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dxmatrixdt

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  1. Unsane and Midnight Sun had about three showings per venue in the listings. Varied from 1 - 5 showings per location. They might be scheduled after early discount times and get a limited number of discount weekdays. approximately 2,000 venues for each film. The demand per time of the day might carry over to week 3, but 4-5 new films might be previewing in days.
  2. The Hurricane Heist Entertainment Studi…$30,211 -71% 36 $839 $6,084,464 (week #4) That is a decent average for the fourth weekend. I assume it is still full price for this one.
  3. I was going to see Strangers, but with the busses I was 40 min late. I am postponing RP1. Love, Simon was showing right away but I opted out of the 20 minutes of waiting for previews and went late to Tomb Raider instead.
  4. you still have to be 18 for that? Cigs 21 now, right?
  5. is Midnight Sun worth the stress of commute and paying full price, or has it been in the stock room too long?
  6. should I go to Midnight Sun or Love, Simon? Red Sparrow and Thoroughbreds were the last human-relations-personable-based concept films i've been to. I liked them both.
  7. High concept that can fit into the title tend to be really good for the box office, horror can do really well, trailers are good, reviews are great (still at a 100% RT), it is a studio release with a massive marketing + massive theater count, Blunt-Krasinski couple is a nice +, PG-13 rating, nice tracking: I thought Strangers: Prey at Night has one of the best simple and catchy titles of the year and that only opened to 10.4. It looks like Quiet Place could open in 1,000 more spots than Strangers did, but I only see this doing half of The Girl on the Train numbers.
  8. I doubt Quiet Place makes that much. I am putting 20M for my derby, and I will not budge higher. As a matter of fact, I should drop it down to 10.
  9. Mondays drop should be soft. only up to 50% for most movies... Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday's drops should be the same as last week. Ready Player One could look like... 15.2 - Fri 15.2 - Sat 11.0 - Sun 5.5 - Mon Tuesday. pretend Monday is -70% range and jump Tuesday up 1/3. 4.4 - Tues 3.3 - Weds 3.3 - Thurs
  10. huge jumps for Gnomes and Wrinkle. Comparisons have animated/kids/family dropping terribly over Easter weekend. Sat/Sat ratio is usually 0.5 Tomb Raider must not be getting much extra for shared drive-in screens with RP1.
  11. double last night's PTA to get 9.1 million and a full daily # of 12.845. double todays PTA, 4x last night previews for Friday. 18.2 Friday, 48.5 3-day, 61.5 total after Sunday.
  12. gonna have to get 3 different atomic clocks for those final few seconds
  13. Next Week Ready Player One - Quiet Place - 22.00 - 22.00 Blockers - 20.00 - 20.00 Uprising - 6.85 - Imagine - 6.67 Panther - 6.65 - 660.00 Acrimony - 6.32 - Gnomes - 4.37 Miracle - 4.00 Dogs - 3.67 - 7.00 Love - 2.92 - Tomb - 2.68 - GND3 - 2.13 Time - 1.63 - Paul - 1.58 - 14.43 Game - 1.33 - 67.42 Rabbit - 1.02 - 111.86 Midnight Sun - 0.77 - 9.59 Unsane - 0.71 - 8.94 Showman - 0.33 - 172.69 Annihilation - 0.30 - 32.73 Jumanji - 0.29 - 403.13 Red Sparrow - 0.29 - 46.15 Strangers 2 - 0.21 - 23.86 Death Wish - 0.16 - 33.79
  14. adding roughly 100 extra people from last nights tickets/venue average would give a total opening day number of about 12.18 million. RP1 made 3,750,000 last night at 3,500 locations. This gives a PTA of $1,071. about 117 people. Getting a $2,000 PTA today is about roughly 218 tickets/venue at $9.18.
