babz06

Manchester By the Sea(drama) and La La Land(musical romance) aren't general audience type movies. It'll be for older adults and musical lovers. They aren't huge threats, Rogue One is though. A casual movie-goer will either watch Rogue One or Passengers or Sing (if they have children) this Christmas. At any rate, there is room for all of these films to succeed. Manchester By the Sea and La La Land are more likely to affect the straight dramas like Collateral Beauty , A Monster Calls, etc. They've already taken away audience from Loving and Miss Sloane.

They showed the entire plot......

Will probably feels like he has to do it since he's getting older but people enjoy him most in blockbusters. I also think he needs to do some comedies again, so hopefully bad boys 3 actually gets off the ground.

The films that will get a globes/sag nom boost: Manchester, La La Land, Lion, Hidden Figures, and Fences. Loving and Moonlight probably aren't going to expand again until after Oscar nominations, which is where they could get a second wind. Silence could have really used GG/SAG nominations it's going to be tough marketing the film without them. Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge will try to hold onto theaters and take advantage of the X-mas holidays.

It's on par with Brooklyn right now, a good performance in limited so far. Don't write it off yet.

They went wide in order to take advantage the slow period before Christmas. They had no idea who would win the election, so it's just bad luck. It would not have made money anywhere else especially since it had little to no oscar buzz.

I don't get it either, I know Rogue One is scary but i cant imagine that audience shares alot with La La Land. Good counter-programming survives against tentpoles. Now it's going into the crowded Christmas fray with much more competition. They should have stuck with the original release plan: ny/la Dec-2 limited (400 theaters) -Dec. 9 wide Dec.16

Right now im looking at Dreamgirls as a barometer. That opened with a 126k PTA from 3 theaters, eventually making 103m domestic. I think that's a possible total for La La Land.

i hate these fucking teasers to 2min trailers. What is the point?

This is why i said that the third film should have been Planet of the Apes, where the humans are essentially gone. War looks exactly like Dawn, only difference is the size of the army. I dont anticipate this movie doing better than the second one.

So many trailers this week.

That's a big issue, she still looks like a kid. Not a leading lady. Unfortunately in Hollywood looks matter a lot for actresses.

Fifty Shades and Lego Batmman will but the rest that you listed will all be lucky to reach 50m.

I'm not feeling the chemistry between rock and efron.

They are going wide on different dates throughout January though, so it doesn't really matter. A Monster Calls-Jan 6 Hidden Figures-Jan 6 Silence-Jan 6 Also being released this weekend is Underworld:Blood Wars, which is for a niche audience. So pretty good counter-programming. I would not be surprised if Hidden figures beats it. Live By Night-Jan 13 Patriot's Day-Jan 13 Also being released this weekend is The Bye Bye Man(horror), Monster Trucks(family) and Sleepless(action/thriller). None of these releases are threatening, again would not be surprised if Live by Night and Patriot's Day both top them all. Paterson and 20th Century Women are probably staying in limited release with small expansions depending on how well they do, i dont expect either of them to go into really wide release seeing as they're both small films.

This. Power Rangers especially will get killed if it stays in march. I think it needed to move more than King Arthur to be perfectly honest.

That's true, a 40-50 year old probably wouldnt see GOTG unless they had kids.

At least they moved it to a less crowded month. The biggest films in May will be GOTG 2,Alien Covenant and Pirates 5. Let's be honest Gotg2 is the only film that people care about in May, plus it's going to be more family friendly than most marvel films ;so maybe Arthur can find a mature audience. Although I would have pushed it to Memorial Day not the weekend after GOTG2.

Maybe it can do Me Before You numbers?

Something big can still afford to move to August. Annabelle 2 is not huge competition.

It's not gonna fall below 100m, i mean even ID:R crossed that mark. It will be below 200m DOM though

It still doesn't make sense to move it to such a crowded month. April would have made more sense. I do think King Arthur/Power Rangers is likely moving though.

Highly unlikely. Moonlight is already at 10m before Oscar noms have come out. Whiplash was only at 6m before Oscar noms. Moonlight will lose more theaters during Christmas but it's getting another expansion in January after awards are announced and I'd say it will add another 5 to 10m to it's total. It should be in the high teens possibly low 20s when all is said and done, so far from the lowest grossing Best Picture.

Their year is actually fine, not great but not horrible and they are actually in profit. Plenty of hits:Sausage Party, Angry Birds, Don't Breath, The Shallows. No huge money-loser with the exception of Ghostbusters, which cost too much. Mag 7 probably cost too much as well(90m) but it performed well for a Western in today's market (93m DOM) . Billy lynn is not going to hurt their pockets considering it cost a meesly 40m, and Inferno's overseas grosses saved it, that budget was also manageable (75m). Passengers i believe cost 120m, so again not too expensive and they should make the budget back domestically at the very least. 2017 looks decent for them: Spiderman:Homecoming, and Jumanji should both be huge; Rock That Body, The Dark Tower and Emoji could be break out hits. It's not all doom and gloom over there even though it seems like it because they have no huge IP properties, they actually look like a "normal" movie studio making different genres and types of films.

My guess is that they want to take advantage of Golden Globe noms(Dec 12) /SAG noms(Dec 14) before going to a nationwide release. Surprisingly, Miss SLoane is getting 1600 theaters next weekend, that film as no buzz whatsoever.