The Panda

I'm still hoping it pushes for 50m this week.

Fun! We should add Best Sound as well. Sound Editing/Mixing is a lot more important than people give credit. Also, instead of action sequence, why not stunt ensemble?

Here's my final update DOM Finding Dory - 510.4m Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 500m Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice - 420.4m Captain America: Civil War - 408.3m Suicide Squad - 370.4m Moana - 320m Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them - 314.3m The Jungle Book - 242.4m The BFG - 230m Zootopia - 220.8m Doctor Strange - 216.4m The Secret Life of Pets - 216.2m Independence Day: Resurgence - 214.3m X-Men: Apocalypse - 195.1m Ghostbusters - 187.6m Deadpool - 174.6m Bourne 5 - 171.8m Kung Fu Panda 3 - 160.1m Star Trek Beyond - 152.7m Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - 146.8m Central Intelligence - 146.1m Alice Through the Looking Glass - 145.4m Passengers - 144.8m Sing! - 144.2m Bill Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - 137.8m Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - 137.2m Assassin's Creed - 131m The Magnificent Seven - 128m The Girl on the Train - 125.7m Jumanji (2016) - 122.1m The Boss - 121.4m Warcraft - 121.1m The Conjuring 2 - 111.4m Ice Age: Collision Course - 110.2m Miracles From Heaven - 109.2m The Divergent Series: Allegiant - 106.8m The Angry Birds Movie - 104m Let It Snow - 102.1m Inferno - 101m Ride Along 2 - 100m Storks - 97.5m Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - 96.1m The Great Wall - 95.2m Deepwater Horizon - 94.8m Trolls - 90.4m 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi - 90m Pete's Dragon - 89.5m Ben-Hur - 81.4m Mother's Day - 75.2m The Witch - 74.4m Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - 71.2m God's Not Dead 2 - 69.6m Zoolander 2 - 68.6m The Purge 3 - 68.1m Now You See Me 2 - 66.4m Sausage Party - 66.2m The Finest Hours - 64.8m Risen - 60.5m OWs Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice - 175.3m Captain America: Civil War - 168.7m Suicide Squad - 151.2m Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 145.4m Finding Dory - 137.8m Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them - 125.7m Independence Day: Resurgence - 91.2m The Jungle Book - 78.2m X-Men: Apocalypse - 76.8m Doctor Strange - 75.4m Moana - 75.2m Deadpool - 74.3m Ghostbusters - 61.5m The Secret Life of Pets - 60.3m Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - 57.8m The BFG - 55.4m Zootopia - 54.5m Star Trek Beyond - 53.2m Alice Through the Looking Glass - 52.3m Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - 51.8m The Conjuring 2 - 50.2m Bourne 5 - 48.9m Warcraft - 47.3m Kung Fu Panda 3 - 45.6m The Divergent Series: Allegiant - 42.7m The Magnificent 7 - 40.5m Ice Age: Collision Course - 36.5m Central Intelligence - 35.8m Jumanji (2016) - 35.4m The Boss - 35.2m Ride Along 2 - 34.7m Deepwater Horizon - 34.1m The Angry Birds Movie - 32.7m Assassin's Creed - 31.2m Sing! - 31m Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - 30.5m 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi - 29.5m The Great Wall - 29.3m Trolls - 28.7m The Purge 3 - 28.5m Pete's Dragon - 27.8m Bill Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - 27.5m The Girl on a Train - 27.2m Let It Snow - 27m Inferno - 26.7m Ben-Hur - 26.5m Passengers - 26m Miracles From Heaven - 25.7m Storks - 25.2m Now You See Me 2 - 24.5m The Witch - 24.4m Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - 23.2m God's Not Dead 2 - 21.4m Mother's Day - 20.5m Risen - 20.1m Zoolander 2 - 18.7m Sausage Party - 17.8m The Finest Hours - 17.5m

Neither of those are winning BP, Carol is losing momentum fast, and Inarritu won last year. If you're talking about BP momentum, the Big Short has it. You're BP winner will either be that or Spotlight, bank on it.

What you prefer doesn't a BP winner make.

On precedent over the years with 10 nominees, every year 1-2 films that the PGA didn't nominate got an Oscar nom. In most cases one. So of Carol, Room, Inside Out, and Star Wars, at least one of them will get a nomination. Maybe two. Due to Star Wars getting an Eddie nod, I'd think that'd place it over Carol and Room.

But it also beat out Spotlight for an Eddie nomination. Hard to tell.

Nope, I knew what it was about, I figured Spotlight was peaking early, and there really was no other movie I could see winning best picture besides one of those two. It's playing with the academy much better than the critics or press.

Now, you'll go full Panda and put Inside Out as #1.

Was I the first on the, "The Big Short could win BP wagon"? I feel special.

Sicario got an editing nod from the EDDIES, plus critics choice, plus I can't see SoC getting any other nods.

Star Wars also has a female lead, if it gets in, too.

I'd say Sicario and Ex Machina are more likely for Original Screenplay. Straight Outta Compton also missed the Eddie nom. It might be able to pull Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, but I am not sure what other nomination it has enough momentum to take in order to secure a BP nod. Then again, Selma did it last year with just an Original Song nod (but it was a completely different scenario). I think if anything, this is putting Sicario in place for a BP nod, and possibly pushing Carol and Room out.

