The Panda

Lin Manuel is one of the most talented entertainers working right now.

+ Aunt, Uncle and Grandparents

The best theater decision I ever made was taking the whole family to see The Wolf of Wall Street for Christmas.

Nothing has a 0% chance, I highly doubt any of those three get close, but I also didn't think Wonder would make more than 60m or so.

Should Safely Cross 1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 2. Wonder 3. Daddy's Home 2 4. Murder on the Orient Express Likely Possibilities 5. Pitch Perfect 3 6. Jumanji Wildcards (Only two need to make it) 7. Ferdinand 8. The Post 9. The Shape of Water 10. The Disaster Artist 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Father Figures 13. Downsizing 14. Phantom Thread

I'm doing my predicts solely based off of a weighted points system which factors in precursors, plus a few extraneous factors (such as negative points for being Netflix, which isn't factored in yet). So as of right now, I have him out because Oldman hasn't shown up at all. Kaluuya and a few others have tied. My predicts will obviously change dramatically once we get guild precursors (as I plan to give a large amount of weight to those) Also, given that I have both of them in the toss up category, I'm only giving a slight preference to Kaluuya. If one or the other starts showing up, they'll move up the list.

Updated predicts Best Picture In 1. Lady Bird 2. Call Me By Your Name 3. Get Out Likely In 4. The Florida Project 5. Dunkirk 6. The Post Toss Up 7. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri 8. The Shape of Water 9. Phantom Thread 10. The Disaster Artist 11. I, Tonya On the Fringes 12. The Big Sick 13. Mudbound 14. Good Time 15. Logan 16. Wonder Woman 17. Baby Driver 18. Downsizing Director Likely In 1. Jordan Peele, Get Out 2. Sean Baker, The Florida Project 3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Toss Up 4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name 5. Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water 6. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk On the Fringes 1. Steven Spielberg, The Post 2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri Best Actress In 1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Likely In 2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water 3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri 4. Meryl Streep, The Post 5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya On the Fringes 1. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game 2. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes 3. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul Best Actor In 1. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Likely In 2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist 3. Tom Hanks, The Post Toss Up 4. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread 5. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out 6. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour 7. Robert Pattinson, Good Time 8. Henry Dean Stanton, Lucky On the Fringes 9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger 10. Jeremy Renner, Wind River 11. Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats Best Supporting Actress In 1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Likely In 2. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick Toss Up 3. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip 4. Mary J Blige, Mudbound 5. Allison Janney, I, Tonya 6. Louis Smith, Marjorie Prime On the Fringes 7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate 8. Talliah Lenice Webster, Good Time Best Supporting Actor In 1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Likely In 2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards 3. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name Toss Up 4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk 5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water 6. Dustin Hoffmann, The Meyerowtiz Stories 7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound On the Fringes 8. Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name 9. Bennie Safdie, Good Time Adapted Screenplay In 1. The Disaster Artist 2. Call Me By Your Name Likely In 3. Molly’s Game Toss Up 4. Victoria and Abdul 5. Wonderstruck 6. Wonder Woman 7. Mudbound On the Fringes 8. Logan 9. Wonder 10. Blade Runner 2049 Original Screenplay In 1. Get Out 2. Phantom Thread Likely In 3. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri 4. Lady Bird Toss Up 5. The Post 6. The Shape of Water 7. The Florida Project 8. Dunkirk On the Fringes 9. The Big Sick 10. Beatriz At Dinner Cinematography Likely In 1. The Shape of Water 2. Dunkirk 3. Blade Runner 2049 Toss Up 4. Call Me By Your Name 5. Mudbound 6. Three Billboards On the Fringes 7. Lady Bird 8. Darkest Hour 9. Wonderstruck 10. The Post Editing Likely In 1. Dunkirk Toss Up 2. I, Tonya 3. Three Billboards 4. Get Out 5. Call Me By Your Name 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour On the Fringes 8. War for the Planet of the Apes 9. Baby Driver 10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 11. Blade Runner 2049 12. The Post 13. Good Time Animated Film In 1. Coco Toss Up 2. Loving Vincent 3. Birdboy 4. The Breadwinner 5. In This Corner of the World 6. The LEGO Batman Movie 7. Cars 3 On the Fringes 8. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 9. Ferdinand 10. The Boss Baby 11. Despicable Me 3 12. Captain Underpants 13. The Girl Without Hands Production Design Likely In 1. The Shape of Water 2. Blade Runner 2049 3. Phantom Thread Toss Up 4. Dunkirk 5. Get Out 6. Downsizing 7. Beauty and the Beast On the Fringes 8. The Greatest Showman 9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 10. Darkest Hour 11. The Post Costume Design Likely In 1. Phantom Thread 2. Beauty and the Beast Toss Up 3. Victoria and Abdul 4. The Beguiled 5. Dunkirk 6. Murder on the Orient Express 7. The Shape of Water On the Fringes 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Wonder Woman Hair and Makeup Toss Up 1. I, Tonya 2. The Shape of Water 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 4. IT 5. Darkest Hour 6. Beauty and the Beast 7. Wonder 8. Logan Score Likely In 1. The Shape of Water 2. Dunkirk Toss Up 3. Phantom Thread 4. The Post 5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 6. Wonder Woman 7. War for the Planet of the Apes 8. Wonderstruck On the Fringes 9. Darkest Hour 10. Blade Runner 2049 11. Coco 12. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri Original Song In 1. “Remember Me” from Coco Likely In 2. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name 3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria Toss Up 4. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall 5. “The Promise” from The Promise 6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast 7. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman 8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker 9. “It ain’t fair” from Detroit On the Fringes 10. “Never Forget” from Murder on the Orient Express 11. “Mighty River” from Mudbound 12. “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me By Your Name Sound Editing In 1. Dunkirk Likely In 2. Blade Runner 2049 Toss Up 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4. War for the Planet of the Apes 5. Logan 6. Darkest Hour On the Fringes 7. Baby Driver 8. Coco 9. Wonder Woman 10. The Shape of Water Sound Mixing In 1. Dunkirk Likely In 2. Blade Runner 2049 Toss Up 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4. War for the Planet of the Apes 5. Baby Driver 6. Coco 7. Darkest Hour 8. Logan On the Fringes 9. Beauty and the Beast 10. The Greatest Showman 11. Wonder Woman VFX In 1. Blade Runner 2049 Likely In 2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 3. War for the Planet of the Apes Toss Up 4. Dunkirk 5. The Shape of Water 6. Wonder Woman 7. Alien: Covenant On the Fringes 8. Logan 9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 10. Downsizing 11. Thor: Rangarok

