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MattW

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Everything posted by MattW

  1. MattW
    True, I know practically nothing about Japan but it does seem to be rather fickle with respect to hollywood movies. Sequels seem to have less consistency there. I guess we'll see.
  2. MattW
    $47m in china last weekend, and now it's at $72m. That's a pretty steep drop. About $10m during the week and $15m over its second weekend. I don't think it'll get much past $90m there, and if it does another 30m in Japan that puts it at about $690m overall meaning it needs 10m from everywhere else which will be tough.
  3. MattW
    350 right now, maybe 15-25m from existing markets plus the few small new ones it has left. $30-40m in Japan and $90-110m in China is what I'm gathering from other threads. $485-525m?
  4. MattW
    I would have said 75-100 but after seeing the first day domestic I have to wonder if it's gonna get anywhere overseas either. I think it'll be lucky to get 50m.
  5. MattW
    Back in Feb I was thinking 240-270 domestic, and 400-450 overseas. OS still seems about right, but I'm less sure about domestic now.
  6. MattW
    Not much to add to what everyone else is saying. Definitely over 700m, probably not over 800m. 750 seems like the safe bet.
  7. MattW
    Is it out of theaters? I haven't seen any change in at least a couple of weeks. Is $454m is the final number?
  8. MattW
    The amount of online traffic for this one is so far ahead of everything else, combined with the inflated ticket prices at some of the thurs shows.... I could see Fault in Stars landing under Divergent just as easily as over it.
  9. MattW
    By the last movie definitely. But I think twilight in 2008 was pretty young. Older than TFIOS, but I doubt by much.
  10. MattW
    The genre not so much, but I think the audience is somewhat comparable.
  11. MattW
    If the thurs night to OW ratio of TFIOS is similar to hunger games, twilight and harry potter: HG1 - 63.5HG2 - 51.2TW2 - 44.5TW4 - 37.4TW5 - 38.14HP7 - 42.7HP8 (yeah right) - 31.9
  12. MattW
    I think 450 is guaranteed, 475 is likely, and 490 is where it starts getting iffy. Domestic should do over 215 I think, and that puts 700m withing spitting distance. Very exciting.
  13. MattW
    Looking at the overseas gross of the top 5-10 movies in 2004-7, then comparing that to 2010-2013, I think 450m in 2014 is about the equivalent of 225m in 2006. So it looks like overseas DoFP will more or less match up with Xmen3 in terms of market share.
  14. MattW
    I think most likely it will do over 400. I'll say $475 million. With a healthy $275m domestic it'll be right around 2012's spiderman. In some ways the trailers make this one look like a get-the-team-together movie, so if they have a really good looking villain for 2016's movie then that one could go big-big with a B.
  15. MattW
    It was at 277 last sunday night, meaning 126m for the last 7 days. 60% drops from here on out gives it about $485m 50% drops from here on out gives it about $530m If this coming week is a 60% drop, then next week is 55%, then 50% from there on out it could do about $495m.
  16. MattW
    Yes. Most predictions I saw had it in the low to mid 300s. I was thinking about $100m less than Thor2.
  17. MattW
    I think somewhere in the 500-550 range. For the sake of naming a single number I'll say $535m.
  18. MattW
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64c6VLNJQiE This latest trailer makes it look pretty good. The CGI water was a little off but still, my expectations are growing. I was thinking somewhere around $400m but now I'm thinking a little more, maybe mid-to-high 400's.
  19. MattW
    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-can-captain-693075 $87.4m through Tuesday. Access Hollywood is full of it with their $100m on Monday night.
  20. MattW
    Probably bad extrapolation; 75m in 3 days, must be 100m in 4. Are overseas numbers for Monday ever reported by Monday night?
  21. MattW
    Yeah, if Japan is the only market it hasn't opened in yet I think a bit over $400m is the most it can hope for, which is still pretty awesome all things considered.
  22. MattW
    I think somewhere between the first Cpt America and the first Thor. $200-250m.
  23. MattW
    I think so you're right. MJ1 will add 50-100m, and MJ2 will add another 75-100m.
  24. MattW
    I'm thinking a hair under $400m. It has potential but there are so many other established properties opening around it that I don't see it doing that much more than pacific rim.
  25. MattW
    It'll see some growth but nothing crazy. I'm gonna go with $375m overseas.
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