1]

They rarely give Oscars for happy and non-political documantaries like Sugar Man (in the last ten years there have been only two)

I see Invisible War winning the award unless the director of 5BC getting mistreated at LAX makes that movie get more votes

This year is the first year that every academy member gets to vote on the category so the populist choice, which would be Sugar Man, is given a stronger chance to win.

 

And that thing that happened to the broken cameras guy, that story broke just after voting closed I think, so no effect.

[riczhang]

Good point. Remember The Cove?

 

Maybe I'm unfeeling, but I found Invisible War to be much, much, much, much more depressing than The Cove. I actually found the Cove to be alright. 

[Jack Nevada]

Well, most of them aren't as despressing as Invisible War. 

Tbh most of them do seem almost as depressing. Even the titles sound miserable: Born into Brothels, Taxi to the Dark Side, Murder on a Sunday Morning, The Fog of War, Hell and Back Again, Deliver Us from Evil..

Edited February 22, 2013 by Jack Nevada

[RichWS]

Maybe I'm unfeeling, but I found Invisible War to be much, much, much, much more depressing than The Cove. I actually found the Cove to be alright. 

 

Watching the mass killing of dolphins couldn't have been a walk in the park for most viewers.

[Jack Nevada]

Maybe Grizzly Man didn't get nominated simply because it wasn't depressing enough. 

[Michael Gary Scott]

That's why king of kong wasn't nominated too upbeat lol

[rockNrollaDIM]

Maybe Grizzly Man didn't get nominated simply because it wasn't depressing enough. 

Grizzly Man sure made me feel depressed and sick..

[The Futurist]

Riva will get her César Award in a few hours, folks.

Edited February 22, 2013 by The Futurist

[Jack Nevada]

Grizzly Man sure made me feel depressed and sick..

Not me. It was an easy watch, though it was pretty unsettling to watch at times. The guy was a complete fucking loon, and I'm so pissed off how he caused the death of that innocent woman.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Not me. It was an easy watch, though it was pretty unsettling to watch at times. The guy was a complete fucking loon, and I'm so pissed off how he caused the death of that innocent woman.

 

Me too. I hated him.

[Jack Nevada]

Me too. I hated him.

Grizzly Man is such an interesting portrait of a deeply disturbed person. He wasn't just a little fucked up in the head, but he was genuinely mentally ill, and badly. 

[acsc1312]

My final predictions:

 

Picture: Argo

Director: Ang Lee- Life of Pi

Actor:  Daniel Day-Lewis- Lincoln

Actress: Jennifer Lawrence- Silver Linings Playbook Alt: Emmanuelle Riva: Amour

Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz- Django Unchained

Actress in a Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway: Les Miserables

Original Screenplay: Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino Alt: Mark Boal: Zero Dark Thirty

Adapted Screenplay: Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell Alt: Argo: Chris Terrio

Animated Feature: Brave

Foreign Language Film: Amour

Cinematography: Life of Pi: Claudio Miranda

Editing: Argo Alt: Zero Dark Thirty

Production Design: Les Miserables

Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Makeup: The Hobbit

Original Score: Life of Pi: Mychael Danna

Original Song: Skyall

Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Sound Editing: Life of Pi

Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

 

Not doing the rest. I only listed alternates in cases which I truly think there's an upset and supporting actor which is completely up in the air.

[riczhang]

Final Predictions: (Please let me beat my record of 20/24 from last year  )

 

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Ang Lee - Life of Pi

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay: Michael Haneke - Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay: Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)

Best Documentary - Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary - Short Subject: Inocente

Best Live Action Short Film: Curfew

Best Animated Short Film: Paperman

Best Original Score: Mychael Danna - Life of Pi

Best Original Song: Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth - "Skyfall" from Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton - Life of Pi

Best Sound Mixing: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes - Les Miserables

Best Production Design: Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robison - Les Miserables

Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell - Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran - Anna Karenina

Best Film Editing: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg - Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer, and Donald R. Elliott - Life of Pi

 

Win Counts:

Life of Pi - 5

Les Miserables - 4

Amour - 3

Anna Karenina - 1

Argo - 1

Beasts of the Southern Wild - 1

Curfew - 1

Inocente - 1

Lincoln - 1

Paperman - 1

Searching for Sugar Man - 1

Silver Linings Playbook - 1

Skyfall - 1

Wreck-It Ralph - 1

Zero Dark Thirty - 1

 

My thoughts on a few categories:

 

 

I'm sticking with Robert De Niro for Best Supporting Actor, because he's last won something like 31 years ago and there's not a particularly strong case for any of the others. Arkin well doesn't deserve to be there. Tommy Lee Jones's chances have been significantly damaged with the fall of Lincoln. Phillip Seymour Hoffman should just be glad that he's been nominated. I suppose Chirstoph Waltz could win, but just 3 years later and in yet another Tarantino film? I think not. That leaves Robert De Niro in a well loved film, and unlike Jennifer Lawrence he really wants it, and he's really due for an award. 

