The Panda

Mad Max can pull some tech noms and wins but I dont think it can get much more than that. Oscars don't like action sequels and never really acknowledged the others.

What people need to remember about Mad Max, even with phenomenal reviews pretty much everyone has said if you don't like action movies (like the last Mad Max) you are not going to like the movie. I think it can have good legs, but don't expect phenomenal legs, action junkies are a limited audience and non-action junkies haven't overly loved the movie. Strong reviews does not necessarily mean strong legs. Hard R action films have a limited audience pool, no matter how good they are. I think a result a little bit above Kingsman numbers should be the goal for OW and DOM (which is good). Something around 45m / 135m would be a fantastic result.

Neighbors still isn't great R Rated Comedy =\= R rated action Edge of Tomorrow did 1.8 in comparison. Mad Max about doubled that, however I think it'll have a bit more front loading (especially since the TV spots I saw emphasized a Thursday night release), so I'd say about 1.5x-1.75x its weekend seems like a decent starting range. 43.3m-50mish id think (which is great), however if it's more front loaded than I'm expecting it could end up lower.

Doubt Gatsby's the best comparison. I'm still thinking it hits low 40s with that, maybe high 30s if it's overly front loaded. The high pre-release buzz probably caused a little bit more rush than there would have been otherwise. 50m would be fantastic though.

I'd expect PP2 not to be as front loaded as Fault, no where near in fact. 22 Jump Street was a summer release so it should compare well to that.

1) Will Pitch Perfect make at least 20 mill more than Mad Max? NO 2) Will Pitch Perfect make more than 49 mill OW? YES 3) Will PP have previews of more than 4 mill? YES 4) Will PP have an OD of more than 17.5 mill? YES 5) Will PP be number one this weekend? YES 6) Will Mad Max open to more than 30 mill? YES 7) Will MM have previews of more than 2 mill? YES 8) Will MM drop more than 25% on Sunday? NO 9) Will Avengers drop more than 45%? YES 10) Will Avengers increase more than 58% on Saturday? YES 11) Will Age of Adeline fall more than 25%? YES 12) Will the top three films combine to make more than 115 mill? YES Question 13: This is an all or nothing question. If you go for it, you must get all four questions right. If you do not go for it, you get 0 points. However, if you do not get perfect on this question, you will lose 20,000 points. Getting it correct means you get 20,000 points. All or nothing. If you are not going to attempt this question, just say #13: Abstain. ABSTAIN A) Will MM fall less than 10% on Saturday? Will Avengers have a Saturday decrease of less than 51% from last Friday? C) Will F7 increase more than 60% on Saturday? D) Will Woman in Gold fall more than 12% on Thursday? Bonus 1: What finishes is spots: 4 HOT PURSUIT 7 PAUL BLART MALL COP 2 8 FURIOUS 7 11 CINDERELLA 12 UNFRIENDED 2000 each correct, 5000 bonus for all 5 correct. Bonus 2: What will PP and MM combine to make this weekend? 100.452m Bonus 3: What will Avengers make on Sunday? 10.875m

Its performing much lower than people predicted but people never should have been predicting that high reasonably in the first place. Exclude the 70s and 80s phenomenons and films such as Jurassic Park 2, Pirates 3, TDKR, Shrek 3, Attack of the Clones etc. still had massive drop offs from their predecessors and Avengers was even bigger than them adjusted (Exocet Menace, which is looking to have a bigger drop off than what Avengers), yet they were still huge. Phenomenons don't increase at the box office. The only phenomenon that's had a small decrease from the predecessor was Spidey 2, and Spidey 2 had the luxury of being a very high praised sequel (more than the first) in a time period where sequels were beginning to become popular, as well as comic book movies, and it still had a near 100m drop adjusted. Spidey 2 was a best case scenario, but Avengers was still bigger than the first Spidey (meaning a larger drop off), and Avengers 2 has been no where near as praised like Spidey 2.

The only way I would say Avengers 2 is underperforming is if ended up under Iron Man 3 (or within a 5-10m range of it) domestically or WW. And it should be set to end a good ways above IM3.

The Avengers is technically a sequel to all of the previous Marvel movies though. And im not talking sequels I am talking phenomenon's that had massive drops, even if you take out the long runs they still dropped off massively adjusted. TA2 is not a disappointment for grossing in the mid 450m range when you look at it compared to other sequels to phenomenon's. I can use Shrek 2 to 3 and Pirates 2 to 3 as well because those were phenomenon sequels (just like The Avengers is a sequel, just to multiple movies). Even then you still have your Jurassic Park's, Indiana Jones, The Dark Knight, Batman, Men in Black, Star Wars Prequels, Rockys, The Godfather, etc. Plus even Star Wars' gross without continued runs has a massive adjusted drop to Empire Strikes back, well over what The Avengers 2 will have, and Empire Strikes back was still massive, just like TA2 is still massive. Nothing went wrong for The Avengers 2, the only thing wrong was the expectations placed upon it.

