langer

I wonder if it has to do with TFA being released in December... All movies fall after New Year...it's not SW-specific.

Inb4 BKB post about OW, DOM ,WW gross as well as a bunch of GIF of sad Batfleck.

First bold part shows some Kalogical thinking. Second part is a nice use of the strawman fallacy.

Probably around 300M, I believe it would have gotten the same gross.

same gross that they had, with lower OWs for both

700M$ expected for TFA in December after a 250M$ OW...really? 2,8X multi in December....really? Talk about nonsense...

I'm not into animation, so it will be a short list. 1. South Park 2. Shrek 3. Wreck it Ralph 4. The Incredibles 5. Despicable Me 6. Monster Inc. 7. Toy Story 1 8. UP 9. Shrek 2 10. The LEGO movie 11. Wall-E 12. Big Hero 6 13. Titan A.E. 14. The Simpsons Movie 15. Finding Nemo

If you find it remarkable that TFA didn't drop like a rock after its huge OW, good for you. I showed that JW and Avengers didn't drop like rocks like most other May and June movies despite having huge OW. While having longer legs is easier when you open to below 40M$, setting OW record is not a guarantee of Friday the 13th legs. Come on guys...the worst December movie has similar legs to Captain America The Winter Soldier. Was that impressive for The Day The Earth Stood Still? 248M$ OW : remarkable 937M$ DOM : remarkable 3,7X multi : good, but not remarkable

All right, if you can't compare to other December openings, what comparison do YOU use to state that TFA's multi is remarkable? Keeping in mind I just showed you that on average, December movies have a 3,5X multi while May/June movies have a 2,55X multi. On this basis, shouldn't TFA have a 4X to 4,1X multi to at least match Avengers and JW?

Yeah I'm splitting hair, I'm saying TFA's multi is above average, but not remarkable. Semantics. I'm using the last 10 years basically for data. I am Legend did 3,3X TH1 did 3,6X TH2 did 3,5X A 3X multi in December is pretty bad - Ocean's 12 (3,23X), Golden Compass (2,8X) and The Day the Earth Stood Still (2,6X) kinda run. If most people were expecting that, they only had to look at the data too see they were lowballing it.

To call something remarkable, you have to compare it to something unremarkable. If you can't compare it to something released in the same period, then you have to compare it to something as big that was released in a different period, but you have to adjust for December holidays to make a good comparison. There are arguably only 3 movies that opened on the scale of TFA : JW (June - 3,13X multi), Avengers (May - 3,01X multi) and AoU (May - 2,40X multi). May mid size blockbuster movies get on average 2,5X multipliers (excluding Wed/thurs release), making AoU below average, but not bad, while Avengers is considered great. Remarkable for May is over 3,25X (SM1, ST09). June mid size blockbuster movies get on average 2,6X multi (excluding Wed/Thurs releases) for live action and 3,5X multi for animation. This makes JW's multi a remarkable one for a live action movie, but average for all movies which we know we shouldn't compare live action to animation, so we won't say JW's multi was average. December mid size blockbuster movies get on average (excluding Avatar and Wednesday releases) 3,7X multi and 3,5X multi if we exclude also Narnia. This makes TFA's multi an above average multiplier, but not a remarkable one. What was remarkable about TFA was the OW, its legs were standard.

For December, it's standard though. A bad multiplier for mid-December is 3 - 3,25X.

Exactly.

TFA had a standard mid December multiplier. Anything over 4,25X would have been remarkable IMO... Semantics I guess.

Biggest drops (either $ or %) Independence Day : From 306M$ to 103M$ Alice in Wonderland : From 334M$ to 77M$ TMNT : From 191M$ to 82M$ Allegiant : From 130M$ to 66M$ NYSM : From 118M$ to 65M$ Ice Age : From 161M$ to 62M$ Neighbors : From 150M4 to 55M$ MBFGW : From 241M$ to 60M$ (don't think anyone was expecting anything close to the original on this though...) Huntsman : From 155M$ to 48M$ GND : From 61M4 to 21M$ Batman (from TDKR) : From 448M$ to 330M$

2016 saw a bunch of sequels/reboot and the majority of them ended up grossing less than their previous entry. What do you consider is the worst performance for a sequel DOM so far this year?

By the way, I've kept a monthly chart of most franchise and standalone blockbuster movies going back to September 2015 to see how these movies grow in terms of $ (rounded to the million $) even when they are not making the top 30. If you guys have any questions about trends, growth and sequel bumps effect, don't hesitate to ask.

I think so yeah, at least matching them. Minions and IO are at 108-109M$ at the moment 6 months after their release, while Lego stands at 124M$, 2 years after its release. Lego was at 105M$ 6 months into its release after both Black Friday and Christmas boosts. Lego also received a BF boost in its 2nd year of release. Zootopia is running slightly ahead of Lego on Blu Ray but has a 30%+ lead on DVD (64M$ combined for Zoo vs 57M$ for Lego after 3 weeks). It should stay in the top 30 charts until BF and Christmas and I don't think competition (FD - SLOP) will hurt it too much. Minions will receive a sequel boost next year with DM3. Zootopia has to pass it before then. I believe Zootopia, IO and Minions will all be around 115M$ after Christmas.

Just saying that the week to week comparison will not work until the 4th week for Minions. Inside Out also had Black Friday on its 4th week and Christmas boost on its 7th end 8th week. Comparisons with these movies for total units after 10+ weeks makes sense while doing week-to-week will not show the true story because of the different release dates. Chances are good that Zootopia will have a BF boost in November too, 5 months into its HV run. I believe Zootopia will end up beating these two movies in terms of $.

Just note that Minions first two weeks were the last two weeks leading to Christmas. It crashed 84-87% on its 4th week.

Looks like Zootopia is following The Lego Movie on the Blu Ray sales in terms of $, but it's currently 70% ahead in terms of units. This means Lego Blu rays sold for 35 $ / unit while Zootopia is around 21 $ / unit. On the other hand, Lego's DVD were sold at 15 $ / unit while Zootopia are being sold at 20$ / unit on average according to The Numbers. While the sequel to TMNT has been very soft compared to the reboot, it has had an impact on the HV sales of the latter, pushing it from 95M$ in combined sales to 98M$ as of June 26th. Should probably be enough to tip it over to 100M$ by the end of the year. With 82M$ DOM in its theatrical release, a 3rd movie is unlikely though.

Saw it yesterday with a huge crowd of 5 at a 9:45 showing. Definitely weaker than the first which was a solid B+ for me. The hitman portion of the movie is good and "believable". The love story and the plot about tricking him into doing these hits is simply not working. This makes it a C movie for me. Tommy Lee Jones has a weird role in this. Still not sure if I like it or not. Would be surprised if they ever do a third one.

The real question is : does William Hurt have a cameo in this as General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross? Please keep this on topic guys.

It could turn out like Dinner for Schmuks though...

Nice to see Star Wars still in the top 10 nearly half a year after its release.