 

In Best Adapted Screenplay, I'm currently predicting Argo, but I think , and strongly suspect, that there will be an upset in this category come Oscar night by Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Beasts of the Southern Wild is essentially the Benh Zeitlin show in which he does everything from writing to scoring to directing. I think that the Academy respects that, especially for a 1st timer, and will reward it somewhere. I think that the most probable (and only probable) category will be Adapted Screenplay. I would've predicted Score for it, but since it got snubbed there that'd be impossible. The fact that most people think the movie is charming, despite my personal thoughts about it, probably doesn't hurt it either. (And I do realise that could mean Argo's going home with nothing but Picture, which isn't impossible. Though the last and only time it's ever happened was Grand Hotel in '32.) 

 

I'm still deliberating in Animated Film. I was adamant that it was Wreck-It Ralph up until last weekend when Brave picked up those two guild wins. Now, they weren't animated film wins, but in a category that the entire Academy membership votes for they were surprising signs of support and strength. However, I began to mull over it and because Brave and Wreck-It Ralph are both 3D CGI animations I came to the conclusion that most of the surge for Brave came at the expense of Wreck-It Ralph. But, since the surge came only a few days before the voting deadline closed I do not think that the surge was enough for Brave to actually pull of a win. So, this means that Brave and Wreck-It Ralph split the votes allowing Frankenweenie to win. But, after some due consideration I arrived back at Wreck-It Ralph winning. I do think that this is probably influence in part (well greatly ) by the fact that Wreck-It Ralph is the only nominee I didn't hate, and actually liked. So, maybe Frankenweenie will take this after all. 

 

For the short film categories. I picked Paperman because it's the most beautiful animation and in a year where there entire Academy membership will vote for this I just went with the prettiest and the one with the most brand recognition. I went with Inocente because it was the one I liked the best, and I've heard some positive feedback from members about it. I chose Curfew for the same reason as I chose Inocente, but I do think that Buzkashi Boys could pull it off here. 

 

Lastly, I arrive at the Best Film Editing category and my boldest prediction of the night. I do believe Zero Dark Thirty will win Best Editing for a number of reasons. The backlash for the film has mostly died down, and some of the backlash, coupled with Bigelow's directing snub, has actually helped the film. I do not believe that most Academy members dislike the film, and many probably admire it from a technical aspect at the very least. I also think that there is will out there to give it at least one Oscar, and if they do a little group think like most of them do, the most logical category would be Editing. Zero Dark Thirty has, in my opinion, by far the flashiest editing of the nominees. It also has the most editing, which many Academy members equate with Best Editing. This is an important thing that many people forget when predicting Oscars. Most Academy members don't know anything about the technical categories, and so therefore equate loudest, biggest, most, flashiest, most apparent, and others with best. I think that Zero Dark Thirty can capitalise on that and go home with at least one Oscar. 

 

 

EDIT: Fuck it. I'm predicting Beasts in Adapted Screenplay.

Edited February 22, 2013 by riczhang

[acsc1312]

Editing is kind of up in the air too. SLP could surprise there because it has really flashy editing.

[Jack Nevada]

Editing is kind of up in the air too. SLP could surprise there because it has really flashy editing.

Nah, Argo's gonna win it

[CoolioD1]

Editing is kind of up in the air too. SLP could surprise there because it has really flashy editing.

The editing of that film actually makes some pretty amateurish mistakes.

[The Futurist]

The editing of that film actually makes some pretty amateurish mistakes.

