Quigley

Depends on WOM. Also, last weekend was not ordinary since Saturday was a workday. So the % drops will possibly be smaller...

At what website can you find this data?

Wednesday numbers?

Frozen surpassed the Hobbit 2 in Spain (in euros), to become the highest-grossing film of 2013 Frozen: €17,622,106 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/spain/?yr=2014&wk=41&currency=local&p=.htm Hobbit 2: €17,123,673 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/spain/?yr=2014&wk=13&currency=local&p=.htm

I thought it was 30.4M yuan... Was there an update?

The photo finish for second place (which ended up not being a photo finish) was quite interesting. Estimates were Actuals were GotG 28M, 31.3M Annabelle 27M 28.1M Gone Girl 27M 26.9

$326.1M in NA and $363.9M elsewhere for a $690M worldwide total. (China managed $29.8M according to actuals) http://deadline.com/2014/10/international-box-office-china-guardians-galaxy-annabelle-gone-girl-849934/ It also made $5M in China on Monday so it's already at $695M. http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/678-china-box-office-guardians-of-the-galaxy-27m-3-days/?p=1716277

$29.8M is the actual for Guardians according to Disney http://deadline.com/2014/10/international-box-office-china-guardians-galaxy-annabelle-gone-girl-849934/

I agree with pretty much everything. It is a nice analysis. I understand that comparing it to the Croods (which is embarassing for DWA, given that the two films made about the same amount of money) and Kung Fu Panda isn't fair because they weren't sequels so here's a fair comparison: Increase of animated sequel over original (overseas) HTTYD 2 had the 6th biggest increase on the list (out of 11 films) which is average - not good, not bad. It also has the 6th biggest gross on the list (behind DM2, KFP2, Shrek 2, MU, IA2). With little competition (e.g. MU and DM2 were competing, same for Cars 2 and KFP2), the China boom and years of inflation, the gross is not average, it is a bit on the disappointing side.

Big 5 lineup is good. To be honest, and this is just a personal opinion, it was way better when Pirates of the Caribbean had two films in the Big 5 (DMC at 3rd and AWE at 5th) but, oh well... franchises don't (always) last forever. That being said, Avengers 2 wil definitely end up in the Top 5 (with many other candidates - like Bond 24 and Star Wars 7 following in 2015).

Hope so. 2016 is gonna be a big year, as in... huge.

Chances of surpassing Maleficent have improved significantly.

I hope that, unlike what Paramount did for TF4 and what Fox did for Apes 2, Disney's actuals will agree with EntGroup and that they will be above $30M.

It's true that these movies had unique runsas well. Let's assume two films have the same opening day gross (Friday) but for one of the films, Saturday is a workday. On a normal weekend, the film would make Fri 10, Sat 15 and Sun 12 (overall 37). For a weekend with a workday Saturday, it would be Fri 10, Sat 19, Sun 15 (overall 44). In one case, multiplier is 3.7; in the otehr it's 4.4. My explanation: On normal weekends: Friday mornings are not busy but afternoons and evenings are quite busy (because Sat isn't a workday). Saturday mornings are a bit busier but afternoons and evenings are about the same (cuz Sunday isn't a workday). On this weekend, Friday mornings, afternoons and evenings are not very big cuz Fri and Sat are workdays. On Sat, mornings are slow too, but there is a masssive urge to go Sat evening cuz Sunday isn't a workday. It is the only evening for which the following day isn't a workday so people will do anything to go see the film they want. This is a theory and actually one that is based on limited evidence and an attempt to use common sense (which isn't always valid). Moviegoing habits vary greatly from country to country so China could possibly be an exception.

Don't worry about past box office data: a lot of it has been saved on archive.org (Internet Archive Wayback Machine). **IMPORTANT** You can even navigate your way through Box Office Mojo if every link you click has been archived.

Box Office Mojo is dead!

Earlier today in LA, California, the closure of a popular box office site caused mayhem:

Well if Sat's a workday, that's impressive. OD in yuan Cap 2: 62.3M TASM 2: 60.5M DoFP: 68.4M Apes 2: 91.5M GotG isn't exceptional but luckily the weekend multiplier will be higher than those films.

But I suppose they have pricier tickets as well.

Because then it become's the second biggest summer film of the year. If it ends up doing $30M in Italy, it won't need $75M in China to surpass Maleficent, so even $55M in China will be satisfactory.

If you actually want to compare the box-office runs with respect to population, then use number of tickets - not gross. Titanic had a higher Japan gross in yen than Frozen but weren't tickets more expensive? That means Frozen sold more tickets. You also hace to divide that by the population, so we're obviously only making apporximations here.

Let's put this in perspective: HTTYD2 made less than KFP2 and Ice Age 2. It barely surpassed Madagascar 2, while Croods and Tangled are close behind. It was nowhere close to the Shrek sequels or Madagascar 3. Despite years of inflation, 3D and IMAX tickets and a Chinese-appealing theme (dragons), it still performed averagely in WW grosses - or slightly better than average, if you're optimistic. With respect to pre-release expectations, it was a disappointment. Take into account the scarcity of family fare this summer and you basically have a film that narrowly escaped disaster status. Please don't say that it earned more than HTTYD. It did but Shrek and Madagascar earned about the same amount as HTTYD - a lot earlier than the latter - and their sequels have nevertheless been highly succesful (even Mad 2's gross was quite impressive at the time).

I want whatever's necessary to bring it above Maleficent in WW grosses (after taking Italy into account as well).

Indeed. TF4 may have earned $300M+ in China, but that's because of the booming economy and the rapidly increasing number of screens. Conversely, growth in Japan was minimal, if it existed at all. Spirited Away is probably the only other run in an individual country that one can arguably say was better. However, since Japan was a foreign market for Frozen but not for SA, the runs seem equally impressive.

As long as Guardians reaches $70M by the end of its run, I don't care who tops it.