TLK

She is a former child actor. None of them have great techniques, even the ones internet salivates over , like Natalie Portman and Ryan Gosling. I doubt a Charlie's Angels role will be that technically complex. If Drew Barrymore can do it so can Kristen Stewart.

Elizabeth Banks is a better director than McG so that's a plus. It will be interesting to see how well Sony' strategy of rebooting well-known IPs for cheap will work. They have a ton of such movies in the pipeline. The Girl in the Spider's Web is their first test this year. They are also making the MIB movie for cheap by cutting out Will Smith's big salary/back-end.

So $100 million OW is not happening for Ant-man. I think this leaves us with only three possible $100 million openers for the rest of the year - Venom , Aquaman (if it moves to November) and Fantastic Beasts 2.

Hell or High Water is very good. Wind River is a TV movie and I have no idea why it was praised so much.

Its Tuesday-Wednesday jump isn't that bad but it will probably need Incredibles 2's levels of walkups to get to $135 million+

Doctor Sleep is so far removed from The Shining that I think a lot of people will be disappointed.

JW2's Monday presales (9310) are quite a bit lower than Solo(13688), Deadpool 2 (23134) and Incredibles 2 (20872). http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

Fandango Presales Volume. Date Name Monday Tuesday Wednesday 04/06/18 A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665 04/06/18 Blockers 504 1106 2931 04/13/18 Rampage 705 1508 4109 04/13/18 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133 04/20/18 Super Troopers 2 2825 3447 6811 04/20/18 I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423 04/27/18 Avengers 3 49836 54892 68826 05/04/18 Overboard 84 409 1044 05/11/18 Breaking In 727 1204 2899 05/11/18 Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010 05/18/18 Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212 05/18/18 Show Dogs 6 128 369 05/18/18 Book Club 836 1599 3283 05/25/18 Solo : Star Wars 13688 15855 28533 06/01/18 Action Point 17 48 197 06/01/18 Adrift 63 308 1268 06/01/18 Upgrade 9 119 522 06/08/18 Hotel Artemis 28 177 507 06/08/18 Hereditary 669 1201 3108 06/08/18 Oceans 8 3048 4429 11225 06/15/18 Incredibles 2 20872 23430 39337 06/15/18 Tag 314 660 1448 http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

This is slightly off-topic but since this is the trailers week I went back and looked at how some of the older trailers were doing. Mary Poppins official trailer has 6.8 million views and Alita:Battle Angel has 7.7 million. Both of these are December movies so they have all the time in the world but Mary Poppins views seem a bit low for a highly anticipated Disney movie.

Fandango Presales Volume. Date Name Monday Tuesday Wednesday 04/06/18 A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665 04/06/18 Blockers 504 1106 2931 04/13/18 Rampage 705 1508 4109 04/13/18 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133 04/20/18 Super Troopers 2 2825 3447 6811 04/20/18 I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423 04/27/18 Avengers 3 49836 54892 68826 05/04/18 Overboard 84 409 1044 05/11/18 Breaking In 727 1204 2899 05/11/18 Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010 05/18/18 Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212 05/18/18 Show Dogs 6 128 369 05/18/18 Book Club 836 1599 3283 05/25/18 Solo : Star Wars 13688 15855 28533 06/01/18 Action Point 17 48 197 06/01/18 Adrift 63 308 1268 06/01/18 Upgrade 9 119 522 06/08/18 Hotel Artemis 28 177 507 06/08/18 Hereditary 669 1201 3108 06/08/18 Oceans 8 3048 4429 11225 http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

Fandango Presales Volume. Date Name Monday Tuesday Wednesday 04/06/18 A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665 04/06/18 Blockers 504 1106 2931 04/13/18 Rampage 705 1508 4109 04/13/18 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133 04/20/18 Super Troopers 2 2825 3447 6811 04/20/18 I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423 04/27/18 Avengers 3 49836 54892 68826 05/04/18 Overboard 84 409 1044 05/11/18 Breaking In 727 1204 2899 05/11/18 Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010 05/18/18 Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212 05/18/18 Show Dogs 6 128 369 05/18/18 Book Club 836 1599 3283 05/25/18 Solo : Star Wars 13688 15855 28533 06/01/18 Action Point 17 48 197 06/01/18 Adrift 63 308 1268 06/01/18 Upgrade 9 119 522 http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt Adrift's presales are in the same ballpark as Overboard but different audiences so who knows. Action Point and Upgrade both have terrible presales.

