mahnamahna

12/18-12/20 Star Wars Episode VII: $270.5 million Sisters: $16.5 million Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $13 million Creed: $6 million ($88 million) The Good Dinosaur: $5.5 million ($96 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $4.5 million ($251 million) Krampus: $4 million ($34 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $3 million ($16 million) The Night Before: $2.5 million ($42 million) Spotlight: $2 million ($23 million) 12/25-12/27 Star Wars Episode VII: $150 million ($541 million) Daddy's Home: $32 million Sisters: $18 million ($49 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $17 million ($46 million) Joy: $13 million The Big Short: $11.5 million ($17 million) The Good Dinosaur: $9 million ($113 million) Concussion: $8.5 million Creed: $8 million ($103 million) Spotlight: $6 million ($31 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $5 million ($261 million) Point Break: $4 million Brooklyn: $3.5 million ($21 million) Krampus: $3 million ($40 million) The Night Before: $2 million ($47 million) 1/1-1/3 Star Wars Episode VII: $109 million ($770 million) Daddy's Home: $26 million ($85 million) Sisters: $14.5 million ($80 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $13 million ($76 million) The Big Short: $9.5 million ($36 million) Joy: $9 million ($35 million) The Good Dinosaur: $8 million ($130 million) Creed: $7 million ($118 million) Spotlight: $6.5 million ($44 million) Concussion: $6 million ($23 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $4 million ($270 million) Brooklyn: $3 million ($28 million) Point Break: $3 million ($11 million) Krampus: $2 million ($44 million) The Night Before: $1.5 million ($50 million)

$34 million OW $95 million DOM Dory before, Pets the week after... BFG really has no shot at a leggy run in its current spot. If Disney had just released Jungle Book in October 2015, they could have given April 8 or 15 to BFG - perfect spot for a mid-level fantasy adventure.

$270 million DOM OW $950 million DOM $2.7 billion WW

Daddy's Home. It'll be the first alternative if SW7 sells out for most families, since it looks slightly more interesting for adults/teens/kids over the age of 10 than Alvin 4 It's the kind of film that does $75 million+ DOM during Christmas time. (Parental Guidance, Little Fockers, Meet the Fockers, Cheaper by the Dozen 1 and 2, Bedtime Stories, etc). The last time this kind of movie did sub-$75 million during Christmas was... Fat Albert. I also think Revenant and Hateful Eight won't be hurt by SW7 at all due to Oscar buzz and their R ratings. Sisters/Alvin 4 should be successful, too. My guess for the top 12 December 2015 releases Star Wars Episode VII: $875 million The Hateful Eight: $150 million Daddy's Home: $130 million Sisters: $105 million The Revenant: $90 million Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $80 million Joy: $55 million Krampus: $45 million Concussion: $40 million In the Heart of the Sea: $35 million The Big Short: $30 million Point Break: $15 million

