Quigley

In holdovers, Angry Birds fell a further 49-50% this weekend, simiarly to its NA drop. $400M WW is likely but not locked.

I am too emotionally biased to make a good estimation but I think that, if it is marketed well and has decent WOM, then it could stay around the same levels thanks to the guaranteed increase in China. I'll wait for the first trailer to give a precise estimate, but at the moment I don't think it can make less than $700M OS.

Horrible drop in Greece too. About -84.3% compared to Alice. For more comps with Disney live action films and for other data on this weekend's box office in Greece, click here.

Last weekend was barely lower than its opening.

I still think the film underperformed. That doesn't mean it wasn't profitable or that Disney has any reason to feel disapointed.

Weekend 26-29/05/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 X-Men: Apocalypse 15,773 -62.7% 85,174 2 2 Alice Through the Looking Glass 13,083 N/A 13,083 1 3 The Nice Guys 12,537 N/A 12,537 1 4 Angry Birds 8,095 -62.0% 71,813 3 5 Truth 3,586 N/A 3,586 1 6 Captain America: Civil War 3,289 -66.9% 209,465 4 7 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 1,600 -73.9% 12,114 2 8 Comme un avion [French] 1,573 N/A 1,573 1 9 The Jungle Book 1,284 -63.9% 76,734 6 10 The Man Who Knew Infinity 1,013 -73.7% 16,144 3 Source: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/3133/box-office-i-aliki-den-poulaei-pia-edo What a weekend! Very unexpected results with dramatic drops across the board and anemic openers. The biggest surprise is definitely the dissapointing opening of 'Alice 2'. What a complete waste of those 181 screens it played on. It has registered the lowest opening for a Disney live-action film since 2008 (I haven't compiled data for years before that). A truly horrifying opening, which, coupled with the dismal opening of 'The Jungle Book', indicates that Disney is in big trouble. Of course, in the bigger scheme, Disney has hit it out of the park this year and a shortfall in a small market like Greece is something they can easily ignore. Disney live-action (since 2008) Title Opening weekend Totals Multiple National Treasures: Book of Secrets 85,000 187,428 2.21 Alice in Wonderland 83,183 243,710 2.93 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 60,569 176,791 2.92 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian 49,818 141,755 2.85 Maleficent 45,705 164,394 3.60 Cinderella 44,917 138,850 3.09 The Lone Ranger 33,255 96,000-99,000 2.93 John Carter 22,066 49,530 2.24 Oz the Great and Powerful 21,936 80,104 3.65 Tomorrowland 21,441 42,039 1.96 The Jungle Book 20,488 76,734 3.75 The Sorcerer's Apprentice 20,479 77,303 3.77 Tron: Legacy 19,262 48,375 2.51 Alice Through the Looking Glass 13,083 – – (Films in yellow are still playing) Surprisingly, though, as seen in the above table, 'The Jungle Book' will likely end up with the biggest multiple. No doubt this is an indication of how good the film was, something I am not expecting to happen for 'Alice 2'. The fact that its predecessor had such a large opening makes this opening even worse than it may seem. 'Alice 2' actually came close to opening in 3rd place because of 'The Nice Guys', which had potential, apart from the fact that no one knew what sort of movie it is or that it even exists, thanks to the lack of promotion. As a result, 'Apocalypse' managed another 1st place finish in its sophomore frame. Its % drop was noticeably better than both 'BvS' and 'Civil War' and somewhat worse than 'Deadpool'. Title 2nd-weekend drop Notes Marvel's the Avengers 49.9% The Dark Knight 52.0% Iron Man 52.9% (Athens only) Deadpool 59.1% Iron Man 2 59.2% (Athens only) Avengers: Age of Ultron 62.6% Spider-Man 3 62.7% (Athens only) X-Men: Apocalypse 62.7% Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 65.7% Captain America: Civil War 69.0% It was also worse than the 46.6% drop of 'Days of Future Past' and the 54.5% drop of 'First Class'. It doesn't look like it can reach far over 100K and surpassing 'Days of Future Past' will be quite tough, despite its promising opening. As for other holdovers, 'Angry Birds' will likely miss 100K and 'Civil War' won't out-run 'Deadpool', although it has at least surpassed 'Iron Man 3', a feat it will not manage in worldwide grosses. 'Truth', 'Neighbors 2', 'Comme un avion' and 'The Man Who Knew Infinity' have generated completely uninteresting results, while 'The Jungle Book' may just about surpass 'Oz'. It really feels like Disney live action is a hit-or-miss business. Next week, we've got 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2'. The first one made 4,595 admissions upon opening in 10th place, so if you thought that the 64,439 admissions sold this frame in Greece were very low, wait 'til next week for a number even more horrendous. Of course, it's nothing bizarre for this time of year but it does make following the box office quite boring.