I'll take it

I'll restate this, adjust the drops to these movies and the drop makes perfect sense. All of the following were phenomenon movies with highly successful sequels that still had massive drop offs. (170m drop off looks very nice in comparison to a lot of these) Jaws to Jaws 2 - 770m drop adjusted The Exorcist to The Exorcist 2 - 726m drop adjusted Star Wars to Empire Strikes Back - 519m drop adjusted The Godfather to The Godfather Part 2 - 433m drop adjusted Jurassic Park to Lost World - 294m drop adjusted Phantom Menace to Attack of the Clones - 267m drop adjusted Back to the Future to Back to the Future Part 2 - 241m drop adjusted Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 2 - 226m drop adjusted Home Alone to Home Alone 2 - 210m drop adjusted Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 - 197m drop adjusted Batman to Batman Returns - 193m drop adjusted Raiders of the Lost Ark to Temple of Doom - 193m drop adjusted Men in Black to Men in Black 2 - 177m drop adjusted Rocky to Rock 2 - 170m drop adjusted Pirates 2 to Pirates 3 - 160m drop adjusted Superman to Superman 2 - 149m drop adjusted The Dark Knight to The Dark Knight Rises - 135m drop adjusted Sorceror's Stone to Chamber of Secrets - 89m drop adjusted Transformers 2 to Transformers 3 - 79m drop adjusted Spider-Man to Spider-Man 2 - 76m drop adjusted Only 3 didn't drop at least 100m and out of those only Spider-Man adjusts to over 500m

I'll take it

Cancelled because I took two bets and am low on points

So... It's The Force Awakens vs. Mockingjay Part 2 for the title now?

No it wouldn't. It'd still be the second highest grossing Marvel film and the first was a box office phenomenon. Its a precedent for sequels to major phenomenons to have large drop offs no matter the quality. Just because it's not a phenomenon doesn't mean the gross is huge, we just all had too high expectations (I'll admit I fell into the incorrect thinking lightning could be caught twice) Examples Jurassic Park to Lost Word (Adjusts 700m to 229m) Star Wars to Empire Strikes Back (adjusts 1.1b to 630m, but the number of the first is lower due to re-runs technically either way still huge drop in attendance) Raiders of the Lost Ark to Indy 2 (adjusts 620m to 430m) Phantom Menace to Attack of the Clones (689m to 422m) Jaws to Jaws 2 (1b to 270m) The Dark Knight to The Dark Knight Rises (603m to 467m) Batman to Batman Returns (511m to 318m) Pirates 2 to Pirates 3 (525m to 365m) The Godfather to Godfather 2 (638m to 206m) Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 (576m to 381m) The same thing will likely happen to Avatar 2 and everyone will flip out crying flop when it "only" does 400 or 500m or so. Really, nothing's gone wrong, Avengers 2 is behaving "normally".

4.Shrek 2

Before people spell doom and gloom over Marvel remember NONE of their films post-Avengers have done less than 200m, and only ONE did less than 250m. OVER half of their phase 2 films have done over 300m, including one being a new, "niche" property. Sure Avengers 2 isn't going to get close to the 600m+ phenomenon of the first but they have become a very consistent brand. Commercially they are what Pixar was last decade.

1.Inside Out 2.Pitch Perfect 2 3.Spy 4.Jurassic World 5.Bridge of Spies 6.The Hateful Eight 7.Pixels 8.Tomorrowland 9.Crimson Peak 10.Star Wars: The Force Awakebs

1.Inside Out 2.Pitch Perfect 2 3.Spy 4.Jurassic World 5.Bridge of Spies 6.The Hateful Eight 7.Pixels 8.Tomorrowland 9.Crimson Peak 10.Star Wars: The Force Awakebs

I bet 50 points to two people Mad Max is over 100m DOM total

Yeah I had around 200m and 540m total then bumped it up after seeing all the hype... Nope bad idea

I think the big problem with the Walking Dead is it never feels like it's going anywhere, to a definite end. It's a problem a lot of TV shows have had, and why I don't like most TV, they start it without an idea of where it's going in the end game. It's one of the reasons I like Game of Thrones so much, I can tell it's all leading to a definite ending and climax. Walking Dead, not so much.

I really don't think we can call out 500m after one weekday number. It's possible it doesn't hit it, but it also has no competition this weekend, and no direct competition the next weekend, it should better than Iron Man 3 at the very least.

1) Will Hot Pursuit open to more than 20 million? No 2) Will D Train open to more than 2.5 million? Yes 3) Will Hot Pursuit have an opening day of more than 7.5 million? No 4) Will Avengers fall less than 58.5%? Yes 5) Will Avengers have a Friday drop of more than 70% from last Friday? No 6) Will Avengers increase more than 50% on Saturday? Yes 7) Will Avengers drop more than 8% on Thursday? No 8) Will F7 fall more than 40%? No 9) Will Age of Adeline make more than F7? No 10) Will Hot Pursuit and F7 make at least 25 million combined? No 11) Will any film decrease more than 50% besides Avengers? Yes 12) Will any film have a Saturday increase of more than 65%? Yes 10/12 2000 11/12 3000 12/12 5000 What films finish in spots: 4 Age of Adaline 7 Cinderella 8 Home 12 Monkey Kingdom 2000 each and a bonus of 3000 if all four spots correct. Bonus 1) What will Avengers gross for the weekend? 85.9m Bonus 2) What will Hot Pursuit gross for the weekend? 16.5m Bonus 3) What will the weekend cume be for Blart, F7 and Cinderella? 9m

I bet 50 points to two people Hot Pursuit OW under Age of Ultron's Previews