12/11-12/13 Mockingjay Part 2: $15 million ($250 million) Creed: $14 million ($86 million) The Good Dinosaur: $13.5 million ($93 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $13 million Krampus: $11 million ($33 million) The Night Before: $4.5 million ($39 million) Spectre: $4 million ($190 million) Spotlight: $3.5 million ($21 million) Brooklyn: $3 million ($15 million) The Peanuts Movie: $2.5 million ($124 million) 12/18-12/20 Star Wars Episode VII: $304 million Sisters: $16 million Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $13 million Creed: $8 million ($98 million) The Good Dinosaur: $6.5 million ($102 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $5 million ($258 million) Krampus: $3.5 million ($39 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $3 million ($18 million) Spotlight: $2.5 million ($25 million) The Night Before: $2 million ($42 million) 12/25-12/27 Star Wars Episode VII: $160.5 million ($592 million) Daddy's Home: $30.5 million Sisters: $18 million ($50 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $16.5 million ($45 million) Joy: $13 million Concussion: $11 million Creed: $10 million ($117 million) The Good Dinosaur: $9 million ($119 million) The Big Short: $6 million ($11 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $5.5 million ($269 million) Point Break: $4 million Spotlight: $3.5 million ($31 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $2.5 million ($23 million) 1/1-1/3 Star Wars Episode VII: $109 million ($819 million) Daddy's Home: $25 million ($86 million) Sisters: $14.5 million ($80 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $12 million ($73 million) Joy: $11 million ($37 million) Creed: $10.5 million ($138 million) Concussion: $8 million ($30 million) The Good Dinosaur: $7.5 million ($135 million) The Big Short: $5 million ($22 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $4.5 million ($279 million) Spotlight: $4 million ($39 million) Point Break: $2.5 million ($10 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $2 million ($28 million) 1/8-1/10 Star Wars Episode VII: $52 million ($902 million) The Hateful Eight: $37 million ($42 million) The Revenant: $22 million ($24 million) Daddy's Home: $13 million ($104 million) The Forest: $8 million Sisters: $7.5 million ($92 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $6.5 million ($82 million) Creed: $6 million ($148 million) Joy: $5 million ($45 million) The Good Dinosaur: $4 million ($140 million) Concussion: $3.5 million ($35 million) Spotlight: $3 million ($43 million) 1/15-1/17 13 Hours: $42.5 million/$53 million Star Wars Episode VII: $38 million/$46.5 million ($967 million) Ride Along 2: $33 million/$39 million The Hateful Eight: $28 million/$33.5 million ($84 million) The Revenant: $14 million/$17 million ($48 million) Daddy's Home: $9.5 million/$12 million ($117 million) The 5th Wave: $9 million/$11 million Norm of the North: $7 million/$9 million Spotlight: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($51 million) Creed: $5 million/$6 million ($157 million) Sisters: $4 million/$5 million ($99 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $3.5 million/$5 million ($87 million) 1/22-1/24 Star Wars Episode VII: $23.5 million ($1 billion) 13 Hours: $20 million ($83 million) The Hateful Eight: $16 million ($105 million) Ride Along 2: $15 million ($61 million) Dirty Grandpa: $9.5 million The Revenant: $8.5 million ($59 million) The Boy: $5.5 million Daddy's Home: $5 million ($123 million) Norm of the North: $4.5 million Spotlight: $4 million ($56 million) The 5th Wave: $3.5 million ($16 million) Creed: $3 million ($161 million) 1/29-1/31 Kung Fu Panda 3: $52 million The Finest Hours: $16.5 million Star Wars Episode VII: $16 million ($1.024 billion) The Hateful Eight: $12 million ($123 million) 13 Hours: $10.5 million ($99 million) Fifty Shades of Black: $8 million Ride Along 2: $7 million ($72 million) The Revenant: $6.5 million ($69 million) Lights Out: $5.5 million Spotlight: $4.5 million ($62 million) Dirty Grandpa: $4 million ($16 million)

Adjusted predicts $14 million OW $65 million DOM Good reviews would get it $20-25 million OW, but the reception makes it look rough. Bodes well for the other Oscar contenders in January/February

(in order of DOM gross) Star Wars Episode VII: $550 million+ DOM (being extra conservative!) Inside Out: $355 million The Martian: $230 million Mad Max - Fury Road: $155 million Creed: $145 million The Hateful Eight: $135 million The Revenant: $80 million Bridge of Spies: $75 million Spotlight: $40 million Brooklyn/Carol/Room: $? million Mad Max and Creed are wild-cards.

Updated below

Sub-50% would be better than Blind Side over the same frame. Should hold well even against SW7 due to WOM and its Oscar buzz. $13 million ($83 million) $8 million ($95 million) $10.5 million ($114 million) $9 million ($133 million) $5 million ($141 million) $4 million/$5 million ($148 million) $2.5 million ($151 million) $2 million ($154 million) $1.25 million ($156 million) $1 million ($157 million) $160-162 million DOM Of course, I'm also predicting a tiny drop next week, a sub-50% drop against SW7 and a solid increase over Christmas but if Jordan and Stallone get some Oscar buzz, I could see it legging its way to $140-160 million DOM.

More like: Finding Dory - November 2015 The Good Dinosaur - March 2016 Zootopia - June 2016 Finding Dory would have been a surefire hit, even with MJ2 and SW7 as competition. Good Dinosaur would benefit from no other kids movies to compete with. Zootopia has enough buzz to do well even in a competitive June 2016 slot if it's a funny, inventive caper.

