BadAtGender

Jan 20: Split Jan 27: Abstain Feb 3: Abstain Feb 10: Lego Batman Feb 17: Lego Batman Feb 24: Abstain

1. Will Split open to more than $15M? Yes 2. Will Split open to more than $20M? 3000 Yes 3. Will Split open to more than $25M? Yes 4. Will XXX open to more than $15M? Yes 5. Will XXX open to more than $20M? 2000 Yes 6. Will XXX open to more than $25M? No 7. Will XXX open higher than Split? No 8. Will The Founder open to more than $5M? No 9. Will The Founder open to more than $7.5M? 2000 No 10. Will Gavin Stone open to more than $2M? No 11. Will the Red Turtle have a PTA above $8,000? Yes 12. Will the Top 3 all be new entries/expanding films? 3000 13. Will Hidden Figures stay above La La Land? Yes 14. Will Underworld stay above Passengers? No 15. Will Monster Calls make less than $150k? Yes 16. Will any film in the top 20 drop more than 75%? 2000 Yes 17. Will Bye Bye Man stay above Monster Trucks? Yes 18. Will Sing cross $250M by the end of the weekend? No 19. Will any film drop more than 36% on Sunday? Yes 20. Will the XXX trilogy go down as the greatest of all time? 2000 It will go down as the most exXxtreme trilogy of all time. Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 4000 16/20 6000 17/20 9000 18/20 12000 19/20 16000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Split's 3 day gross. $26.1m 2. Predict XXX's Friday gross. $8.42m 3. What will Monster Truck's percentage drop be? 57.9% Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 1. Split 3. Hidden Figures 5. Sing 8. The Bye-Bye Man 11. The Founder 13. Live By Night

Moana passed 200m on December 30.

I kinda wanted to go see a movie tonight. When my brother and I saw Hidden Figures last night, his roommates went to Moonlight at the same time. But Moonlight isn't playing tonight. And everything else I kinda want to see would finish after midnight.

Hidden Figures is pretty fantastic. An excellent companion film to The Right Stuff.

Oh. I forgot to do my simple stupid projector this week. Busy weekend.

Moana could sneak into the top 10 for the 4-day because of that.

Boy estimated 143k showtimes on 11k screens for the opening weekend. Sadly, screen counts haven't been done since just before Mockingjay 1 opened.

1. Will Monster Trucks make less than $16m? Yes 2. Will Monster Trucks make less than $12m? 3000 Yes 3. Will Monster Trucks make less than $8m? Yes 4. Will Bye Bye Man make more than $6M? Yes 5. Will Bye Bye Man make more than $8M? 2000 No 6. Will Sleepless make more than $7.5M? No 7. Will Sleepless make more than $10M? No 8. Which New Opener (not expander) will have the highest grossing 3 day weekend? Monster Trucks 9. Will Patriots Day open at number 1? 2000 No 10. Will any new opener open in the top 3? No 11. Will Silence make more than $2.2M? Yes 12. Will Live by night enter the top 2? 3000 No 13. Will Hidden Figures stay above Rogue 1? Yes 14. Will Sing remain in the top 5? Yes 15. Will La La Land make more than $8.5M? Yes 16. Will any film in the top 20 drop less than 15% without increasing by more than 75 theatres? 2000 Yes 17. Will Some Like It Hot have a PTA above $2,700? Yes 18. Will Underworld drop more than 57%? No 19. Will Rogue One cross $500M? Yes 20. Will this weekend bring glory monstering back to the box office? 2000 I don't even know what that is. Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 4000 16/20 6000 17/20 9000 18/20 12000 19/20 16000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Monster Truck's 3 day gross. $7.41m 2. Predict Patriot's Day's Percentage increase from last weekend. 17,800% 3. What will Silence's PTA be? $2,864 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 1. Hidden Figures 4. La La Land 6. Live By Night 9. The Bye Bye Man 12. Why Him? 15. Manchester By the Sea

1. 200 2. Bride of Chucky 3. 52m

That single screen, chugging along.

