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April 25 Predictions (for those who can't access my blog)

Thursday schedules

Note: Evangelion 3.0 was released on Wednesday. The number in brackets are its number of Wednesday showings at that theater.
 

Pacific Place    
New Holdovers Leaving
Iron Man 3 3D - 21 showings The Host - 1 showing (▼ 5) Bullet to the Head
  I Give It A Year - 3 showings (▼ 6) Jurassic Park 3D
  Oblivion - 3 showings (▼ 6) Saving General Yang (Put.)
  Finding Mr. Right - 2 showings (▼ 5) GI Joe: Retaliation
  Olympus Has Fallen - 1 showing (▼ 3) The Croods (3D Eng.)

Palace APM    
New Holdovers Leaving
Iron Man 3 3D - 20 showings Drug War - 2 showings (▼ 6) The Host
Iron Man 3 - 7 showings Conspirators - 2 showings (▼ 6) I Give It A Year
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - 7 showings (▼ 10) Oblivion - 1 showing (▼ 7) Saving General Yang (Can.)
  Finding Mr. Right - 2 showings (▼ 6) The Croods (Can.)

The One    
New Holdovers Leaving
Iron Man 3 3D - 23 showings Drug War - 1 showing (▼ 7) The Host
Iron Man 3 - 3 showings Conspirators - 2 showings (▼ 6) I Give It A Year
  Oblivion - 1 showing (▼ 6) Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow?
  Touch of the Light - 1 showing (-) Saving General Yang (Can.)
  Finding Mr. Right - 3 showings (▼ 6) GI Joe: Retaliation
    The Croods (3D Can.)

Langham Place    
New Holdovers Leaving
Iron Man 3 3D - 21 showings Drug War - 6 showings (▼ 7) I Give It A Year
Iron Man 3 - 3 showings Oblivion - 2 showings (▼ 6) Ip Man: The Final Fight
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - 4 showings (-) Conspirators - 5 showings (▼ 6)  
  Seven Psychopaths - 1 showing (▼ 5)  
  Lesson of the Evil - 1 showing (-)  
  The Host - 2 showings (▼ 6)  
  Saving General Yang (Can.) - 1 showing (▼ 2)  
  Finding Mr. Right - 1 showing (-)  

How does that compare to The Avengers' opening Thursday schedules?

Festival Walk: 20 showtimes for Avengers (3D), 32 showtimes for Amazing Spider-Man (27 in 3D), 27 showtimes for Iron Man 3 (23 in 3D)
Palace APM: 27 showtimes for Avengers (24 in 3D), 33 showtimes for Amazing Spider-Man (28 in 3D), 27 showtimes for Iron Man 3 (20 in 3D)

Very good number for Iron Man 3. Compared to other blockbusters, these Iron Man 3 showings are above what the The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises got but below The Amazing Spider-Man's. Evangelion is getting a limited release but strong Wednesday sales lead to the continuation of a full screen at almost all locations. Oblivion and Conspirators are the biggest survivors with Drug War behind them. Finding Mr. Right did ok too keeping most of its screens. Biggest losers are G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Croods, Ip Man: The Final Fight and Saving General Yang.

Another look at Iron Man 3 opening day sales @ Palace APM

Palace APM                  
  Iron Man 3 3D         Iron Man 3      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 25 12:15 AM 92 286 32.17% Apr. 25 10:45 AM 76 114 66.67%
  11:00 AM 66 167 39.52%   12:25 PM 47 112 41.96%
  12:00 PM 40 286 13.99%   1:10 PM 9 114 7.89%
  1:25 PM 13 167 7.78%   3:35 PM 16 114 14.04%
  1:40 PM 4 98 4.08%   7:45 PM 69 98 70.41%
  2:25 PM 41 286 14.34%   10:10 PM 24 98 24.49%
  2:50 PM 4 112 3.57%   12:50 AM 19 167 11.38%
  3:50 PM 8 167 4.79%          
  4:50 PM 68 286 23.78%          
  5:20 PM 23 112 20.54%          
  6:00 PM 7 114 6.14%          
  7:15 PM 159 286 55.59%          
  7:45 PM 67 112 59.82%          
  8:00 PM 95 167 56.89%          
  8:25 PM 51 114 44.74%          
  9:40 PM 160 286 55.94%          
  9:50 PM 20 98 20.41%          
  10:10 PM 27 112 24.11%          
  10:25 PM 28 167 16.77%          
  12:05 AM 58 286 20.28%          
Total   1031 3709 27.80% Total   260 817 31.82%

Just under The Avengers pre-sales. These are pretty good, however, I don't think it will get to 4m. Iron Man 2's walk-ins were pretty bad so I think with these numbers, Iron Man 3 will battle with The Amazing Spider-Man & Harry Potter 7-2's 4-day OW. It could get off to a 40,000 pre-sales start.