Possible BP nominees (in no particular order): Spotlight Carol Inside Out Joy Bridge of Spies The Martian Creed Star Wars - Episode VII: The Force Awakens The Revenant The Hateful Eight

Or Creed if it does $18-20 million this weekend. Even MJ2. All three could be above $15 million next week due to nothing substantial coming out Meanwhile WB prepares for the inevitable $12-15 million OW... if it finishes 4th with Star Wars the weekend after it may finish at only $30-35 million DOM.

With a 43% drop too! It's not Christmas themed, so a sub-50% drop over the post-Thanksgiving frame would be phenomenal. Not to mention it should hold well next weekend before Star Wars takes most screens from everything, even Heart of the Sea (which normally would keep its screens in the 2nd weekend) Could it still leg its way past $200 million?

Toy Story 2 Toy Story Inside Out Toy Story 3 The Incredibles Monsters, Inc. Finding Nemo A Bug's Life Up Cars Monsters University WALL-E Ratatouille The Good Dinosaur Cars 2 Brave

I was just projecting the best case scenario for MJ2 at this point. 3-5% chance of happening . I'm thinking $305-310 million personally. I don't see it happening, but if it does $25-26 million this next weekend (50-52% drop), $320 million+ DOM is a possibility.

Because it had a better 2nd weekend hold than MJ1. And also, it's made less than MJ1 so far, so a 50-55% drop isn't that unreasonable. $22.5 million would give MJ2 a 57-58% drop. Not that hard to achieve.

The good thing is that MJ2 will only continue to improve its legs. Should have a slightly softer post-Thanksgiving drop and a better pre-Star Wars hold the following weekend. $25 million ($236 million) $19 million ($264 million) $7 million ($275 million) $10 million ($294 million) $8.5 million ($312 million) $4.5 million ($319 million) $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($323 million) $1.5 million ($326 million) $1 million ($327 million) $330-333 million seems to be the best case scenario for MJ2. Worst-case... $280-300 million DOM, which still beats the other 3 for best legs. a 3.3x would be extremely impressive. I expect $300 million DOM+ as long as its next two weekends are stronger than MJ2's. Even with MJ2 losing a lot of screens to SW7, it'll still have the standard Christmas/New Year's bump to help it rebound. So I don't think SW7 will completely destroy its legs... however it will prevent it from passing MJ1.

No... It's a low-key, G-rated comedy starring Charlie Brown. It was never meant to be a $200 million+ grosser - regardless of SW7. Even without SW7, it would probably end up at $150-170 million DOM. It may have had a mild effect, but definitely not enough to boost Peanuts' final DOM by $65 million+. Spectre and Peanuts would have performed marginally better at best ($15-25 million more for each... definitely not enough to call it a drastic improvement) if SW7 were releasing at another date.

Krampus: $13 million The Letters: $2 million

Spectre? No, that was middling reception, the lack of 50th and Adele, and a muted marketing campaign by Sony. Universal or WB probably could have gotten it to $230-260 million DOM with their marketing departments. Peanuts? No, that was HT2 and Goosebumps reducing the need for a family film at the beginning of November. Plus, as a low-key, easy-going G-rated comedy, $125-135 million DOM is about as much as you could reasonably expect. The 33/Love the Coopers? No, that was both looking like Redbox/Netflix fodder Mockingjay Part 2? Actually, a little bit. Lionsgate's marketing efforts weren't awful, but SW7's October/November advance ticket sales definitely detracted from MJ2's hype. It could very well end up legging its way past $300 million DOM despite the muted OW. Night Before? A little bit. Seth Rogen targets a lot of the 20/30 something males that will want to see SW7. Good Dinosaur? Definitely. Disney's almost treating GD as a write-off while they go full-force into SW7's marketing campaign. Victor Frankenstein? It would have done $6-8 million max even without SW7 Creed? NO. It's potentially looking at a $150 million+ DOM total if it becomes an Oscar contender. So SW7 is affecting Night Before, MJ2's OW (but not necessarily its legs) and Good Dinosaur. However, Spectre and Peanuts definitely came close to their realistic max potential. And Creed is becoming a big hit despite SW7.

