Deadline's Pete Hammond on Amour's chances.
http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/oscars-does-amour-have-a-shot-to-make-academy-history/
Riva also is definitely a real contender to watch for leadactress. At 85 she is the oldest ever to be nominated in the leadcategory. In fact I have a hunch if it were just the actor branch votingshe would take it, but in the finals it is the entire Academy voting. Ihave spoken to several high profile actors who always mention her – andthe film – as their favorite. Her performance has a strong emotionalconnection for people. In fact during a SAG Q&A I moderated severalweeks ago for Nicole Kidman,Kidman actually stopped talking about her own film in order to praiseRiva’s work and urge the voters to see it. When I ran into Kidman at theProducer’s Guild awards last weekend we talked about it. “I told you.We actors know a great performance,” she said before going on in detailabout what made it work so well and why it affected her so deeply. Withthe Academy’s preferential system where voters usually put their mostpassionate choice in the first position on the ballot, Amour isthe type of film likely to elicit number one votes from those whoadmire the movie. In a year where so many films are in play (includinghigher profile and more-buzzed contenders like Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life Of Pi, Les Miserables, and Zero Dark Thirty),a split could produce a scenario where the film, which is actually theAustrian entry in the foreign language race, could benefit, particularlyfrom those members who aren’t eligible to vote in the Foreign Languagecategory (where rules state you must prove you have seen all fivenominees). At any rate it’s always fun to speculate. And the Guildcontests which usually are good indicators are not helpful at all since Amour hasn’tfigured in any of them for various reasons. A downside is that somepeople do find it too hard to watch, too close to home and that couldhurt its chances with a segment of voters. But everyone seems to praisethe performances.
In the actress race could Riva become only the sixth person to everwin an Oscar for a performance solely in a foreign language? It’sentirely possible if enough of the entire Academy actually see the film.Front runners Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both deliverbrilliant performances and have the most heat (particularly Lawrenceafter her SAG win), and Riva hasn’t been in Hollywood campaigning or onthe Q&A circuit at all this entire season, but there does seem to bea sort of groundswell of support I am detecting. It would certainly be anice birthday present. The French star, known best for 1960′s classic Hiroshima Mon Amour, turns 86 years old on Oscar day February 24th. Barker confirms she will be coming to the Academy Awards.