__________________________________________________________________________
In other news, Robocop is let out January 30, 2014. It needs to have a strong start in Asia otherwise it is finished. Speaking of Robocop, new article that it's linked in is posted.

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It's so fun to see this when it happens.Posted Image
For those who don't know, The ONE has 6 screens and Iron Man 3 is occupying all of them Friday night.

One last look at Iron Man 3 opening day sales @ Palace APM
Palace APM                  
  Iron Man 3 3D         Iron Man 3      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 25 12:15 AM 97 286 33.92% Apr. 25 10:45 AM 92 114 80.70%
  11:00 AM 79 167 47.31%   12:25 PM 67 112 59.82%
  12:00 PM 43 286 15.03%   1:10 PM 9 114 7.89%
  1:25 PM 13 167 7.78%   3:35 PM 20 114 17.54%
  1:40 PM 4 98 4.08%   7:45 PM 71 98 72.45%
  2:25 PM 45 286 15.73%   10:10 PM 31 98 31.63%
  2:50 PM 5 112 4.46%   12:50 AM 19 167 11.38%
  3:50 PM 9 167 5.39%          
  4:50 PM 72 286 25.17%          
  5:20 PM 23 112 20.54%          
  6:00 PM 15 114 13.16%          
  7:15 PM 165 286 57.69%          
  7:45 PM 67 112 59.82%          
  8:00 PM 100 167 59.88%          
  8:25 PM 61 114 53.51%          
  9:40 PM 164 286 57.34%          
  9:50 PM 26 98 26.53%          
  10:10 PM 31 112 27.68%          
  10:25 PM 28 167 16.77%          
  12:05 AM 64 286 22.38%          
Total   1111 3709 29.95% Total   309 817 37.82%
It moved a bit more from yesterday.

I'm upping Iron Man 3 Thursday pre-sales to 47,000 to account for Wednesday midnights (it'll be included in Thursday's gross) which would be higher than what The Avengers started off with on opening day (without midnights). Something to note, though Transformers 3's midnights started 1 hour earlier, Iron Man 3 has looked a bit better. I'd say $70,000 for Iron Man 3 midnights alone.

 

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Feast your eyes on this...
 

  Thursday adm. (so far)   April 25
Rank Title LW TW % chg
1 Iron Man 3 -- 46,074 --
2 Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo -- 1,586 --
3 Drug War 1,862 439 -76.4%
4 Conspirators 1,314 359 -72.7%
5 Oblivion 2,132 311 -85.4%
6 Finding Mr. Right 656 272 -58.5%
7 We Were There: First Love -- 168 --
8 Tokyo Family 323 154 -52.3%
9 Searching for Sugar Man -- 138 --
10 The Host 905 122 -86.5%

Great beginning but how does that compare to recent hits?

How does these OD pre-sales compare to past blockbusters?

Movie OD admissions % diff
Iron Man 3 46,074  
Iron Man 2 31,977 +44.1%
The Dark Knight Rises 38,750 +18.9%
The Amazing Spider-Man 32,580 +41.4%
The Avengers 47,317 -2.6%
Transformers 3 44,161 +4.3%
Harry Potter 7-2 62,089 -25.8%
Toy Story 3 32,294 +42.7%
Pirates 4 21,559 +113.7%
Shrek 3 49,634 -7.2%

Some comparisons using Iron Man 3 opening day pre-sales

+44% from Iron Man 2's opening day pre-sales.
+125.1% from Thor's opening day
+43.5% from X-Men: First Class' opening day
+206.5% from Green Lantern's opening day
+77.6% from Captain America's opening day

Strong opening for Iron Man 3. That Thursday pre-sales number does include midnights. 44% bigger than IM2 which did not have midnights but it was released on a Friday. 3m OW is locked.

 

Edited by Bluebomb
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Ah thanks. My question just proved that I have no idea about HK box office :lol:But 8M locked. Woohoo B) I hope that WOM is good over there to ensure legs.Has you watched the movie, Bluebomb?

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Feast your eyes on this...

 

  Thursday adm. (so far)   April 25 Rank Title LW TW % chg 1 Iron Man 3 -- 46,074 -- 2 Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo -- 1,586 -- 3 Drug War 1,862 439 -76.4% 4 Conspirators 1,314 359 -72.7% 5 Oblivion 2,132 311 -85.4% 6 Finding Mr. Right 656 272 -58.5% 7 We Were There: First Love -- 168 -- 8 Tokyo Family 323 154 -52.3% 9 Searching for Sugar Man -- 138 -- 10 The Host 905 122 -86.5%

Great beginning but how does that compare to recent hits?

