miketheavenger

While I don't think this movie is gonna make much more than Dawn, I would be surprised if it misses 60m. It's not going to be that much more frontloaded than the other movies.

Yes, but it's also the sixth Spider-Man film in 15 years and in many people's eyes the first good Spider-Man film since 2004, which means that this movie somewhat payed for the sins of the last three. If the Amazing Spider-Man films never happened and this would be the first SM film in 10 years, I would agree with you. But some people are feeling Spidey fatigue and are just not going to see this film regardless of how reviews/word-of-mouth is. Wonder Woman on the other hand has become an event film, and because it's the sixth SM movie, Homecoming is not an event no matter the reviews and word-of-mouth. Nobody is saying that it's gonna fall off a cliff from now on, it won't, but it's not going to have WW legs, either.

Was hoping for better results for DM3 and Spider-Man. Hopefully it will improve over the weekend thanks to worse weather.

The fact that Tom Holland is just a year older than me and he's playing Spider-Man makes me feel really bad about myself.

It's the only CBM to crack the 5m mark. Beside the original Superman (1978) no other CBM has even reached 4m admissions, so SM1 is really an outlier and shouldn't be taken as the standard for Spider-Man films here.

Last Jedi will make less, but if Episode IX stays in the summer, it will make 250m+. Can't see any other movie doing it in the next few years.

Depending on how it behaves on Thursday, low 50-millions seem like the high end for the weekend.

Expected drop since Discount Tuesdays get stronger every year. Over/under 50m for the second weekend seems likely, though I want to see how it behaves on Thursday before I decide which side to take.

I thought Valerian isn't being released until next week.

August may not have a SS/GotG-level blockbuster this year, but it should still be exciting. Many movies will probably be at least medium-sized hits plus there's gonna be a couple strong July holdovers. IMO August this year is looking better than 2015.

Yes, but it will likely also lead to big drops today. Just don't Panic if Spider-Man drops 35% tomorrow if it has a strong Tuesday.

Imagine if @That One Guy was preparing for a showing of Valerian and they would show Beauty and the Beast instead.

Transformers once again the only movie in the Top 20 that fell 60%+. Man, that movie just died after OW. Will probably join Alien: Covenant and The Mummy as the most frontloaded blockbuster this summer.

Still no actuals? Is Sony looking in Puerto Rico to get Homecoming over SM1's OW or why does it take so long?

I think it's fair to say that CBM were huge until the Schumacher Batman films killed the momentum. Then it got revived with X-Men/Spider-Man and hit the renaissance with the start of the MCU and Nolan's Batman trilogy and it's been there ever since.

I think the actual number won't differ too much from the estimate. Probably a million in either direction at most.

It's already ahead of TS and will overtake Ice Age soon. It will pass Shrek with the next entry in the franchise, so unless Shrek 5 happens, it'll take the record. Edit: Actually, given its performance so far, DM3 could take the franchise above Shrek already, and that's with just four movies (compared to five for Shrek).

If JL gets BvS-level reception (or close to it) I can easily see it happening. With Whedon taking over from Snyder that seems unlikely, though. But even if it does get good reception it's not guaranteed at all to hit 400m.

In Germany, DM3 looks like it will drop from Minions by a decent amount, but make more than DM2. That seems to be the trend in a lot of markets. DM2 did 603m OS with a much lower Chinese gross than DM3 will have. So I think 700m OS is definitely a possibility. 800m is very unlikely, though unless it has amazing legs.

IMO 850 is locked. If it does 150 in China and 230 DOM it'll need about 470m from other OS markets. Considering how well it's doing in most territories, that doesn't seem too hard. I think 900m+ is very likely.

The only MCU films that managed a 3x were Iron Man, Avengers, GotG 1 and Ant-Man. It's doubtful that Spider-Man joins them, but again a 2.6-2.8x would be really good and pretty much guarantees for the sequel to increase (provided it's also good, of course).

Spider-Man was a little more frontloaded than expected, but a weekend around 117m is nothing to sneeze at. Slightly higher than Raimi's SM1 (I know that was 15 years ago, but still). It's going to have Marvel-typical legs, so around 320-330m total I think.

I think Spider-Man is gonna do quite well (for a CBM at least). It should do around TASM 1 numbers. Dunkirk should also be a hit thanks to Nolan and especially the Setting. Valerian looks like a flop unfortunately.

For what it's worth, my screening earlier was quite packed despite amazing weather. Seems like the Minions are stronger than the sun.

2nd trend: DM3: 600-800k (depending on weather) TF5: 100k (-65%, ouch) Pubertier: 60k Rough Night: 55k (-55%) Baywatch: 50k (-64%, also ouch)