I'd think Locked 1.The Big Short 2.Spotlight 3.Mad Max: Fury Road Near Lock 4.The Martian 5.The Revenant Solid Chances 6.Bridge of Spies 7.Sicario On the Bubble 8.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 9.Straight Outta Compton 10.Carol 11.Room Possible Spoiler 12.Inside Out 13.Brooklyn 14.Ex Machina

Since the BP field expanded, at least 7 of the nominations were nominated here. That pretty much means 7 of these (at least) are getting a BP nod, and that only leaves room for 3 movies (or less) that weren't nominated to spoil. Currently, I'd think Star Wars is in the best position to spoil, then Carol, then Room. Especially since I still don't see Straight Outta Compton or Ex Machina getting a BP nod (and I am very iffy on Brooklyn)

Ø The Big Short Producers: Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner Ø Bridge of Spies Producers: Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt, Kristie Macosko Krieger Ø Brooklyn Producers: Finola Dwyer & Amanda Posey Ø Ex Machina This film is in the process of being vetted for producer eligibility Ø Mad Max: Fury Road Producers: Doug Mitchell & George Miller Ø The Martian Producers: Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, Mark Huffam Ø The Revenant Producers: Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon Ø Sicario Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Edward L. McDonnell, Molly Smith Ø Spotlight Producers: Michael Sugar & Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust Ø Straight Outta Compton Producers: Ice Cube & Matt Alvarez, F. Gary Gray, Dr. Dre, Scott Bernstein No Star Wars, Carol, Room, or Trumbo. This is a big blow to Carol, Room, and decent one to Star Wars (which at least got the Eddie) So far Carol has missed a SAG nomination, a PGA nomination, an ACE nomination, and Production Design nomination. It's a lot weaker than people thought. BP Nominees looking like 1.The Big Short 2.Spotlight 3.Mad Max: Fury Road 4.The Revenant 5.The Martian 6.Bridge of Spies 7.Sicario Possible spoilers for 8-10 spots: Star Wars, Carol, Room, Straight Outta Compton, Brooklyn, Ex Machina

I wouldn't be too shocked. I think Trumbo is more likely to get a BP nom than Brooklyn.

Wasn't it supposed to be yesterday? They are being real drama queens about it. Typical producers.

It's hard to come up with 5 Oscar Contenders out of this, just because there's three categories. But I think the following are not in the race, and this would be the shortlist. I'd think it'd look like 1.Cinderella 2.Mad Max: Fury Road 3.Bridge of Spies 4.Crimson Peak 5.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 6.The Martian 7.Ex Machina 8.The Danish Girl 9.The Revenant 10.Trumbo

I think I've agreed with you on most films this year (I could be terribly wrong about that), so I'm fairly excited to see yours.

That's true, Spotlight missing editing could be a big indicator of it losing BP. Birdman missed it last year, but that was an exception, not a precedent. I still don't think Star Wars can win BP, I think it'll be the Big Short. But it and Mad Max are big dark horses now for a lot of categories.

Over Spotlight? I loved Star Wars, but it wasn't better edited than Spotlight. Star Wars or Sicario will likely miss the editing nom to Big Short. The other three should be safe. I'm going to guess Star Wars does.

So they're actually going to start production on this, and it's not just some massive troll? That's a shocker.

Also, you can't do an adjusted WW list also for the fact that the WW markets were at different places for each of those movies times. Add to that exchange rates and it's just impossible to do fairly.

My predictions moving forward Jan 8 1.Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 50m (817.2m) 2.The Revenant - 35.7m (35.7m) 3.Daddy's Home - 16.1m (118m) 4.The Hateful Eight - 8.9m (42.9m) 5.The Big Short - 7.4m (44.2m) 6.Sisters - 7.3m (74.7m) 7.Alvin - 6.3m (76.8m) 8.Joy - 5.7m (47.1m) 9.Concussion - 4.6m (32.3m) 10.Point Break - 3.1m (27m) 11.Mockingjay Part 2 - 2.6m (278.1m) 12.Creed - 2.4m (107.1m) Top 12 - 150.1m Jan 15 1.Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 35.5m (870.4m) 2.Ride Along 2 - 34.2m (34.2m) 3.13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi - 28.5m (28.5m) 4.The Revenant - 26.1m (74.8m) 5.Norm of the North - 17.5m (17.5m) 6.Daddy's Home - 10.6m (133.8m) 7.The Big Short - 8.5m (56.8m) 8.The Hateful Eight - 5.2m (50.7m) 9.Sisters - 4.7m (81.7m) 10.Alvin - 3.5m (82m) 11.Joy - 3.3m (52.1m) Concussion - 2.5m (36m) Top 12 - 180.1m Jan 23 Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 23.4m (906.5m) 13 Hours - 16.8m (54.3m) The Revenant - 16.2m (99.7m) Ride Along 2 - 15.7m (57.9m) The Boy - 15.2m (15.2m) The 5th Wave - 12.5m (12.5m) Norm of the North - 10.7m (33.7m) Dirty Grandpa - 10.2m (10.2m) The Big Short - 7.2m (67.8m) Daddy's Home - 6.3m (143.2m) The Hateful Eight - 3.2m (55.7m) Sisters - 3m (86.5m)