  15. predictions 1,471 (---) Paul, Apostle of Christ - $2,331 avg - 3.43 - 11.54 175 (+147) - Isle of Dogs - $19,000 avg - 3.33 - 6.15 1,466 (-400) - Game Night - $1,872 avg - 2.74 - 65.48 2,173 (---) - Midnight Sun - $1,026 - 2.23 - 8.00 2,023 (---) - Unsane - $1,062 - 2.15 - 7.62 1,671 (-400) - Peter Rabbit - $1,000 avg - 1.67 - 110.29 882 (-600) Red Sparrow - $1,296 - 1.14 - 46.26 781 (-700) Strangers 2 - $1,080 - 0.84 - 23.89 328 (-150) Annihilation - $1,800 - 0.58 - 32.45 328 (-150) Greatest Showman - $1,472 - 0.48 - 171.86 622 (-400) - Jumanji - $749 avg - 0.47 - 402.55 504 (-800) Death Wish $837 - 0.42 - 33.60 60 (-57) Thoroughbreds - $1,287 - 0.08 - 2.92 64 (-64) Hurricane Heist - $792 - 0.05 - 6.09 50 (-67) Gringo - $396 - 0.02 - 4.97 Updated Predictions day after Paul, Apostle - 3.45 - 11.52 Isle of Dogs - 3.00 - 6.25 Game Night - 2.56 - 65.00 Midnight Sun - 2.22 - 7.96 Unsane - 2.01 - 7.45 Peter Rabbit - 1.77 - 110.37 Greatest Showman - 0.80 - 172.16 Red Sparrow - 0.66 - 45.60 Strangers 2 - 0.56 - 23.46 Annihilation - 0.44 - 32.25 Death Wish - 0.37 - 33.48
  16. I think it is something you definitely have to get lost in. it feels that way chapter after chapter. The low budget feel when they are in the forest... it seems like if they doubled the budget, you would get like a Blade Runner sound atmosphere added in with rocking visuals. & Cloud Atlas. Unfortunately for me, I felt the screenplay was watered down a bit, almost like to make the movie more understandable. The music was fun and the ambiguity of the film, yet like the opening statement, it was something you could zone into with each chapter. Like Sucker Punch. Don't mind the low budget though, it added to this one. *comparison Arrival* It is a top notch film. The Fifth Wave, Maze Runner, and Annihilation all got it done for roughly half the budget of Divergent 2. However, Insurgent has the Blade Runner scope. the ambition is there. from Ex-Machina to this. lots of colorful visuals in the surrounding environment. Ex-Machina takes it deeper with the A.I. discussions, and Annihilation really goes forward with the visuals and you can follow the characters through this lost journey where the physical reality of plants and animals and even their own minds seem to start to become rewired from this prism. despite the lower budget, the visuals actually make the scope of this movie seem pretty big.
  17. Friday March 30th, 20 theaters from Fandango GND3 = 58 shows from 13 theaters. Not the same as 58 shows divided out amongst 13 theaters, but tickets/theater would be when deriving from reported numbers. Peter Rabbit + Jumanji has a double feature I am not including below. 5 theaters out of 20 have it. 10 showings. Greatest Showman has a singalong version option and a regular option. I am combining those. showings/theater, 20 theaters total God's Not Dead 3 - 58 /13 = 4.5 average Ready Player One - 219/20 = 10.95 average Acrimony - 94/20 = 4.7 average Midnight Sun - 54/18 = 3.0 average Pacific Rim 2 - 135/20 = 6.75 average....... 20 people per showing for GND3 for 4.5 showings a day. Take the same rate, but multiply this avg (20) by 6.75 Paul, Apostle - 65/15 = 4.33 ^^=90 tickets vs 135 tickets ^^ same density, twice as much. Sherlock - 114/20 = 5.7 - (avg ticket price w. matinees... could round # down to 5.) Isle of Dogs - 30/4 = 7.5 Imagine - 85/18 = 4.5 Tomb - 90/20 = 4.5 Unsane - 55/19 - 2.9 Red Sparrow - 23/9 = 2.56 Black Panther - 111/20 = 5.55 Love, Simon - 88/19 = 4.63 Wrinkle in Time - 74/16 = 4.63 Strangers 2 - 23/5 = 4.6 Game Night - 59/16 = 3.7 Showman - 20/6 = 3.3 Annihilation - 19/6 = 3.2 Death Wish - 12/4 = 3.0 *Peter Rabbit - 20/7 = 2.9 + double feature *Jumanji - 6/2 = 3.0 + double feature Shades - 3/1 = 3.0 Water - 3/1 = 3.0
