babz06

I'm one of those who actually liked the Kanye west song. This new one sound corny. Bomb waiting to happen.

With little Oscar prospects, this film looks dead. I dunno if Fox Searchlight will even bother with an overseas roll out like they did with 12YAS (that made 131m OS) BOAN has no known stars so it would likely be a bust too.

Madea is not gonna save them, Tyler Perry films have no overseas appeal, too niche. However, Power Rangers might give Lionsgate a jumpstart.

Yeah, im surprised they got the budget down so low. Rothman is really closing the purse strings over at Sony.

-Solid for Accountant and Kevin Hart. -Looks like a >50% drop for GOTT, it's probably gonna end with around 65-70m which is ok but not the huge hit that Universal was hoping for. -Miss Peregrine holding nicely, being the only teen offering during Sept/Oct looks like it's going to pay off; I think this legs it out to atleast 80m. -Mag 7 probably not crossing 100m, pretty mediocre legs after a good opening weekend for this specific genre. -Birth of A Nation totally died, i guess that A cinemascore meant nothing when audiences outside of the core just aren't interested or turned off. With likely no Oscar love this won't even make 20m. Turned out to be a bad investment for Fox Searchlight, they will be very careful what they buy at Sundance from now on.

They arent going to start talk show promotion for this until probably early December.

I take early Deadline numbers with a grain of salt.

I think they picked a horrible release date, too crowded.

I know. I guess these numbers seem to be the average range for sexy thrillers in this day and age. Gone Girl was an outlier.

And it cost about 4x as much as those films too. Looks like Universal has to make most of their money overseas with it.

For fan driven films like this, twitter numbers don't make much of a difference for me. This has to appeal to GA, which is yet to be seen. BATB, and Kong Skull island will kill this in March. It has a chance if they move it to August, much less competition for teens.

That was part of the deal when it was purchased at Sundance.

Obviously Doctor Strange and Trolls. Inferno i think does mid 20s at best, no one was really asking for a third installment in that franchise.

Girl on the Train coming in a bit weaker than anticipated, probably because of reviews. It'll likely struggle to cross 100m but it's till a modest hit for Universal and Blunt. They shouldn't stop making films like this because there is an audience for them. Birth of a Nation is doing ok all things considered, it won't be another 12 YAS but atleast it isn't a total write-off for Searchlight.

That's the main reason. Christmas falling on Sunday has been a low movie going day. So they release it on Wednesday to get some more weekday business.

Tracking has been off for a good while now. They need to find a more accurate system for predictions.

This is gonna do like 45-50m over christmas, with Oscar noms I'd probably add 10-20m more.

That's not true. There are so few major films starring black leads, and hollywood has barely tried to make new stars besides white straight men. (who flop just as much)

Daisy Ridley and Elizabeth Debicki join http://variety.com/2016/film/news/daisy-ridley-elizabeth-debicki-peter-rabbit-1201869183/

I'm guessing atleast 70-80m dollars. This was originally supposed to come out summer 2015, then it got pushed to Christmas 2016, and eventually to September. Plus it's Tim Burton so it probably has a substantial budget.

Black Swan was a sexy thriller. This is a more traditional drama, i think The Queen numbers are a good target, although Jackie O was considered "American royalty" so who knows.

He's co starring with Jlaw so I dunno if it's a big star test for him He needs to star in more sole lead movies to get a better sense.

The Equalizer did 90m OS, which is where I expect Mag 7 will end up, perhaps a bit more. So around 200m+ WW which is an overall modest performer, they should atleast break even.

35-36m is solid opening. Why were you expecting 50m especially for a western in September? It's like you set yourself up for disappointment.

It's most likely the latter. Trolls is probably gonna do Peanuts movie numbers. This leaves the market wide open for Moana/Sing to blow up.