TLK

Lincoln has some pretty heavyweight backers and the academy likes the movie ( 12 nominations) so it will be tough to beat. Spielberg scored a coup with Bill Clinton today and that will play well with a lot of AMPAS voters.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/01/box-office-gangster-squad-opens-with-650k-for-possible-20m-and-1-in-tight-race-with-zero-dark-thirty-expansion/#utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter 1. Zero Dark Thirty (Annapurna/Sony) Week 4 (Runs 2,937) R Friday $9.0M, Saturday $9.4M, Weekend $24.5M, Cume $30.0M 2. A Haunted House (Open Road) NEW [Runs 2,160] R Friday $6.7M, Saturday $7.6M, Weekend $18.0M 3. Gangster Squad (Village Roadshow/Warner Bros) NEW (Runs 3,103) R Friday $6.6M, Saturday $6.3M, Weekend $17.0M 4. Django Unchained (Weinsteiin) Week 3 [Runs 3,012] R Friday $3.4M, Saturday $4.6M, Weekend $14.5M, Cume $128.8M 5. Les Miserables (Working Title/Universal) Week 3 [Runs 2,928] PG13 Friday $2.8M, Saturday $4.1M, Weekend $9.5M, Cume $118.6M 6. The Hobbit 3D (MGM/Warner Bros) Week 5 [Runs 3,012] PG13 Friday $2.3M, Weekend $8.0M, Cume $277.0M 7. Lincoln (DreamWorks/Fox/Disney) Week 10 [Runs 2,027] PG13 Friday $1.8M, Weekend $6.3M, Cume $152.6M 8. Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D (Lionsgate) Week 2 [Runs 2,659] R Friday $1.8M (-82%), Weekend $5.5M, Cume $31.6M 7. Parental Guidance (Fox) Week 3 [Runs 2,957] PG Friday $1.7M, Weekend $5.8M, Cume $60.4M 10. Jack Reacher (Skydance/Paramount) Week 4 [Runs 2,707] PG13 Friday $1.5M, Weekend $5.0M, Cume $72.8M

Bad number for GS. There is no reason for it to be more frontloaded than AHH.

Ben Fritz ‏@benfritz Friday numbers indicate Zero Dark headed for a 25+ weekend while Gangster Squad and Haunted House both below 20

This is exactly the point I have been making. There are very few people who will see the performances by Riva, Lawrence and Chastain side by side and go with anyone other than Riva. Sometimes things are not very complicated. Riva is the favorite, IMO, because she has given the best performance of the 20 acting nominees this year. She is even better than DDL. However, I won't count out either Lawrence or Chastain. They are both prior nominees and have a few things going for them but if it comes down to merit, it has to be Riva.

I think Riva is the strongest performer and Wallis the weakest but this is one of those years where I will be fine with any of the 5 nominees winning this award.

I am talking about the legacy of the Oscars and the AMPAS voters. You do realize why Bigelow wasn't even nominated. Don't you?

You can make a similar argument about Amour. It has BP and BD nominations but actress is the one that it can win. AMPAS members value their legacy and I just don't see a Jennifer Lawrence glorified Best Supporting Actress performance beating out Riva.

^^^ I agree that Affleck is the real loser. Haneke deserves a nom for being one of the best directors in the world today. Hooper and Bigelow are Oscar winners. Hooper's movie is just not that good and Bigelow did a poor job of defending her controversial movie. You can make a good case for Tarantino but I don't think he has a shot at winning an Oscar unless he tries to do something more conventional. His last few movies have been tribute/rip-offs of B-movies and Academy has treated them as such.

Yeah, I don't think people get the dynamics in play here. She didn't have Harvey or a major studio machine behind her and she still made it through. It never happens with foreign language movies unless they are big commerical hits. Now every AMPAS member gets to compare her performance directly with Lawrence (who isn't even a lead) and Chastain ( who is in a movie that hasn't gotten much traction with AMPAS members). Amour has won every European award over the past 8 months and Best Actress is the category where it has its best shot at the Oscars.

It didn't help Viola Davis last year.

None of this is relevant. She got in without a major studio backing her. Amour has been nominated for BP,BD etc. which means that every AMPAS voter is now going to watch the movie. Riva is flat out better than any of her competitors this year so she is the favorite for now.

Great Performance + Lifetime Achievement + Recognition of two generation of French actors by proxy.

Yep and Riva is ahead because not only her performance is better than Lawrence's in SLP, she is also the sort of actorthat the AMPAS members like to celebrate.

If you take a step back then nothing has really changed. Lincoln is the frontrunner and LoP is the dark horse if Lincoln slips (not happening). SLP is probably #3. Argo and ZDT are both DOA.

I think the Best Actress race is between Riva and Lawrence with Chastain slightly behind these two. With Riva I have always believed that her biggest hurdle was the nomination. Now that she has the nomination she will do very well in head-to-head matchups with other actors.1. Riva2. Lawrence3. Chastain4. Watts5. Wallis

House will win the weekend. Thing about ZDT is that it has already opened in many of the biggest markets so you are not going to see a huge opening weeekend. Around $20 million for ZDT and maybe $30 million for A Haunted House.

Expected list. The Master appears to be dead for good.

Hathaway should've won for "Rachel Getting Married". It is unfortunate that the academy was so in love with the terrible "The Reader".

I don't consider it an influential movie. It was just a one-off phenomena.

Not going to get into a debate but Spielberg is a more influential director than Cameron even though Cameron is killing it at the Box Office these past 15 years. Movies like ET, Jaws, Jurassic Park and Indiana Jones changed filmmaking. Movies like Saving Private Ryan, Schindlers' List and now Lincoln have proven Spielberg's mettle as a serious filmmaker. Cameron has made a lot of money for himself and for his studios but his influence begins and ends with the Terminator movies. Jury is still out on Avatar as 3D has been treading water for the last couple of years.

Top 25 sellers for the year.Snow White has sold more discs than MI4 and the numbers don't include digital downloads where it has also done well from what I understand. And yes, they need to fast-track a sequel to Prometheus as well.http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top-sellers/top-25-sellers-year-date-through-121612

Actors have little control in these type of situations. If the studio wants it to happen then it will happen. A sequel isn't a lock in this instance and they are going to look at Worldwide home media numbers and will proceed accordingly. Biggest problem with Clash was that it put up relatively unimpressive home media numbers which should've been a big tell that the movie didn't go down well with the General Audience. Snow White is doing just fine on the home media front so if they can keep the budget down for the sequel they can make a profitable movie.

Yep. If its overseas total is weak, it isn't going to be much profitable.

I think Sally Field and Helen Hunt have a much better chance with AMPAS members than most people are willing to admit. The most important thing in Hathaway's favor is that Les Miz isn't likely to win either BP or BD and AMPAS members may want to award the movie nonetheless so she is the obvious choice.