Actuals: http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/news/2015-05-04-china-box-office-weekend-actuals-furious-7-takes-victory-lap-as-it-nears-400m-fourth-weekend-at-1-silent-separation-close-second-home-holds-strong-over-holiday
They have it at $370.21m instead of yesterday's 381
That's why you cut out the midnights and the thursday previews. True opening day numbers are from when the theater opens on that day (10 or 11am or so for most places) until closing which is after midnight saturday.
Including midnights in the friday number means your "Friday" is actually 27 hours long or so. So having showtimes start at 7pm really is just 5 extra hours, not 8 extra hours.
http://www.thewrap.com/avengers-age-of-ultron-on-pace-to-smash-box-office-records-with-over-210-million-opening-weekend/
"It’s on pace to make $97 million for Friday alone."
Using the "official" friday number is kind of silly IMO. Should be breaking it up into Thursday and Friday.
Avengers = 18.7 + 62.114 + 69.558 + 57.067
AOU current "Friday" estimates:
85 = 27.6 + 57.4
87 = 27.6 + 59.4
89 = 27.6 + 61.4
90 = 27.6 + 62.4
(98 = 27.6 + 70.4 Variety said it, not me)
Here's why it's kind of disappointing to me:
TDK did 18.5, TDKR did 30.5, both with proper midnights. Avengers is even bigger and the sequel gets an extra 5 hours of shows and increases less.
Of course TDKR's marketing was amazing and AOU's hasn't been as good.
I don't think it's a binary choice. It's like describing a data set by using just the mean, or using the mean and the median, or both those and the standard deviation. With box office you use the worldwide number of you're only going to use one number to describe a movies performance. If two then domestic and overseas. But the more numbers you use the more accurately you can describe it and China is the logical choice for the next part to separate out as an additional descriptor.
The Deadline most profitable of 2014 estimated domestic take at 51% and overseas at 39%, but if my memory serves the WB documents on the money-losing harry potter movie had it at more like 56% and 46%.
$735m overseas
I'm guessing that includes China's Friday number. $548m through Sunday, $120m more from china through Friday, Rth said that Monday everywhere else was 14m, that leaves 53m for Tue, Wed, Thu everywhere else which seems like a lot given monday. I think there's a bit of number smudging going on to get past the line.
I was taking Rth's 43m as the total overseas which would be 29 China plus 14 everywhere else like Ed# said. 14m seems like a reasonable drop from Monday last week.
Through Sunday 550m, Monday 29+14, Tues 26+ at least 10, Wed 22+10, Thurs 20+10 or more.
Total through Thurs should be around 690m. Domestic will be ~265 with WW at 950 or more.
Is this a possibility or a probability? I read an article about china's view of american movies as propaganda negatively affecting their culture or something like that, so it certainly makes sense that they would limit things (and TF4 had more than a few positive spins on china, example, having it make sense that they "allowed" it to do so well).
195 this weekend, 548 total, that means before the weekend it was at 353m.
Pre-OW: 60
OW: 185
Mon-Thurs: 108
2nd wknd: 109.5 + 85.5 (existing + new)
Existing might end up with 650-700?
It seems the consensus on china is 250 or more.
The rest maybe 50 or more.
Reasonable low end to me looks like 900. High end possibly up to 1075. You can say Paul Walker was a factor on the domestic side, but overseas it's just good marketing and a movie that really delivers blockbuster spectacle and fun.
2nd weekend drop after removing opening Thursday was extremely close for the last 3. Only 6 is slightly worse because of a better Sunday due to memorial day.
(I did this early last friday)