Maybe that's the solution now but I think LF's problems go back to the decisions they made with TFA itself. Either they had to commit to the three original leads or go with a brand new storyline. They chose the midway path and that just didn't work with either the existing fans or more casual blockbuster movie viewers. JJ can't do much with the three original leads now and I am not sure if a lot of the disgruntled fans are on board with whatever storylines and characters they have left after TLJ.

My issue with Star Wars is that it has been running on nostalgia since the original trilogy and they may have finally run out of it. These movies haven't brought anything new to the table since the 1980s and this is the biggest reason why they haven't caught on in markets that have no nostalgia for Star Wars.

Studio can afford it. Yes, they can afford it but they paid $4 billion for Star Wars and are far from recouping their investment. They have a lot more riding on SW9 now after Solo's mediocre performance.

$300 million + budget is hardly surprising. Most of these movies have an initial budget of $200 million+ and when you fire the directors after 80% of the movie is shot and then proceed to reshoot almost all of it, the budget is going to balloon. Based on the way the Deadline comment is phrased the budget may well be closer to $350 million rather than $300 million.

Disney's first and only priority must be to ensure that SW9 is good enough that it doesn't drop much from SW8 because that's a realistic possibility. Star Wars franchise will survive a Solo flop but it can't survive a SW9 failure.

Fandango Presales Volume. Date Name Monday Tuesday Wednesday 04/06/18 A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665 04/06/18 Blockers 504 1106 2931 04/13/18 Rampage 705 1508 4109 04/13/18 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133 04/20/18 Super Troopers 2 2825 3447 6811 04/20/18 I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423 04/27/18 Avengers 3 49836 54892 68826 05/04/18 Overboard 84 409 1044 05/11/18 Breaking In 727 1204 2899 05/11/18 Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010 05/18/18 Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212 05/18/18 Show Dogs 6 128 369 05/18/18 Book Club 836 1599 3283 05/25/18 Solo : Star Wars 13688 15855 28533 http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt Solo had a good 80% Tuesday-Wednesday jump but still lags Deadpool 2's Wednesday presales by a significant margin. Walkups will completely determine whether it performs in line with the tracking or not.

Tuesday update : Solo 15855 transactions. That's up nearly 16% over Monday. Deadpool 2 had a 25% increase and A:IW had a small 10% jump but it had already sold an enormous number of tickets coming into the week so that was expected. It doesn't look good for Solo if these numbers are representative of the bigger picture.

Solo's Monday transactions on Fandango : 13688. Comparison Deadpool 2 : 23134 A:IW : 49836 Source - http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

Fox didn't have a lot of options because of the World cup next month. Ideally Deadpool would've been the Memorial weekend release and Solo moved to December.

DP2 is performing in line with its tracking but I think Solo will significantly underperform its tracking next week.

Fandango Presales Volume. Date Name Monday Tuesday Wednesday 04/06/18 A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665 04/06/18 Blockers 504 1106 2931 04/13/18 Rampage 705 1508 4109 04/13/18 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133 04/20/18 Super Troopers 2 2825 3447 6811 04/20/18 I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423 04/27/18 Avengers 3 49836 54892 68826 05/04/18 Overboard 84 409 1044 05/11/18 Breaking In 727 1204 2899 05/11/18 Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010 05/18/18 Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212 05/18/18 Show Dogs 6 128 369 05/18/18 Book Club 836 1599 3283 http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt Book Club has better presales than last week's openers. Deadpool 2's numbers are looking good as well. Monday sales were around 46.5% of comparative A:IW sales and had jumped to around 60% on Wednesday.

FWIW, Book Club's presales for Monday/Tuesday are closely tracking I feel pretty.

This looks like a low budget indie drama with Predators. Predator franchise hasn't been a draw with the general public in the 21st century so they needed a trailer much, much better than this.