TLK

Jennifer Lawrence is the favorite but Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor categories don't have prohibitive favorites. Now Daniel Day Lewis and Anne Hathaway are clear favorites. Anne Hathaway losing will be an upset. Jennifer Lawrence can easily lose this year and no one will count it as an upset.

What are these reasons that make Riva win unlikely? Riva has won pretty much everywhere she has been nominated. BAFTA is the first time she will go head-to-head against Lawrence and Chastain at a major awards show. If she wins there her chances are no worse than any of her competitors.

I think the point is that Willis is being smart about his roles something Arnie has failed to do. Looper and Moonrise Kingdom were pretty good roles for him and the success of these movies guarantees that he will keep getting good roles. Die Hard 5 may bomb as well but it has better shot at being successful than any of Stallone and Arnold's upcoming movies.

If she wins BAFTA she will have a really good shot at Oscars as well. I think BAFTA will be between Lawrence and Riva. I have a hard time seeing ZDT compete in any category at the BAFTAs.

Deadline's Pete Hammond on Amour's chances. http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/oscars-does-amour-have-a-shot-to-make-academy-history/ Riva also is definitely a real contender to watch for leadactress. At 85 she is the oldest ever to be nominated in the leadcategory. In fact I have a hunch if it were just the actor branch votingshe would take it, but in the finals it is the entire Academy voting. Ihave spoken to several high profile actors who always mention her – andthe film – as their favorite. Her performance has a strong emotionalconnection for people. In fact during a SAG Q&A I moderated severalweeks ago for Nicole Kidman,Kidman actually stopped talking about her own film in order to praiseRiva’s work and urge the voters to see it. When I ran into Kidman at theProducer’s Guild awards last weekend we talked about it. “I told you.We actors know a great performance,” she said before going on in detailabout what made it work so well and why it affected her so deeply. Withthe Academy’s preferential system where voters usually put their mostpassionate choice in the first position on the ballot, Amour isthe type of film likely to elicit number one votes from those whoadmire the movie. In a year where so many films are in play (includinghigher profile and more-buzzed contenders like Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life Of Pi, Les Miserables, and Zero Dark Thirty),a split could produce a scenario where the film, which is actually theAustrian entry in the foreign language race, could benefit, particularlyfrom those members who aren’t eligible to vote in the Foreign Languagecategory (where rules state you must prove you have seen all fivenominees). At any rate it’s always fun to speculate. And the Guildcontests which usually are good indicators are not helpful at all since Amour hasn’tfigured in any of them for various reasons. A downside is that somepeople do find it too hard to watch, too close to home and that couldhurt its chances with a segment of voters. But everyone seems to praisethe performances. In the actress race could Riva become only the sixth person to everwin an Oscar for a performance solely in a foreign language? It’sentirely possible if enough of the entire Academy actually see the film.Front runners Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both deliverbrilliant performances and have the most heat (particularly Lawrenceafter her SAG win), and Riva hasn’t been in Hollywood campaigning or onthe Q&A circuit at all this entire season, but there does seem to bea sort of groundswell of support I am detecting. It would certainly be anice birthday present. The French star, known best for 1960′s classic Hiroshima Mon Amour, turns 86 years old on Oscar day February 24th. Barker confirms she will be coming to the Academy Awards.

Does lawrence have a cameo in the movie?

Great number for SLP. Horrible for BTTH. It won't even get close to $5 million.

He is blaming Americans but it isn't like TLS, parker and Bullet are going to make much from the overseas markets either. People have moved on from the generic action flicks everywhere.

Legendary going to Disney will be awful news as Disney will completely control the Hollywood blockbuster slate. I think Paramount will be a better fit after their loss of Dreamworks Animation.

I think people were wrong to jump to conclusion when TLS bombed. There has been a generational shift and these sort of movies are dead at the Box Office. Stallone and Arnie will have to reinvent themselves if they want to be a draw at the Box Office.

THR Friday Estimates Warm Bodies 9-10 million Bullet 2 million

I'll be surprised if it didn't break $20 million. Two movies targeted towards teens made over $20 million this weekend last year and this is getting really good reviews.

I think Chastain was done the day the Oscar nominations came out. The race is between Lawrence (favorite) and Riva but a lot depends on BAFTA. If Lawrence wins BAFTA she is going to be the prohibitive favorite and only a backlash will prevent her from winning the Academy award.

At this point I will be surprised if ZDT wins anything at the Oscars. Sucks for Chastian because I think she would've have a much better chance without all the accompanying baggage that the movie has.

Jon Weisman ‏ @jonweisman Five films have won PGA feature honor w/o Oscar directing nom: Driving Miss Daisy, Apollo 13, Moulin Rouge, Little Miss Sunshine & now Argo.

I think BAFTA may be more important than we think. Today SLP won a major Aussie award. If it can somehow win BAFTA then it is the frontrunner. My theory is that ZDT's demise is fueling Argo's resurgence. Then there is the possibility that a lot of industry people were rooting for Affleck and the AMPAS diss has generated some sympathy for the movie.

Yeah, this is getting bizarre. Argo has won GG and PGA but AMPAS didn't even nominate its director. I don't consider Argo to be a frontrunner even after this win.

Entertainment Business reporter for LA Times.

Ben Fritz@benfritz CinemaScores: Hansel & Gretel B, Parker B+, Movie 43 D

Ben Fritz ‏@benfritz All three new movies looking like disappointments. Hansel & Gretel under 20, Parker under 8, Movie 43 under 5 (!)

Pretty weak numbers overall.

Parker will make about $50 million WW just like other recent Statham movies. This is a perfectly fine number for someone like him and there is no need for him to make direct-to-DVD movies just yet. JLo on the other hand is in a world of hurt if this movie cannot do better than other Statham movies.

These are estimates from 4-5 hours back.

So Octavia Spencer is the real deal then. Most Oscar winning actresses disappear after their wins.