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Quigley

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Everything posted by Quigley

  1. Quigley
    Maleficent will finish the weekend with ~$46M in Japan and a ~$493-4M ONA total. At the WW BO, X-Men: DofP is going down. I wonder though if GotG could out-gross Maleficent, a possibility with increased likeliness since the early numbers came in (higher than Cap 2 in NA and elsewhere).
  2. Quigley
    Sony is in big trouble and on top of everything Nikki Finke is spilling all their secrets. Totally out of control and loving it!
  3. Quigley
    I don't believe it can make $100M but anything above $80M will be unbelievably amazing.
  4. Quigley
    Just like Japan box office w/o Frozen.
  5. Quigley
    $500M OS is very likely. If it reaches $750M, it will have to make at least $510M OS (still a possibility, but less likely)
  6. Quigley
    It brought in about ~$10M this past week. There's no way it will only make another $10M from now on with summer and Obon holidays coming soon. I say $15M at least from Japan.
  7. Quigley
    Disney continues to surprise. Cap 2 beat TASM 2 and they're not even letting Fox enjoy their triumph with X-Men. They're taking that away as well. I wonder what Guardians of the Galaxy will achieve. What is definite is that Disney will cross $2B overseas.
  8. Quigley
    Let's face it. Disney desperately slated Planes 2 for this summer when they pushed A Good Dinosaur back to 2015, because otherwise How to Train Your Dragon 2 would be the only summer toon. They were hoping to add some competition.They got lucky cuz after four $250M+ 3D animated films in 9 months (MU, DM2, Frozen, LEGO), Americans didn't wanna pay for another 3D animated film. So HtTYD2 failed. I dont think Disney expected anything better than what Planes 2 did anyway.
  9. Quigley
    It's ridiculous, they've been inflating the weekend grosses with entire weeks of previews. With Brazil, France, Italy, Germany and Belgium opening this weekend, the number will be inflated once again. At least by tomorrow all the numbers will be in. No previews can be hidden. And when weekend actuals are published at Box Office Mojo, we'll know how much of the grosses reported tomorrow are previews and thus we will be able to make a reasonable prediction for its final overseas gross.
  10. Quigley
    The main question of the past few weeks has been why Box Office Mojo isn't using EntGroup's numbers for TF4 although it has been using EntGroup's numbers for all other films. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2014&wk=26&p=new http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2014&wk=27&p=new http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2014&wk=28&p=new http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=2014-06-23 http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=2014-06-30 http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=2014-07-07 (I know, for most movies the grosses aren't exactly the same cuz EntGroup updates the charts with more accurate grosses after one week but Box Office Mojo doesn't. However, for Transformers 4, the grosses were very different even before EntGroup updated them.)
  11. Quigley
    Frozen looking bad.
  12. Quigley
    1. Comparison with TASM 2 is irrelevant. 2. What is your source?
  13. Quigley
    Other countries (as percentage of TF3 by the end of its second weekend) New Zealand: 81% South Africa: 63% Hungary: 65%
  14. Quigley
    But I'm talking about the overseas average. When taking into account Asia, Latin America and Europe, the average (and this is a very rough estimate obviously) will be about 80% of TF3.
  15. Quigley
    If you remove the China gross, TF4 earned 89% of TF3 across the same territories and during the same point in their run. Boxoffice.com says that it has earned 21% when including China, so w/o China it's: (400.9 - 212.8) / (400.9 / 1.21 - 119.4) = 88.8% And this gross is mostly from Asian territories which were expected to be huge. Imagine if we add less enthusiastic Latin America and bored Europe. That percentage could drop to 80%. HTTYD2 and Dawn Planet Apes could prove to be serious competition, especially since both are in 3-D. Another piece of evidence that suggests that Europe grosses will be weak is Australia, a mature market where TF4 has earned only 60% (17.7 / 29.3 = 0.6) of what TF3 made by its second weekend. TF3 made about $600M outside China and North America. => 600 * 0.8 = $480M China may reach $300M Box Office Mojo estimates TF4 will reach $245-265M in NA. 480 + 300 + 250 = $1030M. So chances are it will reach $1B, although it is far from guaranteed at this point.
  16. Quigley
    Yeah, well, this summer has shown that the American box office can be far more front-loaded than expected. Up until now there hasn't been a single movie to dominate for more than one weekend during the summer. And I wish that was due to very goood openings, but it's actually because of very bad legs. The American BO used to be way less front-loaded but now it's just a matter of what the film makes up until its first 10 days. Then everything is useless.
  17. Quigley
    I don't think there's a big difference between the two. If it manages one, it will likely achieve the other too.
  18. Quigley
    Is this weekend or weekly? If it is weekend, I assume it means that Frozen hasn't scored the highest-grossing 16th weekend of all time, right?
  19. Quigley
    All of them are American box office websites. Keep that in mind.
  20. Quigley
    I agree. Saying that they subtracted from China gross to add to NA is ridiculous.
  21. Quigley
    Well, one thing's almost for sure, Frozen has remained for 16 weekends at #1, tying Spirited Away's record (for films since 1998, of course, according to Corpse). That is still breath-takingly amazing and I think it can still surpass Titanic (more like what I'm hoping for but at least there's still hope). I'm sure The Avengers 2 will be even more spectacular (although not necessarily - or even likely - in Japan).
  22. Quigley
    Um, even Captain America 2 didn't reach $100M. Guardians of the Galaxy earning $100M on OW is out of the question. The only possibility is that Dawn of the Planet of the Apes may reach $100M on OW but even that is higly unlikely. For the first time since 2003, summer will have no $100M opener.
  23. Quigley
    So what about OD gross? Any estimate? If not, how long do we have to wait?
  24. Quigley
    I asked Subers on Twitter and he said he can't be bothered. The guy is pathetic.
  25. Quigley
    That midnight number for China is wrong. In the China forum they say it made 20.5M yuan / $3.3M. Still a record for midnight (prior record is IM3 at 12.4M yuan / $2.1M). Nevertheless, I think it is a foregone conclusion that $1B is out of the question. NA will drop at least $100M from TF3, my guess is $115M drop (total will be $237M). China may earn $50M more than TF3. It must lose another $60M from the rest of the world to drop below $1B and I think the World Cup can make that happen, because Europe would decrease anyway and now there are many Latin American countries still playing in the World Cup so Latin America will also see a decrease (in some countries it opens on the weekend of the World Cup final and third place match). Asia is not enough to compensate. In the countries that it opens after the World Cup finishes, it will be too close to Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which I believe will be very successful.
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