TLK

If JLaw wins SAG then Chastain is done and Jaw is the runaway favorite. However, BAFTA will be the one to watch for and Riva can make a strong run if she can win in Britain. The only thing that is stopping me from anointing JLaw is that I don't believe Academy wants to award ZDT so Chastain may be a weaker candidate than she appears to be. This can hurt JLaw ( Riva getting most of the anti-Chastain votes) as much as it helps her.

Park Chan-Wook is up there with any director in the world right now. I am glad that Stoker is getting good reviews which means that he will be making more Hollywood movies.

It is the most pirated movie because it stayed in limited release for an eternity.

Fox bought Beasts for $1 million.Edit - Here is a very good NYTimes article on the business side of Sundance.http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/22/business/media/at-sundance-early-sales-are-mixed-with-caution.html?_r=0

Yep, $10 million + at least $15 million in promotion means that they think that movie can make $50 million+ domestically. Usually Sundance sales are in the six figures to $2 million range and the movies end up on VOD in their opening weekend.

I didn't notice this before but she looks completely overwhelmed in this gif. I have some problems with her speech but this was obviously a big deal for her.

I have my theories but I still can't come up with a rational explanation as to why that movie did so well everywhere.

My fear is that SAG will give it to Alan Arkin because they want to honor Affleck and Argo.

Riva won Best Actress from London Critics. She will have to win BAFTA to be a real contender at the Oscars. If JLaw wins SAG and BAFTA then I don't see her not winning the Oscar.

This may be the best place to post this. May have some influence on BAFTA . ‘Amour’ Takes Best Film, Actress, Screenplay At London Critics Awards FILM – Amour FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Rust and Bone DOCUMENTARY – The Imposter BRITISH FILM – Berberian Sound Studio ACTOR – Joaquin Phoenix – The Master ACTRESS – Emmanuelle Riva – Amour SUPPORTING ACTOR Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables BRITISH ACTOR Toby Jones – Berberian Sound Studio BRITISH ACTRESS Andrea Riseborough – Shadow Dancer YOUNG BRITISH PERFORMER OF THE YEAR – Tom Holland – The Impossible DIRECTOR – Ang Lee – Life of Pi SCREENWRITER – Michael Haneke – Amour BREAKTHROUGH BRITISH FILMMAKER – Alice Lowe & Steve Oram, writers – Sightseers TECHNICAL ACHIEVEMENT AWARD – Life of Pi – Bill Westenhofer, visual effects DILYS POWELL AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN FILM – Helena Bonham Carter TOP 10 FILMS 1. Amour 2. The Master 3. Life Of Pi 4. Argo 5. Beasts Of The Southern Wild 6. Zero Dark Thirty 7. Once Upon A Time In Anatolia 8. Django Unchained 9. Tabu 10. Rust And Bone

Maybe. He is going to get more chances to prove that he is a draw. He will have to make better choices like Eastwood did when he hit his 60s or be like Stallone and focus on producing ensemble action movies that will make him a ton of money.

I think you are comparing apples to oranges. Pitt was in an offbeat movie and it bombed to no one's surprise. Arnold is an action star making his comeback in an action movie after nearly a decade. This one will hurt.

Both movies would've made identical amount with or without Chastain. They didn't even highlight Chastain in ZDT during most of the promo campaign and January horror movies regularly post these type of numbers.

Illegal downloading is huge. The estimated revenue losses for studios are in the $25 billion annual range.

Truth is that nobody knew. His last big movie was T3 which came out in 2003. The important thing is that The Last Stand underperformed the already low expectations.

Actually leatherface is right. Men don't go to movies anymore and there is a consederable research backing it. Most researchers think illegal downloading is the real culprit as men are more likely to be illegal downloaders. Most studios are adjusting accordingly as you don't see them throwing big money at "male genre" (action).

Arnold may be done as an action star. He may have to pull a Clint Eastwood if he wants to stay relevant for another decade. People like to shit on Tom Cruise but The Last Stand's performance makes Jack Reacher's run look so much more impressive. $80 million domestic for a generic non-franchise action is no joke these days.

Non-franchise action movies don't make money anymore unless you can somehow get Tom Cruise or Denzel Washington. Both of these actors are good for 80-100 million domestic, which is pathetic compared to 1990s action genre numbers.Edit - I don't think Mama is going to make $25 million+. All horror movies are frontloaded and this isn't going to be an exception.

She is a very good actress and she deserved to win an Oscar for "Rachel getting Married" a few years ago but she is annoying me with her over-the-top underdog act.

I have always liked Hathaway but she has been clocking 10/10 on my Annoyancemeter recently. She needs to chill. Natalie Portman was in a similar situation a couple of years ago and she really handled it well.

No one will care about The Artist 5-10 years from now but to be fair to the AMPAS members the other options weren't that good either.

I have never liked Chastain for some reason. I though she was the most over-rated person in The Help ensemble as well.BTW, Riva may not have been nominated for GG but the audience gave a spontaneous applause when Haneke mentioned his two leads so she had some support in the room.

I have my doubts. Argo didn't even come close to maximizing its awards nomination potential while the other two did. This is usually a good tell whether the acdemy members liked the movie or not.

I think Argo and ZDT are both DOA. If we were limited to 5 BP nominees neither would've made it through. It is pretty clear that Academy went with The Beasts and Amour over those two and both these movies are the ones that academy voters like - movies with "heart" over cold procedural drama.

Yep. I don't think Academy will go with Argo. There is no reason to vote Argo Best Picture and not even nominate Affleck.