Well, if you want to force everything into one of two buckets, that is amazing beyond all comprehension, or a flaming dumpster fire of failure, then, sure, Moana is spectacular. I don't find that dichotomy to be very useful. I'm quite comfortable calling it a very good performance that isn't particularly amazing. It had an opening on par with BH6 and is going to finish ~30m higher because of a more favorable release date. This isn't saying that Moana should have done Frozen numbers, or even had Frozen legs off of its opening, but as it stands, its legs are only going to be slightly better than Tangled's. (If you go b OW/final ratio, it would need 233m to match Tangled. If you go by 5-day/final ratio, it would need 240m.) Good? Yes. Spectacular? No.

Oh, in an overall context, it's fine. Just considering what Moana had been doing for the previous few weeks, it seemed like it could have gone ~1m higher this weekend, and didn't. It's still probably going to have a final tally right around 250m, quite good, but not spectacular.

Not a great hold by Moana, but considering how bad all holdovers got hammered, I suppose it's okay, relatively speaking.

Assuming the F/Sa estimates don't change... R1 would be about even with the estimate. Sing is about 900k higher. HF about 1.1m higher UBW 600k higher. LLL 200k higher. So the weekend would be about 1. HF 22.9 2. R1 21.9 3. Sing 20.4 4. UBW 13.7 5. LLL 10.3

WTF was Aaron Taylor-Johnson in to get his upset award? Because that's some far out beyond left field shit.

Somewhat oddly, while Jedi was the first movie I remember seeing in the theater, so I shouldn't have had an issue finding a movie, I grew up on military bases, so the only movie option was the base theater, which usually had one screen, and had to cycle through things to get to all releases. So I may have ended up waiting on things regardless. (Though I was young enough that I didn't really know or care.)

Well, I haven't done it in a while, but I wanted to plug some films into my simple, stupid box office predictor, now that we have a relatively normal week to use. First up: Rogue One A third week pull of 79.9m pushed the star wars spinoff to 455m. Which is pretty keen. Since the film came out, the conversation has been focused on whether or not it can gross more than The Force Awakens to become the biggest movie of all time. And the answer to that is "technically, yes." It probably passes TFA if it drops about 14-15% per week going forward. So, really, it's "realistically, no." But how about Avatar? Well, in order to make Star Wars a one-two punch at the top of the all time lists, it only needs to drop 20% per week. So, I guess the Cameron fans win this round. 700m can happen with only 24% drops, though. And 29% drops get it just barely above 650m. (28% drops have it slightly beating Titanic, if you really want to root for that.) 30% drops hit 640m. 35% drops are what's required to do 600m. 40% get to 575m. And 45% drops to 552m. 50% drops from here on out and it just edges out TDK. I don't have my calculator set up for any drops bigger than 59%, but even that gets it to 510m. So it would really need to drop off a cliff to fall under 500m. In order for @baumer's club to succeed, it would need to go back in time and earn less money. Anyway, 550m or a bit more seems like where it's going. TDK goes down and we finally have another film in the 500m range. Second: Sing (or is it "Sing!"?) The latest Illumination offenses to the senses (unless you're @WrathOfHan, I guess) pulled in 70.155m for it's second full week. And I'm sure that everyone's wondering "Can it beat Frozen?" The answer is: Yes, if it can start pulling in 25% drops from here on out. Can it beat SLOP? Yes, with 28% drops. How about Zootopia? 32% drops. 35% drops get it to 324m. 40% drops to 299m. 45% drops to 279m. 50% drops to 264m. In order to end up under Despicable Me, it will need to have more than 55% drops from here on out. ~280m feels like a target it's going for. Keep those thresholds in mind, though, because we need to look at Sing's biggest competitor for... something: Moana The latest WDAS musical earned just shy of 20m this week, to put its total just shy of 219m. Can it beat the last WDAS musical, Frozen? No, not it probably cannot. Even topping Zootopia, to become the biggest WDAS movie of the year, would need ~14% drops. 20% drops get it to 295m, so it needs to drop better than that to hit 300m. 25% drops to 277m. 30% drops to 265m. 35% drops are good for 255m. 40% hits 248m. (39% just crosses 250m.) 45% has it at 243m, putting it under TS2. 50% drops has it under 240m. So Sing is likely to end up on top. Moana needs to hold considerably better (~15% better), while it's only shown that it's likely to hold a bit better. I had been thinking that while Sing may end up ahead, it's probably be by about 10-20m in the end. More realistically, it should be a 20-30m gap. 280m to 255m, perhaps. It's almost a Shrek vs. Monsters, Inc. redo, all told. Last up? Everyone's favorite critical bomb but surprisingly okay box office contender: Passengers The Pratt & Lawrence joint pulled in almost 27m and pushed its total past the 70m mark. If it starts pulling in 20% drops, it will edge past... no, wait, Interstellar earned more than I thought. It needs ~18% drops to edge past it. Good luck on that. However it only needs 25% drops to get past 150m. 30% drops for about a 135m finish. 35% does 122m and change. 40% for 112m. 45% pulls a cool 105m. The magic number, though, seems to be 49%. It does that, it hits a century. It falls 50% from here on, and it's going to JUUUUUST miss it. (or rather, it looks like it's going to miss and miss and miss until Sony does some weird double feature with, um... Well, they'll probably try with Life, but then they'll have to try again so it will seriously be in July with Spider-Man when it actually happens. It's going to be Spectre all over again, isn't it? Seriously, Sony. How many times do you have to do this to us? I'll check again next week to see how things are holding up.