Too bad Creed's chances at a BP nomination seem to be very low

There's still a chance at finishing $175 million+ for GD. $20 million ($81 million) - softer OW allows slightly better hold than other Thanksgiving openers $17.5 million ($104 million) - no competition + calm before SW7 $11 million ($119 million) - SW7 sellouts + double features should help it hold best against SW7 compared to MJ2, Heart of the Sea, etc. $15 million ($148 million) - Christmas boost $13 million ($176 million) - New Year's boost $7 million ($187 million) - standard post-holiday drop $5 million/$7 million ($195 million) - MLK $3 million ($199 million) - post-MLK drop $7-10 million in dollar-theater Now I'm being EXTREMELY generous with holds, but even with heavier drops, $170-180 million is still achievable. I wouldn't say it's finished.

12/4-12/6 Mockingjay Part 2: $25 million ($235 million) The Good Dinosaur: $20 million ($82 million) Creed: $17 million ($68 million) Krampus: $13 million Spectre: $6.5 million ($186 million) The Night Before: $5.5 million ($32 million) The Peanuts Movie: $4.5 million ($122 million) Spotlight: $2.5 million ($16 million) Brooklyn: $2 million ($10 million) Love the Coopers: $2 million ($23 million) 12/11-12/13 In the Heart of the Sea: $28 million Mockingjay Part 2: $18.5 million ($263 million) The Good Dinosaur: $17.5 million ($105 million) Creed: $14 million ($89 million) Krampus: $9.5 million ($27 million) Spectre: $5 million ($194 million) The Night Before: $4.5 million ($39 million) Spotlight: $4 million ($21 million) Brooklyn: $3.5 million ($14 million) The Peanuts Movie: $3 million ($126 million) 12/18-12/20 Star Wars Episode VII: $228 million Sisters: $12.5 million Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $11.5 million The Good Dinosaur: $10 million ($119 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $9 million ($43 million) Creed: $8 million ($102 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $7 million ($274 million) Krampus: $5.5 million ($36 million) Spotlight: $3 million ($25 million) The Night Before: $2.5 million ($43 million) 12/25-12/27 Star Wars Episode VII: $139 million ($481 million) Daddy's Home: $25 million Joy: $21.5 million Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $17 million ($42 million) Sisters: $15 million ($41 million) The Good Dinosaur: $14.5 million ($147 million) Creed: $10 million ($121 million) Concussion: $8.5 million Mockingjay Part 2: $8 million ($289 million) The Big Short: $7.5 million ($15 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $6 million ($54 million) Point Break: $4.5 million 1/1-1/3 Star Wars Episode VII: $106 million ($697 million) Daddy's Home: $21 million ($72 million) Joy: $18 million ($60 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $15 million ($74 million) Sisters: $12 million ($67 million) The Good Dinosaur: $11.5 million ($171 million) Creed: $10.5 million ($143 million) Concussion: $6.5 million ($23 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $6 million ($303 million) The Big Short: $5.5 million ($28 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $4 million ($64 million) Point Break: $2.5 million ($9 million) 1/8-1/10 Star Wars Episode VII: $51 million ($776 million) The Hateful Eight: $32 million ($36 million) The Revenant: $22 million ($25 million) Daddy's Home: $11 million ($88 million) Joy: $10.5 million ($76 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $8 million ($85 million) The Forest: $7 million Sisters: $6 million ($76 million) The Good Dinosaur: $5.5 million ($179 million) Creed: $5 million ($151 million) 1/15-1/18 13 Hours: $41 million/$52 million Star Wars Episode VII: $36 million/$46 million ($840 million) Ride Along 2: $32 million/$39 million The Hateful Eight: $22 million/$27 million ($74 million) The Revenant: $16.5 million/$20 million ($53 million) The 5th Wave: $9.5 million/$11.5 million Joy: $8.5 million/$10 million ($90 million) Daddy's Home: $8 million/$10 million ($101 million) Norm of the North: $7 million/$9 million Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $5 million/$6.5 million ($92 million) The Good Dinosaur: $4 million/$5.5 million ($181 million) Sisters: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($82 million) Creed: $4 million/$5 million ($158 million) 1/22-1/24 Star Wars Episode VII: $23.5 million ($873 million) 13 Hours: $22 million ($82 million) Ride Along 2: $15 million ($60 