Box office deadness will be undone when Finding Dory arrives

Holdovers dropped 57% which is not bad but also nothing encouraging. All eyes on China's release.

X-Men Franchise Comparison Title Opening weekend (Athens) Opening weekend (Greece) Total (Greece) X-Men Origins: Wolverine 43,193 61,520 143,414 X-Men: The Last Stand 34,900 – – X2: X-Men United 34,000 – 169,100 X-Men: Apocalypse 21,410 42,310 – X-Men: Days of Future Past 21,111 34,507 120,000* X-Men: First Class 18,227 28,801 84,386 The Wolverine 16,950 23,702 105,000* *These are my estimates of the final. DoFP dropped out of the Top 10 with 114,947 admissions (2,875 admissions that weekend) and Wolverine with 100,125 admisssions (2,233 admissions that weekend). No data was found on the original X-Men.

Was Alice released on a holiday?

At today's ER, Alice made $554M and Maleficent made $401M. Furthermore, across the same range of territories as Alice 2 is opening this weekend, and at current ER, Alice made $98M and Maleficent made $83M. http://deadline.com/2016/05/alice-through-the-looking-glass-warcraft-international-box-office-preview-1201762358/ So it seems like anything around $500M OS would not be bad at all. And $400M would be OK. Domestically, anything above $250M would be great. Something around $200M is more likely, if not lower. So I guess we're looking at $600M WW being quite likely.

$800M is the floor for this. $1B in play.

Weekend 19-22/05/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 X-Men: Apocalypse 42,310 N/A 42,310 1 2 Angry Birds 21,297 -33.9% 60,651 2 3 Captain America: Civil War 9,950 -68.5% 200,477 3 4 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 6,139 N/A 6,139 1 5 The Man Who Knew Infinity 3,847 -37.0% 13,318 2 6 The Jungle Book 3,560 -0.5% 75,222 5 7 Robinson Crusoe [English-language Belgian-French] 1,370 +43.9% 19,990 5 8 El Cuerpo [Spanish] 1,136 N/A 1,136 1 9 Friend Request 1,086 -53.2% 10,955 3 10 The Huntsman: Winter's War 973 -69.9% 48,818 4 Source: http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-apocalypse-gets-the-top-spot/

Zootopia's 5th weekend was higher than Big Hero 6's 5th weekend but the latter's total was ¥2B more at this point. Big Hero 6 also didn't drop more than 28% for 6 more weekends. Not saying Zootopia can't manage to out-gross it, but it's got a long way to go. It needs drops smaller than 15% to do it, which is possible but I don't plan to build up my expectations at this point.

Bottom line is that in dollars, it did worse than DoFP. In local currency (which is the equivalent of saying "current exchange rates"), Apocalypse did better but that doesn't account for the fact that, due to appreciation of the dollar, Apocalypse will have a smaller OS gross when its run wraps up.

Angry Birds dropped 46% this weekend in holdover markets.

Naah, should pass $1B by June 5

Still hoping for $1B WW although it seems like Japan and South Korea will have to score big numbers to get there.

The drops in OS and domestic weekends are going from mediocre to bad. IM3 was at $40.2M and $35.8M at same point, respectively.

Judging by other markets, probably falling behind DoFP. Not good.

Wait until later in the summer. It's gonna be worse: Finding Dory, BFG, Pets, Ice Age, Independence Day, Ghostbusters, Star Trek, Jason Bourne

$240M budget? That's huge. Even $600M won't be enough to break even (solely from the theatrical gross).

Two more weekends like this and $1B is done.

Sensational hold

The floor is Big Hero 6's 15x multiple.