Wasn't Fox reportedly a bit miffed that they weren't even asked if they wanted to buy LFL? Also makes me wonder if Paramount had the opportunity to buy Marvel. Holy crap what would our movie landscape look like right now if those purchases had gone the other way?

Possibly. Actually, considering the relative performances between Moana and Sing over the past few weeks, I'd guess that Sing is playing somewhat younger.

A pair of tricky SOTMs this time around. For the La La one, the Musical slot is extremely hard, thanks to how close Enchanted and Into the Woods are on the list. Unlikely to thread that 200k needle. And those last couple of slots on 12 are hard. Heck, I could see Passengers as a legit option.

Hollywood: #3 Musicals: #5 Gosling: #1 Stone: #5

1. LEGO Batman 2. Rogue One 3. La La Land 4. Sing 5. Hidden Figures 6. Fifty Shades Darker

1. Will Underworld make more than $15m? Yes 2. Will Underworld make more than $22.5m? 3000 No 3. Will Rogue One make more than $22.5m? Yes 4. Will Rogue One make more than $27.5M? No 5. Will Sing make more than $24m? 2000 No 6. Will Sing make more than $28m? No 7. Will Rogue One hold onto number 1? Yes 8. Will Hidden Figures make more than $8.5M? Yes 9. Will A Monster Calls make more than $8.5M? 2000 No 10. Which will gross more this coming weekend: Hidden Figures, Monster Calls or Passengers? Hidden Figures 11. Will Moana stay in the top 6? No 12. Will Assassin's Creed cross $50M by the end of the weekend? 3000 Yes 13. Will Railroad Tigers have a PTA above $3000? Yes 14. Will Office Xmas Party stay above Jackie? No 15. Will fantastic Beasts finish the weekend with a Domestic total within $1M of Dr Strange's? No 16. Will any film drop more than 70% in the top 20? 2000 Yes 17. Will Paterson's PTA stay above $10,000? Yes 18. How many films will make more than $7.5M? 3000 Six 19. Will Trolls drop more than 55%? No 20. Will Passengers make the $80M I need it to this weekend in order for my preseason prediction to look good? 2000 If only you were so lucky. Bonus: 16/25 2000 17/25 3000 18/25 5000 19/25 7000 20/25 9000 21/25 12000 22/25 15000 23/25 18000 24/25 21000 25/25 25000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Underworld's 3 day gross. 17.4m 2. Predict Monster Calls' Percentage increase from last weekend. 9,876% 3. What will Manchester by the Sea's PTA be? $2,745 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 1. Rogue One 3. Hidden Figures 5. La La Land 8. Fences 11. Assassin's Creed 14. Collateral Beauty

Yeah, but that's highly unlikely. Tangled itself could be removed as a comparison, if only because of how wonky its late legs were to get it over 200m. If you do that, the average drops to 260m, which actually seems about right, given how it's held up and the relative lack of new competition for the next month.