How does these OD pre-sales compare to past blockbusters?

Movie OD admissions % diff Iron Man 3 46,074   Iron Man 2 31,977 +44.1% The Dark Knight Rises 38,750 +18.9% The Amazing Spider-Man 32,580 +41.4% The Avengers 47,317 -2.6% Transformers 3 44,161 +4.3% Harry Potter 7-2 62,089 -25.8% Toy Story 3 32,294 +42.7% Pirates 4 21,559 +113.7% Shrek 3 49,634 -7.2%

Some comparisons using Iron Man 3 opening day pre-sales

+44% from Iron Man 2's opening day pre-sales.

+125.1% from Thor's opening day

+43.5% from X-Men: First Class' opening day

+206.5% from Green Lantern's opening day

+77.6% from Captain America's opening day

Strong opening for Iron Man 3. That Thursday pre-sales number does include midnights. 44% bigger than IM2 which did not have midnights but it was released on a Friday. 3m OW is locked.

 

Wow it's an impressive start :D I'ù gmad to see that :)

By the way Bluebomb, what was the gross of Hong Kong these last years? Is that a fast-growth market?

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9.9M? Wow, it just barely missed 10M  :mellow:

Yes, I remember theaters pushing it hard to make 10m. Too bad it collapsed so fast.

 

DH2's OD shat on everything. That's beautiful.

Hell yes. 85,000+ admissions on a non-holiday opening day? That is ******* insane.

 

$12.5M for TA and $9.9M for DH2.

Thanks.

 

Wow it's an impressive start :D I'ù gmad to see that :)

By the way Bluebomb, what was the gross of Hong Kong these last years? Is that a fast-growth market?

2008 grossed 97.1m only on weekends. 2009 made 113.8m off of its weekends. 2010 moved 121.3m just from its weekends.

 

2011 made 180m total ($1,392,170,518 HK). 2012 jumped 12% from 2011 to over 200m (200.7m - $1,555,691,013 HK).

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Yes, I remember theaters pushing it hard to make 10m. Too bad it collapsed so fast.

 

Hell yes. 85,000+ admissions on a non-holiday opening day? That is ******* insane.

 

Thanks.

 

2008 grossed 97.1m only on weekends. 2009 made 113.8m off of its weekends. 2010 moved 121.3m just from its weekends.

 

2011 made 180m total ($1,392,170,518 HK). 2012 jumped 12% from 2011 to over 200m (200.7m - $1,555,691,013 HK).

 

Thanks :) It's really an impressive growth :o

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Yes. But I attribute the uptick due to much a stronger local lineup. A Simple Life, Love in the Buff, Vulgaria, Cold War all grossed more than 3.5m last year. Local box office is coming back in a big way and doesn't need Stephen Chow's help anymore.

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2 PM Update: Iron Man 3 closing in on 60,000 admissions. It will defeat The Avengers' opening day admissions (- midnights).

Alright, taking a breather from this weekend to focus on the May 1 holiday.

Early pre-sales for Iron Man 3 on May 1 (Wednesday)

Festival Walk        
  Iron Man 3 3D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 27 9:10 AM 99 354 27.97%
  11:40 AM 143 354 40.40%
  2:10 PM 49 354 13.84%
  4:40 PM 64 354 18.08%
  7:10 PM 31 354 8.76%
  9:40 PM 28 354 7.91%
Total   414 2124 19.49%

Palace APM        
  Iron Man 3 3D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 27 9:10 AM 18 286 6.29%
  11:40 AM 87 286 30.42%
  2:10 PM 16 286 5.59%
  4:40 PM 16 286 5.59%
  7:10 PM 14 286 4.90%
  9:40 PM 14 286 4.90%
  12:10 AM 14 286 4.90%
Total   179 2002 8.94%

The One        
  Iron Man 3 3D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 27 9:10 AM 41 163 25.15%
  11:40 AM 93 163 57.06%
  2:10 PM 71 163 43.56%
  4:40 PM 88 163 53.99%
  7:10 PM 59 163 36.20%
  9:40 PM 8 163 4.91%
  12:05 AM 4 163 2.45%
Total   364 1141 31.90%

Outstanding sales at The ONE. Pretty good at Festival Walk. Palace APM not bad either. Huge. I expect over 100,000 adm on Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday.

 

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