million) The Hateful Eight: $13 million ($92 million) The Revenant: $10.5 million ($67 million) Dirty Grandpa: $8.5 million Joy: $5.5 million ($97 million) The Boy: $5 million The 5th Wave: $4.5 million ($19 million) Daddy's Home: $3.5 million ($105 million) 1/29-1/31 Kung Fu Panda 3: $56 million The Finest Hours: $20.5 million Star Wars Episode VII: $16 million ($897 million) 13 Hours: $12 million ($100 million) The Hateful Eight: $10.5 million ($108 million) The Revenant: $9 million ($81 million) Lights Out: $8.5 million Ride Along 2: $8 million ($72 million) Fifty Shades of Black: $6.5 million Joy: $4.5 million ($104 million) 2/5-2/7 Kung Fu Panda 3: $30 million ($96 million) Hail Caesar!: $21.5 million Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $11 million The Choice: $10.5 million The Finest Hours: $10 million ($36 million) Star Wars Episode VII: $9.5 million ($912 million) The Hateful Eight: $6.5 million ($118 million) 13 Hours: $5.5 million ($109 million) The Revenant: $5 million ($89 million) Joy: $3 million ($108 million) 2/12-2/15 Deadpool: $47.5 million/$60 million Zoolander 2: $33 million/$41 million Kung Fu Panda 3: $25 million/$31.5 million ($135 million) How to Be Single: $20.5 million/$26 million Hail Caesar!: $14 million/$17.5 million ($46 million) The Choice: $9 million/$10.5 million ($26 million) Star Wars Episode VII: $7.5 million/$9 million ($924 million) Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $7 million/$8 million ($23 million) The Finest Hours: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($45 million) THe Hateful Eight: $5 million/$6 million ($126 million) The Revenant: $4 million/$4.75 million ($96 million) Joy: $4 million/$4.75 million ($115 million) 13 Hours: $3 million/$3.75 million ($114 million) 2/19-2/21 Risen: $28.5 million Deadpool: $21 million ($91 million) Zoolander 2: $16 million ($64 million) Kung Fu Panda 3: $14 million ($152 million) Race: $12 million How to Be Single: $9 million ($38 million) Hail Caesar!: $8 million ($58 million) Star Wars Episode VII: $5 million ($930 million) Shut In: $4.5 million The Choice: $4 million ($31 million) 2/26-2/28 Gods of Egypt: $21 million Risen: $19 million ($57 million) Deadpool: $11 million ($107 million) Zoolander 2: $10 million ($79 million) Kidnap: $8 million Race: $7 million ($23 million) Hail Caesar!: $5.5 million ($66 million) How to Be Single: $5 million ($45 million) Tripe 9: $4 million Star Wars Episode VII: $3.5 million ($935 million) 3/4-3/6 Zootopia: $57.5 million London Has Fallen: $16 million Me Before You: $12.5 million Risen: $12 million ($76 million) Gods of Egypt: $8 million ($34 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $6.5 million Deadpool: $6 million ($117 million) Zoolander: $4.5 million ($87 million) Hail Caesar!: $4 million ($73 million) Race: $4 million ($29 million) 3/11-3/13 Zootopia: $38 million ($111 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $17 million The Other Side of the Door: $11 million The Young Messiah: $10.5 million London Has Fallen: $7 million ($28 million) Me Before You: $6 million ($23 million) Risen: $5.5 million ($85 million) Valencia: $5 million Deadpool: $3.5 million ($123 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3 million ($11 million) 3/18-3/20 Allegiant: $38 million Miracles From Heaven: $27.5 million Zootopia: $25.5 million ($152 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $8 million ($31 million) The Young Messiah: $5.5 million ($20 million) The Other Side of the Door: $4.5 million ($19 million) London Has Fallen: $4 million ($35 million) Me Before You: $3.5 million ($29 million) Risen: $3 million ($90 million) Valencia: $2.5 million ($9 million) 3/25-3/27 Batman Vs. Superman: $168 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $21.5 million Miracles From Heaven: $21 million ($64 million) Zootopia: $17 million ($181 million) Allegiant: $13 million ($61 million) The Young Messiah: $4 million ($27 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $3 million ($36 million) The Other Side of the Door: $2 million ($22 million) Risen: $2 million ($94 million) London Has Fallen: $1.5 million ($37 million)

No. 1.4 5 5 11.5 10.5 7 40.4 for the 5 day Should hold better today and Sunday than Good Dinosaur or MJ2 since it's not targeting teens/kids Great for all 3

14 11 22 20 11 Could have a $78 million 5 day. Not bad for MJ2. Should be able to leg its way to $275-305 million