I'm pretty sure that's just saving face "It was the plan all along!"

Which precursors are next?

There's really no consensus choice for most awards rn besides maybe Dafoe and Chalamet. BP is looking wild to predict once we get past noms.

I think if it's Chalamet v Franco, Franco will win due to age

GET OUT!!

The only thing mother could possibly make is Han's personal list. It may even get snubbed there!

Also, saying Coco is a Catholic movie like saying Up is a Republican movie because it features a cranky, old white man angry about the changing demographics of his suburb and is longing for the good old days.

I said potential, meaning could break out could bomb.

That doesn't even touch on possible hits like Hellboy Gambit LEGO 2 HTTYD3 New Jordan Peele Godzilla 2 Dumbo A DC Film Flarsky Men in Black/Jump Street Crossover Minecraft? Top Gun Artemis Fowl Fast Franchise Entry Nicole It is sad how few original blockbuster attempts there are though.

2019 has IW2 Aladdin Lion King Captain Marvel WW2 SW8 Toy Story 4 Homecoming 2 Pets 2 IT 2 Frozen 2 Wicked Plus some wild cards. I think it could do it, even if 3 of those solid bets above missed

Are you saying Deadpool wasn't an epic movie????

Interesting tidbit, even adjusted to ticket inflation, 2016 holds the record for most 300m films. 2017 will be close to a second place tie. It just shows how lopsided the top has become recently, because it's not as if the BO as a whole is beating other years.

You're right, because it's much better than Titanic!

The last great, historical-epic blockbuster wasn't Titanic...

The last great, historical-epic blockbuster wasn't Titanic...

I'm not exactly sure why, but I haven't seen a single ad since I donated! Might be worth a shot!

I hope everyone on this forum watches the Room before they see The Disaster Artist. Just from watching the trailers, so much will be missed if you don't give it a full viewing before seeing it.

"You're tearing me apart Lisa!" I re-watched the movie in its entirety so I can fully appreciate the Disaster Artist. But, this movie in and of itself is worth appreciating, simply because of the absurd hilarity of it all. It's technically one of the most poorly made films I have seen, but the textbook terrible nature of it all makes it all the more hilarious to watch. It gets everything wrong where it ends up making the entire thing work. Tommy Wisseau is unforgettable in the film, and the rest of the cast is just as memorable in their... unconventional ... acting techniques. The framing of the shots, the poor progression of each scene, the unwatchably bad sex scenes, the nonsensical script, the football, the cheep cheeps, it's hysterical. I don't know what Wissaeu was trying to do with this movie, but it doesn't matter, the end product is something that I'd consider an essential viewing for anybody who likes film. Obviously an F for technical quality, but that doesn't make it not worth watching.