TLK

Self-indulgence is exactly right and on top of it all of Apatow's family members are in the movie.

This is 40 can still make $70 million. Probably a bit more so I don't get the doom and gloom.

$18-20 million will be excellent for Jack Reacher. A 5-6X multiplier means over $100 million domestic.

^^^ Exactly right. Three movies will make more money than two movies. I hated it when they split Hobbit into three but it is what it is.

BTW, UK bookmakers have Affleck running second as of right now with Spielberg the favorite.http://www.easyodds.com/sports-betting/tv-and-awards-betting/awards/oscars/outright/best-director.html

I don't consider him to be a frontrunner either but this is a game of momentum and something like a Senate run can definitely put him over the top. To be honest, I don't think he will run for senate just yet. He is only 40 and his career has just been resurrected. He will probably stick with Hollywood for another decade or so even if he has political ambitions.

He is already in a pretty strong position. Look up all the actors who have won Best Director in the past. SAG and WGA has a pretty strong presence in AMPAS and they love their actors/writers nominated for this award.

Here is the politico article where he didn't answer the question http://www.politico.com/blogs/click/2012/12/ben-affleck-mum-on-senate-run-152441.html Ben Affleck mum on Senate run Actor Ben Affleck is refusing to comment on reports that he’s being touted as a possible senatorial candidate in Massachusetts. In Washington to raise awareness about the violence plaguing Congo, Affleck was also scheduled to meet Wednesday with other lawmakers, including Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), who is widely believed to be replacing Hillary Clinton as secretary of state, which would open a special election for a Senate seat in Massachusetts. “That’s not what I’m here to talk about,” Affleck told POLITICO. “I’m here to talk about what role we can play in making the Eastern Congo a better place.” Earlier this week, reports surfaced that he was being touted as a potential candidate for Senate in Massachusetts. Affleck campaigned for Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in her race against freshman Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in November. There is also speculation that Brown would be interested in running again.

There are rumors that Affleck is going to run for senate. One of the trade mags (Variety or THR) reported that he just dropped out of some movie that was going to start shooting in April/May right when the special elections are likely to be held. If this is true, consider him the new front-runner for Best Director.

ZDT is a controversial movie for many reasons and maybe I will be proven wrong eventually but I don't think it is an Oscars frontrunner for the same reasons.Secondly, movies about Iraq,Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda never get good ratings from the audience. It will probably finish with an okayish 7.5 on IMDB after.all the trolling has been done.

Wednesday drops for holdovers will be interesting. Cheap Tuesday + Theaters/Screen loss

I was expecting a big drop for Skyfall. Sony has over-estimated it every weekend.

So ROTG dropped from the estimates. We may have a replay of last weekend with everything dropping from the estimates.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/peter-jacksons-hobbit-eyeing-82-402969 Box Office Report: 'The Hobbit' Eyeing $82 Million-Plus Domestic Opening eter Jackson's 3D fantasy-adventure -- set 60 years before the events chronicled in The Lord of the Rings -- is pacing to debut in the $82 million to $90 million range, easily besting the $77.2 million opening of Will Smith's I Am Legend on the same weekend in 2007. Box office observers, however, are cautioning that the elementary school shooting in Newton, Conn., that left 26 people dead, including 20 children, could dampen moviegoing among families. The killing rampage is a reminder of the mass theater shooting in Colorado last summer that left 12 dead and 58 others injured.

I think the TRON world was very dark and bland which didn't help it reach a very large audience. I hope they address that in the sequel.

We DON'T KNOW if the midnights are bigger now than they were before Aurora. BD2 reached 30 million primarily with the help of 10 PM shows. Almost every movie released since Aurora has posted terrible midnights.

Alan Arkin is probably the worst Oscar winner of past decade with Little Miss Sunshine. He shouldn't even have been nominated. Every other actor in the movie is better than him, including Steve Carrell.

Good midnight numbers when you consider that there were very, very few 10 PM shows. Midnights have been dead since Aurora and I don't think Twilight would've come close to $25 million without 10 PM shows. I think 120 million is happening as this is a movie that will play well with kids and should have strong Saturday/Sunday.

Life Of Pi is my dark horse contender for BP win. This is a strong year for frontrunners so the probablity of LOP winning isn't that high but it will be sort of a poetic justice if the frontrunners stumble and an Ang Lee movie wins BP.

Globes are influential. Academy voting begins on 17th and you are kidding yourself if you think these nominations won't affect Oscars nominations.

I don't think AMPAS members will completely ignore The Master and they like Amy Adams. Maggie Smith isn't campaigning and Kidman is so that may be the difference this year.

I don't have problem with most of their nominees but it is a shame that most good blockbusters get completely ignored and then these award committees bitch that young people don't watch their shows. There were some quality blockbusters they could've been nominated ( THG, TDKR, Skyfall, TA etc.) but Nope. Of the 30 actors that were nominated only one actress is under 25 and two are around 30. The rest are all older. This is a huge blindspot and it needs to be fixed as most movie goers are under 30.

^^^ I got it right for GG (at least) this time. I never ever get Best Directors right.

Cheap tuesdays are huge in Canada and the book/movie has a very strong Canadian connection.

Peter Bergen ( google him) is one of the most well-respected international affairs journalist in the world. He was seen the movie twice , including an early cut. Read the full article but this is his conclusion. http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/10/opinion/bergen-zero-dark-thirty/index.html