The Panda

Look, I get it you think a movie is going to underperform. But you're being a little obnoxious.

Yeah I'm seeing Baywatch as a walk up movie, I'd probably count out the crazy 50m 3-day predicts. But it's 3-Day could still very easily be in the 30m range. Alien only showed up so early because it's a frontloaded fan-oriented franchise.

Honestly. This put it back to ending in the 85-95m range instead of the 95-105m range. Not enough difference that's going to put it over the edge of being a hit or miss. I was originally expecting around 110m (you can check my Summer Game), thinking it could go lower or higher. It should break even and it's not a flop. I'm not sure why people were expecting it to increase from Prometheus in the first place.

I think Pirates and Baywatch definitely have potential to put 2017 over 2014 I think you could potentially have around 145m from those new openers versus the 105m from the new openers in 2014.

Also, if I was going to pick my personal awards noms for each year (felt like ranking things), 2016 2015 2014 2013

Yeah, a bad SOTM that's obviously hurting a lot of people isn't going to kill your game. It's like when you're watching a football game, a team scores in the first quarter and you hear somebody go "Welp, looks like the other teams done for!"

Pirates has been popping off and on pulse the last week or so, it's looking like it should have a stronger opening then a lot of people are thinking. 90-110m range wouldn't surprise me.

I'm not seeing the Oscars go with Netflix, but who knows, they're being wild lately.

1. Moonlight 2. The Hurt Locker 3. 12 Years a Slave 4. Birdman 5. Spotlight 6. The Artist 7. Argo 8. The King's Speech

Thanks for tagging me

My most anticipated movie of the year now with that gorgeous poster.

Yeah, like I said, it isn't overly likely, but it's not impossible.

6 of them wrong isn't terrible, the points you lose from it aren't gamethrowing by any means.

Guardians was underestimated by over a million two weeks in a row, also. I still wouldn't place any money on it, because usually the entire slate of movies is underestimated or overestimated together (with some exceptions). Chances are strong Alien stays on top.

It's possible Guardians is underestimated and Alien is overestimated and that would lead to Guardians on top. But it's not very likely it'll end up swapping them unless there's a half a million error in both directions.

I mean you can personally disagree, but it appears audiences who have seen it haven't taken to it, and that's my best explanation for it. (And I personally found the Alien callbacks to be rather hollow and not capturing what you'd expect from Alien)

I wasn't talking about the internal multiplier, I was just commenting I don't expect a good WoM or multiplier. And if you watch Covenant, it is definitely a Prometheus sequel that also forces a few throwbacks to Alien. I was mentioning how the audience score being so low is likely due to people expecting an Alien movie and getting another Prometheus.

Yeah, I understand rubbing it in if somebody gave you a lot of grief about your prediction for a while, but that wasn't the case. On the numbers note, I was hoping I'd be wrong about 38m looking like the ceiling and 35-36m looking like where it'd hit. It would have been much better for my summer game, now I stand to lose a lot of points from SOTM

Alien lied in its marketing. It marketed itself as a horror movie but it plays like Prometheus, with sparing amounts of horror. Marketing a movie as something it's not is the easiest way to have bad WoM. (The movie's also not very good, it's only decent)

Way to early, but what the hell I'll guess something crazy! Best Picture Blade Runner 2049 Detroit The Disaster Artist Dunkirk Get Out It Comes At Night The Post The Shape of the Water Suburbicon Untitled PTA Best Director Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit James Franco, The Disaster Artist Jordan Peele, Get Out Steven Spielberg, The Post Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 Best Actor John Boyega, Detroit Daniel Day Lewis, Untitled PTA James Franco, The Disaster Artist Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman/Logan Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Best Actress Kirsten Dunst, Woodshock Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Jennifer Lawrence, mother! Julia Roberts, Wonder Meryl Streep, The Post Best Supporting Actor Zac Efron, The Greatest Showman Oscar Isaac, Suburbicon Anthony Mackie, Detroit Seth Rogen, The Disaster Artist Harry Styles, Dunkirk Best Supporting Actress Carmen Ejogo, It Comes at Night Julianne Moore, Suburbicon Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water Camilla Rutherford, Untitled PTA Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman Original Screenplay Detroit Get Out The Post Suburbicon The Shape of Water Adapted Screenplay Blade Runner 2049 Call Me By Your Name The Disaster Artist Logan The Lost City of Z Best Cinematography Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk It Comes at Night The Shape of Water Untitled PTA Best Animated Feature Animal Crackers The Breadwinner Coco Despicable Me 3 Ferdinand Film Editing Blade Runner 2049 Detroit Get Out Suburbicon Star Wars: The Last Jedi Production Design Beauty and the Beast Blade Runner 2049 The Greatest Showman The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Costume Design Beauty and the Beast Blade Runner 2049 The Greatest Showman The Shape of Water Untitled PTA Makeup and Hairstyling Beauty and the Beast Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 The Greatest Showman Sound Mixing Blade Runner 2049 The Greatest Showman Detroit Dunkirk Star Wars: The Last Jedi Sound Editing Blade Runner 2049 Detroit Dunkirk It Comes At Night Star Wars: The Last Jedi Original Score Blade Runner 2049 The Book of Henry The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Untitled PTA Film Original Song Evermore, Beauty and the Beast Coco Despicable Me 3 "The Greatest Showman" 2x Visual Effects Blade Runner 2049 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi War for the Planet of the Apes

I saw A24 and I knew it was going to be more interesting than 95% of the other studio movies out there.

I have an update planned for the next day or so!

A Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Logan B Alien: Covenant Beauty and the Beast Kong: Skull Island Split C A Dog's Purpose The Fate of the Furious D The Great Wall The Shack F King Arthur: Legend of the Sword Monster Trucks Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Planning on Renting Get Out Ghost in the Shell The LEGO Batman Movie John Wick: Chapter 2 The Case for Christ Life The Lost City of Z Your Name T2: Trainspotting The Founder Gifted The Wall The Zookeeper's Wife Planning on Seeing (May) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Baywatch For sure seeing in theaters (June) Wonder Woman It Comes at Night The Mummy The Big Sick I, Daniel Blake Baby Driver The Book of Henry Cars 3 All Eyez on Me Despicable Me 3 The House Transformers: The Last Knight (July) Dunkirk War for the Planet of the Apes A Ghost Story Atomic Blonde Spider-Man: Homecoming Lady Macbeth Menashe Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (August) Detroit The Dark Tower Wind River The Glass Castle Good Time The Hitman's Bodyguard (September) It Kingsman: The Golden Circle The Solutrean Woodshock Ninjago American Made Flatliners Samson (October) Blade Runner 2049 2017 Cloverfield Movie mother! The Snowman The Mountain Between Us Geostorm Granite Mountain (November) Coco Thor: Ragnorak Murder on the Orient Express Suburbicon Darkest Hour Justice League Wonder Mary Magdelene The Star (December) Star Wars: The Last Jedi The Disaster Artist The Shape of the Water Pitch Perfect 3 Downsizing The Post The Greatest Showman on Earth Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle The Current War The Six Billion Dollar Man Untitled PTA Ferdinand

Im thinking like 240m DOM though, not OW.

I only have DM3 40-50m over Dunkirk