 

 

[efialtes76]

Final Predictions: (Please let me beat my record of 20/24 from last year  )

 

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Ang Lee - Life of Pi

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay: Michael Haneke - Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay: Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)

Best Documentary - Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary - Short Subject: Inocente

Best Live Action Short Film: Curfew

Best Animated Short Film: Paperman

Best Original Score: Mychael Danna - Life of Pi

Best Original Song: Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth - "Skyfall" from Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton - Life of Pi

Best Sound Mixing: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes - Les Miserables

Best Production Design: Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robison - Les Miserables

Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell - Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran - Anna Karenina

Best Film Editing: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg - Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer, and Donald R. Elliott - Life of Pi

 

Win Counts:

Life of Pi - 5

Les Miserables - 4

Amour - 3

Anna Karenina - 1

Argo - 1

Beasts of the Southern Wild - 1

Curfew - 1

Inocente - 1

Lincoln - 1

Paperman - 1

Searching for Sugar Man - 1

Silver Linings Playbook - 1

Skyfall - 1

Wreck-It Ralph - 1

Zero Dark Thirty - 1

 

My thoughts on a few categories:

 

 

I'm sticking with Robert De Niro for Best Supporting Actor, because he's last won something like 31 years ago and there's not a particularly strong case for any of the others. Arkin well doesn't deserve to be there. Tommy Lee Jones's chances have been significantly damaged with the fall of Lincoln. Phillip Seymour Hoffman should just be glad that he's been nominated. I suppose Chirstoph Waltz could win, but just 3 years later and in yet another Tarantino film? I think not. That leaves Robert De Niro in a well loved film, and unlike Jennifer Lawrence he really wants it, and he's really due for an award. 

 

In Best Adapted Screenplay, I'm currently predicting Argo, but I think , and strongly suspect, that there will be an upset in this category come Oscar night by Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Beasts of the Southern Wild is essentially the Benh Zeitlin show in which he does everything from writing to scoring to directing. I think that the Academy respects that, especially for a 1st timer, and will reward it somewhere. I think that the most probable (and only probable) category will be Adapted Screenplay. I would've predicted Score for it, but since it got snubbed there that'd be impossible. The fact that most people think the movie is charming, despite my personal thoughts about it, probably doesn't hurt it either. (And I do realise that could mean Argo's going home with nothing but Picture, which isn't impossible. Though the last and only time it's ever happened was Grand Hotel in '32.) 

 

I'm still deliberating in Animated Film. I was adamant that it was Wreck-It Ralph up until last weekend when Brave picked up those two guild wins. Now, they weren't animated film wins, but in a category that the entire Academy membership votes for they were surprising signs of support and strength. However, I began to mull over it and because Brave and Wreck-It Ralph are both 3D CGI animations I came to the conclusion that most of the surge for Brave came at the expense of Wreck-It Ralph. But, since the surge came only a few days before the voting deadline closed I do not think that the surge was enough for Brave to actually pull of a win. So, this means that Brave and Wreck-It Ralph split the votes allowing Frankenweenie to win. But, after some due consideration I arrived back at Wreck-It Ralph winning. I do think that this is probably influence in part (well greatly ) by the fact that Wreck-It Ralph is the only nominee I didn't hate, and actually liked. So, maybe Frankenweenie will take this after all. 

 

For the short film categories. I picked Paperman because it's the most beautiful animation and in a year where there entire Academy membership will vote for this I just went with the prettiest and the one with the most brand recognition. I went with Inocente because it was the one I liked the best, and I've heard some positive feedback from members about it. I chose Curfew for the same reason as I chose Inocente, but I do think that Buzkashi Boys could pull it off here. 

 

Lastly, I arrive at the Best Film Editing category and my boldest prediction of the night. I do believe Zero Dark Thirty will win Best Editing for a number of reasons. The backlash for the film has mostly died down, and some of the backlash, coupled with Bigelow's directing snub, has actually helped the film. I do not believe that most Academy members dislike the film, and many probably admire it from a technical aspect at the very least. I also think that there is will out there to give it at least one Oscar, and if they do a little group think like most of them do, the most logical category would be Editing. Zero Dark Thirty has, in my opinion, by far the flashiest editing of the nominees. It also has the most editing, which many Academy members equate with Best Editing. This is an important thing that many people forget when predicting Oscars. Most Academy members don't know anything about the technical categories, and so therefore equate loudest, biggest, most, flashiest, most apparent, and others with best. I think that Zero Dark Thirty can capitalise on that and go home with at least one Oscar. 

 

 

EDIT: Fuck it. I'm predicting Beasts in Adapted Screenplay.

Argo only 1 Oscar?and for Best Movie?

Edited February 22, 2013 by efialtes76

[CoolioD1]

LOL. Seriously. There are some doozies in there, mostly to do with the ADR. there's a weird mismatch sometimes. The fault of both the re-recording artists and the editors, I'm sure.