  18. In this day and age, anything over a couple of bucks would be a win for any movie.
  19. I assumed it was 50 come Sunday. 50 over the weekend would be too much.
  20. Wed previews + Thursday opening day makes it difficult for RP1 to reach the 50 million that WB might expect come Sunday. One would have to assume crazy WOM and sell outs for good Friday with no one running to a second option like Jumanji vs TLJ
  21. Peter Rabbit down 55% instead of my predicted 75%. everything down around 60% from Sunday instead of 70%. nothing yet to suggest Monday was a day off. I don't expect Wednesday will be much higher than the Monday numbers. Thursday, most films will loose locations due to Ready Player One opening in over 4,000 spots on Thursday.
  22. predictions for Mon - Thurs Pacific Rim should get about 70 tickets sold per venue Monday. the total should be close to 280 making the average 70 for each day. Uprising, Monday - 70 ticket x 3,708 location x $9.18 = Monday # about -67% from Sunday which made about 9/10ths of Friday location 1 ticket applying this, and using different prices for different movies, here are predicted totals by Thursday #locations 3,708 - Uprising - 70 x 4 = 9.53 = 37.65 total 3,370 - Panther - 42.5 x 4 = 636.52 total 2,253 - Imagine - 70 x 4 = 43.71 3,662 - Gnomes - 25 x 4 = 13.90 3,854 - Tomb - 27.5 x 4 = 45.24 3,423 - Time - 20 x 4 = 76.39 2,434 - Simon - 40 x 4 = 27.00 1,473 - Apostle - 40 x 4 = 7.29 1,866 - Night - 22.5 x 4 = 62.30 2,173 - Sun - 15 x 4 = 5.17 2,023 - Unsane - 15 x 4 = 4.85 2,071 - Rabbit - 12.5 x 4 = 107.64 1,482 - Sparrow - 15 x 4 = 44.85 1,481 - Strangers - 12.5 x 4 = 22.87 27 - Isle of Dogs - 500 X 2 + 200 x 2 x 150 x $9.18 = 2.44 1,304 - Death - 10 x 4 = 33.09 478 - Annihilation - 22.5 x 4 = 31.81 1,022 - Jumanji - 8 x 4 = 400.92 478 - Showman - 12.5 x 4 = 171.14 836 - Entebbe - 8 x 4 = 3.14 509 - Freed - 8 x 4 = 100.37 247 - Water - 12.5 x 4 = 63.40 128 - Billboards - 10 x 4 = 54.18 128 - Hurricane - 10 x 4 = 6.05 117 - Thoroughbreds - 15 x 4 = 2.81 40,670 ......Ready Player One +4,200 ......Acrimony +2,100 ......God's Not Dead 3 +1,700 figure that 40,670 number to hold steady. RP1 will obviously be showing with about 2 prints per location, but Tomb Raider will probably drop from 1.5 prints per location, to just showing in one theater house per location. The rest of the holdovers should scramble with a single print to get as many showings as possible over the weekend. Maybe Strangers 2 will get a solid weekend matinee showing in one house, then the same print shown 2 more times in a different room late at night. With this, Acrimony and God's Not Dead 3 should take 1.0 theaters each at a 10.0 theater showing location with the print being shown on repeat throughout the day upon debut. but do not imagine it being that these two pictures occupy 20% of all 10-screen theaters. The week after that, four new ones might come out, The Greatest Showman might finally be out for purchase, and Peter Rabbit could still showing at 1,000 spots fighting over the earliest times it can find.
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