Ent

Good thursday drop

And Jonah Hex....

yep, i think you are spot on. What will be interresting also is to see how it behaves once Jungle Book is released, if that movie impacts its BO trajectory significantly or not.

Jungle Book is opening soon there. Are there any form of hype yet ?

I kinda agree with you however, when it comes to the genre, there are no $1b CBM that has been rotten yet. Hell, there are no CBM in the $1b club that isn't certified fresh. We really are in unchattered territory and it will all depend on how it can retain the momentum it gained on opening weekend in a maximum of key territories. It is feasible but it won't be easy. Those movies you mentioned got there backed heavily by at least two out of three of the key asian markets (China, Japan, South Korea). The Transformers franchise was alreday doing around $150M in China when the highest CBM were doing a fifth of that. Pirates is one of those franchise that do $100M in Japan. Those franchises doat least well in every single territory while exploding in others, mainly asian ones. So without the heavy backing of those markets, BvS really needs to perform bigger in South America and Europe, and keeps its advance on the domestic market where its trajectory is still $350+M.

$1B isn't dead at all. I personally think it will end up around $1.01B - $1.02B if it doesn't suddenly crash in one or two of the most important markets and keep its BO trajectory. That said, it should do its best to retain any revenues and show decent legs during the next two weeks. Next weekend will already tells the story, if the wom is enough to get there. I got a feeling that Jungle Book may break out and limit its legs in some important markets (it already opens in Russia, on April the 7th) while Civil War is round the corner as it opens in four weeks in many overseas markets.

Only markets left are Poland and Myanmar

Most Marvel movies, AOU included, don't open in every territory at the same time contrary to BvS. They usually start releasing the movie overseas 10 days prior the domestic one while China and Japan are often delayed post the domestic release. So all in all, it deflates the ww opening weekend numbers when taken during the domestic opening weekend.

mmmm....no. Contrary to other CBM that roll all of their markets at different time, it has opened in every market bar a small one. It won't hit $1.2B let alone $1.5B. It will either fall between TDK and TDKR numbers or between TDKR and IM3.

What is BvS trajectory at this stage ? $25m final ? $30m ? $35m ?

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 8m8 minutes ago #BatmanvSuperman dailies: FRI $82M (incl $27.7M pre-shows), SAT $50.9M (-38%). SUN - WB projects -27% at $37.2M. $170.1M total.

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 38m38 minutes ago #ChinaBoxOffice BATMAN V SUPERMAN earned est. $15M on Sunday (-33%). China's 3-day debut is $57.1M #BatmanvSuperman

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 2m2 minutes ago #BatmanvSuperman stats: 62% male, 60% over 25. $40k wknd avg. $18M from #IMAX, 11% of wknd gross.

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 30m30 minutes ago #ChinaBoxOffice BATMAN V SUPERMAN earned est. $15M on Sunday (-33%). China's 3-day debut is $57.1M #BatmanvSuperman

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 6m6 minutes ago Bunny cop hit #Zootopia knocking on $700M door. $65.6M global wknd pushing cume to $696.7M. Shatters $200M in China today.

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 2m2 minutes ago BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE opened with an estimated $170.1M this weekend. #BatmanVSuperman

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 1m1 minute ago Walt Disney Studios passed $1B internationally this weekend, the fastest its ever reached that threshold. Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 3m3 minutes ago Overseas, ZOOTOPIA cracked open another $42.5M, $450M+ total, and nearly $700M worldwide.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 2m2 minutes ago Disney's ZOOTOPIA was down just -38% in its 4th weekend, collecting $23.1M, $240M total.

With Asia already showing signs of bad wom, including China that is now tracking for a final BO around $90M, $100M if lucky, aka less than Antman, I think that TDKR numbers ww is where it is ultimately heading. In the best case scenario, it will hit $1.1 but IM3, it wont. People really underestimate IM3's numbers and IM in general as a massive draw abroad in every continent. This movie basicly did $680m on the foreign front without China. As a comparison, TA did $800M sans China and AOU did $700M sans China. IM3 basicly did avengerèsque numbers abroad on its own and did it by being greatly received in every single big and average sized market in every continent. Also, contrary to the domestic market IM3 had great legs abroad in most markets. So with Asia doing lackluster numbers and two of the big three already showing signs of bad word of mouth in full effect (China and South Korea), i don't see BvS approaching IM3 numbers abroad. It is currently doing good to great numbers in a lot of markets but not in every single important one as it needs to to have a chance to hit IM3 numbers.

I personally think and have always thought that CW, aka IM4 with most of the Avengers, Panther and Spidey being valuable replacement to Hulk and Thor, will open in the vicinity of AOU pushed by stellar ratings but have better legs pushing its total around $470 - $480M. But back to BvS. Since it is now likely to open around Harry Potter Deathly hallow part 2, it will be interresting to see how BvS fares against that movie and what film will ultimately comes on top domestically since foreign wise and worldwide wise, BvS won't even come close to Harry Potter last installment.

I think he, she means that it's not just DC movies that are not popular in Japan but all CBM, Marvel ones included, except those where IM or Spiderman appear in.

You mean the three icons equals the flavour of the month ?

Ouch ! Days ago, i thought that it will end in the vicinity of IM3 rather than around SW7 and now it could even miss hitting Antman ? That's two false starts in a row for DC.

Final BO trajectory around Antman ?

I respectfully disagree. I rememberred clearly how the masses were literally over the moon when MOS sequel was officially said to be Batman VS Supes, people speculating about Bale reprising his role and being offered RDJ kinda of money to do so. True the casting of Affleck was controversial but that contraversy was on par with the incredible fervour this movie ignititted, especially among DC fans who saw it as a way to finally compete with Marvel on the same level. Then the Comicon trailer was released and it was universally praised. Most were saying that it was the main contender for the biggest and most critically praised 2016 CBM. The mood changed drastically after that 3rd trailer dropped in december. But before it, it was the honeymoon with the general audience and the critics who overwhelmingly thought this movie that have been hailed countless of times as the one everyone have been waitring for thirty years will offer something new and fresh to Marvel stale formula. That was the recurrent rhetoric until december 2015.