The Panda

I just thought it was idiotic

If Dawn follows Rise's Friday increase it'll end up with 37m this weekend and be at a 48% drop. (Summer release as well)It being a sequel I will take a bit off that and predict 34-35m for the weekend.

Is there any reason why Avatar 2 wouldn't drop around 40%? I can't see anything pointing to a smaller drop.

Empire Strikes back had a 50% drop from Star Wars, given that Avatar was less of a hit than Star Wars I went with about 40%. Also, TF2 struck the iron when it was hot, Avatar is having a nearly ten year wait with a story that really felt like it was finished (not much need for a sequel, it stands on its own). Plus the 3D share will be vastly lower.

If Guardians can break 200m it'll kick Spidey out of the top 5

Any reasons why not? Given that there have been more and more acclaimed digital performances lately.

1.Boyhood 2.Gone Girl 3.Exodus: Gods and Kings 4.Unbroken 5.Fury 6.Inside Out 7.Interstellar 8.Guardians of the Galaxy 9.The Hunger Games: Mockingjay 10.Foxcatcher I'll be honest the only reason Interstellar and GotG are so low is because I want Boyhood to get #1

It's getting to a point in cinema were motion capture roles (or voice overs for CGI characters) are becoming more and more common, and many of these actors have been doing phenomenal jobs playing these roles where their own face isn't seen. (Such as ScarJo's voice over in Her, Andy Serkis in Planet of the Apes, etc.) Since motion capture isn't in popular use yet for there to be separate motion capture and voice over categories, would it be fair to add a Best Digital Performance category for actors who play a role that is either a voice over or a motion capture. This could even give credit to Animation voice actors, since they would technically be giving a voice over. This also wouldn't necessarily disqualify them from a best actor/actress nod, but that has never happened for a motion capture or voice over performance anyways. Here is an example of what it could possibly of looked like this year 2014 Andy Serkis for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Bradley Cooper for Guardians of the Galaxy Cate Blanchett for How to Train Your Dragon 2 Chris Pratt for The LEGO Movie Tony Keba for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

To be fair Apes is a very adult oriented action flick

So the top 15 of the summer is looking to be 1.Trans4mers 2.Maleficent 3.X-Men: Days of Future Past 4.Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 5.The Amazing Spider-Man 2 6.Godzilla 7.Guardians of the Galaxy (This could end up anywhere but it's a guaranteed top 15) 8.22 Jump Street 9.How to Train Your Dragon 2 10.Neighbors 11.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Guessing where it ends up) 12.The Fault in Our Stars 13.The Edge of Tomorrow 14.Get on Up/Lucy? (Guessing) 15.Tammy

No Interstellar or Big Hero 6?

Avatar 2 - 460m Avatar 3 - 445m Avatar 4 - 480m

I think it's primarily because the Purge 1 was a home invasion movie, the concept of the Purge was pointless (not that it was all that smart of a concept to begin with). The Purge 2 apparently utilizes the concept more.

The Purge appealed primarily to the YA audience, and the majority of that audience is fairly loyal to the franchises they like (mostly because certain franchises get popular so they want to fit in), and the Purge turns out to be one of those. They'll go into it highly anticipating it and will rarely come out disliking it. That also means it's going to be just as frontloaded as the first.

You are assuming Avatar 2 will have the legs to be out 8 months.

Most talked about movie sequel ever? I think even Age of Ultron or Batman v Superman are talked about more than Avatar 2.

Take out the LOTR example and throw in Star Wars, same situation only Star Wars built a thriving fanbase nearly immediately and kept its cultural resonance. I'm not saying Avatar hasn't made an impact but it's not nearly as resonant as a 700m film should be. It was a heavily successful film, and the second will still make a killing, but id say at bare minimum a 40%+ drop is inevitable domestic wise (I'm personally thinking around 450m) and a drop is definitely due worldwide wise. Star Wars had a bigger cultural influence than avatar (much, much bigger, it isn't comparable which was more impactful) and Empire still had a 50% drop from the first. Without being as ingrained in the current culture as Star Wars was it just points to less sequel anticipation and a large drop-off (plus 3D will not be nearly as effective this time around). It's crazy to think it won't.

I still think Titanic is vastly overrated, however I do think it's a better movie than Avatar, and I was comparing what made Titanic a financial phenomenon to what made Avatar a phenomenon. I was using the gifs as an example, I wasn't correlating them with WoM (obviously it had good WoM, look at its legs), but people posting gifs from a movie is a movie ingraining itself in at least internet culture. There are many other examples I could make, such as go to any store and look at the merchandising. Things such as Harry Potter, or even as 'old' as Lord of the Rings still have a stronger hold on peoples minds than Avatar, for a movie that made 700m at the box office it's failed to create the type of fanbase other films did during their time. The biggest comparison is Star Wars, which is a true example of a box office phenomenon ingraining itself into popular culture. Star Wars undeniably was huge, and became big outside of the cinema world. Where exactly is Avatar's influence now? It's minuscule compared to the size Star Wars was when it came out, yet given how big its box office was and the genre it should be fairly comparable. I never said Avatar's story was disliked by the public, I know it had to be enjoyable to have the WoM, however the story and plot were not the main attraction, it was the eye-popping 3D that had never truly been used in that way before. Again, I was just providing gifs as an example (albeit it was probably a poorer one) but it is an example of modern pop culture. The immersion and effects were primary factors in what made Avatar so popular, it was something completely new and a cinematic experience that hadn't happened on that scale before. That doesn't mean it had a good script nor that the audience would have cared if the script was good or not.

34m, but the Purge 2 has actually been tracking fairly strongly.

I'll take the last one

I was scrolling through IMDb and found this thread about making Guardians of the Galaxy the next Billion Dollar movie, I don't know why but I found it incredibly funny http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2015381/board/thread/232274796 Thought I'd share this thread about box office numbers with y'all.

That's true, I guess they could say on TV Spots that the Purge 2 is the best reviewed film of the weekend or something.

The Purge 2 has the best reviews out of the new releases...That's surprising. I wonder if that could help its Box Office Numbers

1) Will any film make 35 million this weekend? No 2) Will The Purge finish in the top 3? Yes 3) Will Planes Fire and Rescue open to more than 30 million? Yes 4) Will Sex Tape make more than 1.8 mill from previews? No 5) Will The Purge make more than 1.8 mill from previews? Yes 6) Will Apes fall more than 50%? No 7) Will Transformers fall more than 50%? Yes 8) Will Transformers open to more than 4 mill in Italy? Yes 9) Will Tammy fall less than 37%? No 10) Will any film fall less than 20%? Yes 11) Will any film increase by more than 50% on Saturday? Yes 12) Will 22JS have a Friday increase of more than 52.7%? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 1 Apes 2 Planes 3 Purge 2 4 Sex Tape 15 Think Like A Man Too 2000 each 3000 bonus if all correct Bonus 1: What will Purge gross on Friday? 12m Bonus 2: What will the cume be for the three openers? 83m Bonus 3: What will Transformers gross internationally on the weekend? 52m

July 18th: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes